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April 21, 2009

Meaningless Advanced Rankings

Filed under: Basketball,Prognostications — Chas @ 12:55 pm

Making even premature pre-pre-season predictions of basketball top-25s are no more than rough drafts,  until after the deadline for withdrawing from the NBA draft. At which time, they at least have some basis.

Most exclude Pitt at this point. Not surprising given what Pitt has lost from the starting line-up. As Andy Katz summerized:

The hardest teams to figure out were Pitt and Connecticut. The Panthers will be good, but losing seniors Levance Fields, Sam Young, Tyrell Biggs and now DeJuan Blair makes it hard to predict how good the Panthers will be early in the season. The recruiting was strong, and the rebuilding will begin in earnest. The Huskies are expected to lose Hasheem Thabeet to go along with the departure of seniors A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien and Craig Austrie. Stanley Robinson could declare, too, and stay in the draft. That would leave Kemba Walker and the return of a healthy Jerome Dyson on the perimeter as the most productive returning players. The gaping hole inside made it hard to be sold on the Huskies — yet.

That is not absurd thinking. Putting Pitt in a pre-season top-25 would be highly speculative. Any team that loses its top 3 scorers and minutes played, leading rebounder, leading assist guy would be expected to be on the outside. Pitt has a top-25 recruiting class coming in, but objectively looking at the players remaining as well makes it very speculative as to what kind of jump each will make.

So, I was stunned when I actually saw Pitt in the top-25 of any rankings.

11. Pitt. DeJuan Blair is gone. But the Panthers’ frontcourt remains imposing with Dante Taylor.

That seems a bit high. Just a sign of what kind of respect Pitt and Coach Jamie Dixon has earned with the sustained performance over this decade regardless of the players.





I’m a Pitt fan through and through but am shocked to see thme at 11 .. but was more shocked to see Syracuse as 1 (although DeCoursey did think flynn was coming back.)

However, I see that Scottie Reynolds is putting his name in … Pitt may finish near the top of the Big East next year by default, if most of these guys who are declaring do go. I would not be susprised to see Pitt be a Top 20 team next year, but don’t expect a high NCAA seed. The only thing for certain is that the BE will not be anywhere near as good next year as it was this year.

Comment by w bill 04.21.09 @ 2:23 pm

This coming season will be one of the most mysterious in a while. But at least lower expectations will make it a bit more relaxing for fans.

If Jamie can pull it off he’ll earn his place among the elite coaches.

Comment by steve 04.21.09 @ 3:44 pm

That DeCourcy is nuts. He’s consistently in left field when it comes to predictions. He needs to find a new line of work.

Even if Flynn were coming back, hasn’t he seen enough Cuse games to know that Onuaku and Jackson just aren’t good enough inside to deserve such a rating?

I don’t like what’s happened to college basketball in terms of recruiting and everybody leaving early, but at least next year shapes us to be more wide open.

I think Kansas and MSU have the potential to be better than the pack, but certainly nothing like Carolina was this year. Should be fun…..

Comment by hugh green 04.21.09 @ 4:01 pm

Blair already fired the attorney who was handling his marketing. More proof that this was a poorly planned endeavor. Still, best of luck to him.

Comment by Gas 04.21.09 @ 5:51 pm

off topic but Dejuan Blair just signed on with Happy Walters, a (regular) sports agent that was introduced to him by T Biggs … and dropped the trusted family attorney that he signed with 2 weeks ago. (At least he didn’t find this agent thru an internet search)

Comment by w bill 04.21.09 @ 5:51 pm

imma twist up a philly, once im dun smokin that shit, guaranteed act silly

Comment by big mike 04.21.09 @ 6:41 pm

link to post-gazette.com

That’s the Blair article.

It sure does look like a giant mess. Tyrell Biggs has an agent??? This guy currently represents a grand total of ONE NBA player at present: Memphis one-and-done from a few years ago, Shawne Williams. He bounced out of Memphis for the greener pastures of….10 minutes a night for Dallas/Indiana.

Comment by maz. 04.21.09 @ 6:48 pm

11 is way too high. This team will be good, maybe even electric at times but not a top 20 team going into the season.

Comment by Panthoor 04.21.09 @ 7:36 pm

Regarding DeJuan Blair – it’s looking more and more like his choice was one poorly planned decision.

His new agent is known for his musical entertainment clients, not sports figures or BB players, which makes me think Blair has designs of stardom outside of the BB court. Then I read that his aunt will quit her teaching job to be on Blair’s payroll… yes, his employee… wherever he ends up.

OK. We can probably start taking bets on when he’ll declare bankruptcy now.

Comment by Reed 04.22.09 @ 3:39 am

actually, IMO having his aunt (who is a school teacher) living with him seems to be the one rational decision that he has made recently.

Comment by w bill 04.22.09 @ 8:54 am

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