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April 13, 2009

The decision by DeJuan Blair to not just turn pro, but to eliminate the chance of his return has sparked plenty of debate and discussion. Much of it on the subject of, “Why?”

Please, tell me:

Where’s the harm in keeping all of your options?

“I’m guaranteed being a first-round pick,” Blair said at his news conference.

NBA scouts tell me differently.

They say — as of this moment — that Blair should be picked in the bottom half of the first round.

But they also say — quite definitively — that there is no guarantee.

Even those who agree with the mock draft projections, find themselves questioning the decision to go irrevocable.

At the very least, I see Blair making an impact in the League in the Brandon Bass/Leon Powe fashion, an energy rebounder off the bench who’s invariably more valuable to a contender than to a Lottery team.

But listed at 6-6 or 6-7, with a game that’s strictly low-post and under the glass, Blair is a lock to get drafted lower than his talent warrants. It also doesn’t help that he’s got a history of knee surgeries, and he’s struggled to keep his weight under control in the past. Eliminating the possibility of pulling his name out of the draft before teams even get to take his true measurements and test out his knees could come back to bite Blair in the end.

Then again, I can see why going all-in is the smart play. First, there’s the risk of getting injured again if Blair goes back to college. And it’s not like he’s going to grow any taller if he stays at Pitt. If Blair measures out to be 6-6 or even 6-5, another All-American campaign and constant double-doubles won’t make him any more attractive to NBA scouts. By coming out now, Blair at least has youth and potential on his side (he turns 20 this month), and the most recent memories of him are of a relentless warrior who led a team that was ranked No. 1 in the country at one time.

With the NBA season coming to its end, the few teams that can’t make the playoffs start to focus on the draft. That means the local media there is focused on who they might pick.

The problem is that the NBA draft — like the NFL draft — is full of misinformation. What a team says versus what it does are different things.

The Indiana Pacers, for example are likely picking at the end of the lottery. Here’s what they are saying they need — and thus where the speculation goes.

“We need an athletic big who has a little bit of nastiness offensively and defensively within 10 feet of the basket,” O’Brien said before Saturday’s game against the Detroit Pistons. “That would be our top priority.”

Of course, there aren’t a lot of those kinds of players in this draft. Blake Griffin surely will go first. Then there are names like Arizona’s Jordan Hill, Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson and my early favorite, Pitt’s DeJuan Blair.

“We could try to get that player in a number of ways,” O’Brien said. “We’ve got a little bit of money to work with. There are trade possibilities. The problem is, if it’s a rookie, it’s a rookie. To ask a rookie to be that tough, nasty hombre inside, that’s a lot to ask.”

If the power forward the Pacers want isn’t available when they pick, they won’t hesitate to jump on the point guard of the future. How does Ty Lawson of North Carolina sound? Or Memphis’ Tyreke Evans?

Or how about New Jersey?

Nets team president Rod Thorn likely will dial NBA central casting this summer with a simple but awfully hard-to-fill request.

“Get me a moose.”

That will be among the Nets’ chief priorities this offseason — if not the No. 1 quest. In a perfect world, a 25-year-old Charles Oakley would walk into Thorn’s office, solving several major headaches.

“A guy who can defend, a guy who can rebound, a guy who does all the little dirty work out on the floor, sets screens,” Thorn said. “A guy like that is invaluable.”

And a guy like that answers the Nets’ glaring needs — defense and rebounding — as they move forward from a second straight lottery season.

“We need a guy who just cleans up the glass,” said Vince Carter, who sees some of that in Ryan Anderson. “We have a lot of scoring. We have a lot of shooters.”

As DraftExpress observes, “Sounds like DeJuan Blair to us. New Jersey currently is slated to draft 10th or 11th depending on tiebreakers at the moment, unless a shake-up occurs in the lottery.”

All of that means nothing at this point. It’s just chatter and speculation with more than two months before the draft. I keep coming back to what Darrelle Porter said the day before Blair made his announcement.

“I think DeJuan’s confident in his abilities and confident enough to put his name in, so he’ll probably stay in,” Porter said. “It’s hard to tell someone to come back and work on some things when he’s looking at a guaranteed contract. It’s been a goal of his for a long time.

“Now, he’s got a chance to reach his dream.”

He believes in his own abilities. He has always succeeded when people told him he couldn’t. He’s used it as fuel. As motivation. I have no doubt, he is saving every comment he reads saying he’s making a mistake or questioning the decsisions. That is just more for him to motivate.

Like everyone else, I hope it is enough.





It will be interesting to see if the marketing deal with his current attorney (James Cook) yields anything in the next 2 months. I think this will yield some insight into his decision-making, and also whether going “all-in” was the right move. Clearly, money is a factor for Blair and his family – I don’t mean that as a criticism, just an observable reality. Still, he could have left the option to return open, just in case. Perhaps money is a larger issue than any of us realize, and he really needs the endorsement dollars to flow sooner rather than later. If deals are there for the signing now, then it may be worthwhile for him, in his present circumstances, to jump on them immediately. I guess we’ll see…

In related news, at least one member of the national media thinks Pitt will be back in the tournament next year. Joe Lunardi released his first Bracketology prediction for next season, and has Pitt as an 8 seed, which is not the lowest Big East team rated. Meaningless fun? More likely than not, but still, it is an indication that not everyone believes the bottom will fall out next year.

link to sports.espn.go.com

Comment by Pantherman13 04.13.09 @ 12:59 pm

The Leon Powe comparison is apt. People have been bringing up Glen Davis for months, and I kept thinking “there’s a guy on Davis’ team who is a much better comparison”. Davis has some perimeter skills that are beyond Blair, but Blair is quite a bit like Powe — an absolute beast inside and a guy who, so far, has been able to guard taller players. Powe’s been able to guard NBA-quality big men; I hope DeJuan is able to as well.

I’d also much rather see him go to a contender where he can develop gradually and be used productively as a rebounder and energy guy off the bench. He can watch and learn from guys who are competing to win every night, rather than learning the bad habits and questionable attitudes and selfish vibe that hangs around NBA bottom-dwelling teams.

Comment by hugh green 04.13.09 @ 2:18 pm

Powe is much, much more athletic than Blair. However Blair is a better rebounder. I like the oakley comparison. If Blair can get in better shape he can rebound like oak, but he will never be as good of a defender. He will be a better player offensively than oak though. Too bad he can’t grow another inch or inch and a half. He would be a top 5 pick.

Comment by Omar 04.13.09 @ 3:28 pm

Agree Powe is somewhat more athletic than Blair, but Blair is really agile for his bulk, which is one reason he’s such a great rebounder. Think what they can give a team is pretty similar.

Not quite sure I get the Oakley comparison. Oakley’s career is awfully impressive for Blair to aspire to…..but hey, you have to have dreams. Oakley was an incredible rebounder and dfender because of his strength and smarts and he developed a face-up jumper from 10-15, which was really valuable to have. At 6’8″ or 9″, 250 lbs, he was what you’d draw on paper if you wanted to create a defensive power forward.

Blair’s defense depends on quickness, agility and sneaky hands and he’s always going to be under-sized for the position. Two inches would get him to 6’7″ and he’d still be under-sized to play inside in the association. (Stood beside him at one of the post-game Pitt parties in Boston with all my hooping buddies and the 6’6″ and 6’7″ guys in our group were clearly taller than Blair. But he was WAYYYYYY wider……wow.)

He may be able to develop some better offensive moves than Oakley, who didn’t have any, but without that face-up jumper the buckets are going to come tough against all those long arms. I guess a lot of it depends on his willingness to work with those NBA ass’t coaches on his game. My general take is that not too many of today’s kids are willing to put in the sweat to develop their game….but maybe he’s the exception. Either way, he can still be a good energy guy and rebounder.

Comment by hugh green 04.13.09 @ 5:31 pm

The one aspect of Blair’s game that could have been improved by coming back was his jump shooting. Any NBA forward worth a roster spot has a 10-15 foot jumper and even the biggest Blair fan would admit that his jumpshot is far from solid.

The thing that is sad about this whole situation is that it would seem from Blair’s comments during his press conference he made his choice more based off of mock draft boards than his own coach’s advice. If that’s actually true, that is just sad.

Comment by The Duke from Dukes Court 04.13.09 @ 5:38 pm

Actually, there are lots of NBA forwards who can’t hit a 10-15 footer and some of them are still valuable members of rosters.

I’m not sure that part of his game was ever going to develop; for some guys that shot never comes. But maybe he will improve with basketball as a full-time job and coaching that focuses on the needs of the pro game.

Comment by hugh green 04.13.09 @ 5:59 pm

As far as Blair’s quickness and agility, I think he’s been underrated because of all of the dumb fouls he committed. But if you look back at them, I think a lot of them were on ball screen hedges 25 feet away from the basket and also questionable Help D step-ins. If he had to D up someone quicker than him, he held his own.

I seem to remember a few trips against ‘Nova where he played outstanding on-the-ball D against Cunningham. Offensively he has his liabilities, but he may fine for 10-15 mins defensively.

And of course, he’ll always be able to rebound his ass off.

Comment by jason 04.13.09 @ 8:25 pm

not to jump off topic but can anyone say how reliable the leak was about pitt signing with nike? i want to know if i have something to look forward to or not lol

Comment by Jon 04.13.09 @ 8:46 pm

Most people think that the advantage of Blair staying would be developing a jump shot …. I think a more glaring weakness that needed improvement was his one-on-one defense away from the hoop. That is where he committed most of his careless fouls basically because he relies too much on his long arms but doesn’t move his feet. (a perfect example was Reynolds last second shot — although I am by no means placing the blame on DeJuan.)

Nonetheless, I believe NBA scouts are mcuh more concerned about his defense than his jump shot …. he should be able to score on his putbacks (his strength) however, he will be sorely mismatched when playing defense, especially away from the hoop.

Comment by w bill 04.14.09 @ 8:08 am

The one advantage of signing with Nike is that we may one game next Decemebr or January, we may be seeing Tiger sitting courtside at the Pete

Comment by w bill 04.14.09 @ 8:10 am

I just hope we don’t end up going with those stupid slim jerseys in hoops that Nike makes. I think those look ridiculous.

Comment by TJ 04.14.09 @ 8:17 am

Talking with folks who saw Blair at the Dapper Dan dinner…everyone else was in coat and tie,..Blair wore a hoodie and jeans…spoke almost on a 6th grade level using a lot of street lingo. Sounded very rough and uneducated. By contrast Shav. Zellous also spoke and was dressed to the nines and eloquent.

Speculation that Blair just wanted out of college period. Who knows….I wish him the best and hope that he watches his money. He’s given all of us many great moments and represented the Univ. with great class.

Comment by Dan 72 04.14.09 @ 10:10 am

Don’t forget that Big Baby Davis didn’t have that jumper in college. This is what I’ve been trying to say about Blair…scouts just want to see that he COULD develop that jumper. He’s going to get taken by someone who needs him to be tough and get rebounds for 10 minutes a night, and then develop into a more well-rounded player down the line. He’s not going to go somewhere and have to step in and start right away.

Comment by maz. 04.14.09 @ 11:14 am

As a Nets fan, I’d love to add Blair.

Comment by Jon 04.14.09 @ 10:03 pm

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