So, should teams tank the Big East Tournament? That’s the question in the Wall Street Journal.
Looking at the last 20 Big East Tournaments, 38 of the 40 teams that made the final went on to play in the NCAA Tournament. Of those teams, 14 of them, or 37%, were upset by a lower-seeded team — and many of those upsets were plug ugly.
There’s a chart, though, that somewhat undermines the thesis.
Here’s how the teams that reached the finals of the last 20 Big East tournaments have done in the NCAA Tournament, based on their seeds.
- Met Expectations: 53%
- Beat Expectations: 10%
- Lost By Upset: 37%
So, 63% of the time they at least won the games against lower seed opponents before falling to higher seeds. The theory might have more validity if compared by teams that played four games in four days to make the BET Championship game. Something Pitt doesn’t have to worry about this year, but last year?
“I was pretty tired. Last year, I feel it affected us a little bit,” Blair said.
Does this prove the popular opinion that Pitt puts too much emphasis on the Big East Tournament? Maybe the Panthers should rest their key players to get primed for a Final Four-or-further run. Blair’s comments certainly point to that.
But last year’s situation may have been more circumstance than correlation. Playing for your immediate future tends to wear one down.
The Panthers were desperately trying to re-acclimate themselves with point guard Levance Fields, who was getting healthy on the court after missing six weeks with a foot injury. They emitted every ounce of energy just to make sure they got into the NCAA Tournament, a bid they still hadn’t secured as the Big East Tournament opened.
“We were still finding ourselves in game (No.) 30 or 31,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said.
These Panthers’ already know much of their NCAA Tournament future: They’ll be either a one or two seed when the event begins next week. That’s not to say the Panthers won’t dispense the same type of effort, merely that the mental anguish won’t be as taxing.
As for conference tournament champions not fairing well in the NCAA Tournament?
Recent numbers suggest that is bunk.
Of the automatic qualifiers for the six BCS conferences (Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC) over the past three years, eight of the 18 advanced to the Final Four. Those 18 teams had a combined 54-15 Tournament record. Four of the past five national champions won their respective conference tournaments.
More pointedly, Big East champions have fared just as well.
Three of the past 10 Big East champs have advanced to the Final Four, with two of those teams (Connecticut in 1999 and 2004) being crowned national champions.
That’s why the double-bye is so important. No one — no one is going to tank it. No coach is going to hold something back. The players and coaches are not wired that way and would never approach it that way. So, if at all possible, you want as much rest and to be limited in the amount of games you have to play.
Nothing could be worse for teams like WVU, Marquette and Syracuse, but to get too hot and make it to the championship. They are not deep enough to hold up without the mental toll as well. Marquette especially would be burned out by the mental side. They are still trying to figure out what they are doing without Dominic James.
Last year, Pitt defied log5-based preview. They are not nearly the longshot this year, but still not the favorite.
Back to Pitt, specifically, of course they are planning to win the BET.
And the Panthers are keeping an eye on the even bigger picture. They are keenly aware of what’s in front of them, and how it’s been beyond their reach in the past.
Despite wins over Marquette and Connecticut, the Panthers feel that this season is just beginning.
And that starts at the Garden.
“The coaches kept saying that we haven’t played well (recently),” said Blair, who has a poster of Final Four site Detroit hanging on his bedroom wall. “We haven’t played to our abilities.
“But everybody wants to go out on top.”
Sam Young, having busted out of a brief slump is looking to keep it going.
The 6-foot-6 senior forward seems to be tuning up for another big effort. Young is averaging 22.5 points and 7.5 rebounds over the past six games. He is shooting 54.6 percent from the field in that span.
Young, a native of Clinton, Md., also was named a first-team all-Big East selection and was the Big East Player of the Week.
“I think he’s been pretty good all year long,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. “He’s been playing very well. He played really good defense on Saturday. He’s taking good shots. Layups are good shots and he’s had a lot of layups.”
To say nothing of reprising his performance in the BET, but this time carry it further.
“I think about it all the time,” Young said. “I’d watch the film, see exactly how I played, see how I was successful in those games.”
Young’s Garden Party was one of the great performances for any Pitt player at the Big East tournament. He scored 21 points in the first-round victory against Cincinnati, 21 in the overtime quarterfinal win against Louisville, 22 in the semifinal victory against Marquette and 16 in the championship win against Georgetown.
“He led and everyone followed,” sophomore guard Brad Wanamaker said.
Young joined Julius Page as the only other Pitt player to win the Big East tournament’s most outstanding player award. Page won the award after the Panthers claimed their first tournament championship in 2003.This week, Young is hoping to do something that only one other player in the history of the Big East has done — win the most outstanding player honor twice.
Patrick Ewing of Georgetown achieved that feat in 1984 and ’85. Of course, that would mean Pitt would have to repeat and win a third tournament championship.
Young is up to the challenge.
“If the opportunity presents itself, I’ll try to do that to the best of my ability,” Young said. “I can’t let something like that slip away.”
…
Wanamaker believes Young is motivated by Pitt’s early exit from last year’s NCAA tournament.
“It seems like he has some unfinished business,” Wanamaker said. “He feels like he can lead us to a championship.”
If you didn’t watch any of the CBS college basketball studio — either after Pitt trumping UConn or even on Sunday, you most likely heard Seth Davis declare that Pitt would win the national championship. So, really, Mr. Davis, don’t play coy now.
All right, let’s cut to the chase here. Who is going to win this thing?
I like to save my official pick for the Selection Show. If I spoiled the suspense here, what reason would you have to watch? While I always reserve the right to wait until the last possible moment to make up my mind, let’s just say it’s pretty unusual for a city to celebrate both a Super Bowl championship and an NCAA championship in the same year. This is feeling like one of those years.