1. No one will be fired this week.
2. No one will be fired in the season.
3. AD Steve Pederson will not fire Dave Wannstedt.
The first is no shock. It may not make anyone happy, but it is nothing surprising.
The second might be more annoying. No one expects Coach Wannstedt to get fired in mid-season (or as I like to put it, “getting Zooked”). Offensive Coordinator Matt Cavanaugh, however, could potentially be relieved of his duties. Except, Wannstedt would never do that. That’s not in the coaching handbook. You just don’t fire assistants in mid-season in football. If it goes against “the book,” it’s not something Wannstedt will do.
The final probably has more doubters — and there are two exceptions. I’ll explain my reasoning first.
There’s too much blind faith in Pederson, that he will be proactive on firing Wannstedt. Frankly I don’t see it.
Yes, Pederson has been a force to get a lot done in modernizing the Pitt Athletic Department in his first go round. And he has come back and been aggressive at trying to build the enthusiasm for the football program again. That has nothing to do with changing coaches.
Pederson, like most athletic directors is loathe to fire “his guy.” Pushing out John Majors and firing Ralph Willard and Frank Solich at Nebraska was hardly being aggressive. Those were necessary. (Even the Solich firing was defensible, even if the manner wasn’t.)
Nebraska fans can point to the Callahan hiring then extension just before last year’s debacle of a season. Stubbornly backing Callahan when all evidence — aside from recruiting well — said Callahan was absolutely the wrong guy. Pederson may not have hired Wannstedt, but he’s tried to hire him a couple times and he was the one who gave him the extension last season.
Wannstedt is his guy. Add in Pederson’s solid relationship with Chancellor Nordenberg — who has a very, very friendly relationship with Wannstedt as well, and the pressure for a change is just lacking if the season is just lackluster.
So what are the exceptions? The first is if the team goes 4-8 or worse. That might be enough to force his hand. Seeing fans boo the coach and by extension the team has an effect — even if the rich donors might still be with Wanny.
5-7 or better and he gets another year. There will be bad excuses, in a year when there weren’t supposed to be anymore excuses, but excuses for it nonetheless.
The other is when it comes time to discuss a change in assistants. Wannstedt is as everyone knows, when it comes to coaches likes to hire cronies he already knows and is very loyal to them. This makes necessary changes very difficult. Another 5-7, 6-6 or even a 7-5 season should force some real changes at the offensive coordinator spot.
Matt Cavanaugh is out of excuses. As much slack as he has been cut, it’s looking bad for his future. But what happens if Wannstedt refuses to fire Cavanaugh? What if Cavanaugh declines to “pursue other opportunities”? That might force the AD’s hand to make a full change.
Otherwise, I’m not seeing things change with the people in charge.
