I know. His power rankings in the season always seem to suggest a slightly dour view to Pitt. Maybe there’s bias. Maybe Pitt is a team he simply won’t give as much credit towards until it has a bigger March impact. It’s also possible.
That said, he’s also been there with praise after the Big East Tournament. His pre-pre-power rankings for the upcoming year starts Pitt at #6. I happen to like Winn, since he is one of the few basketball sports writers willing to look deeper at numbers and statistical information.
So, yes, I saw his story talking about potential effects of moving the 3-point line back 1 foot for the upcoming season. In his final section it looked like Pitt got singled out as being at risk.
But the most interesting case study will be at Pittsburgh, which was seventh-worst on that list. Last season, defenses were kept honest by the shooting of junior Sam Young (38.3 percent, 44 threes) and seniors Ronald Ramon (37.2 percent, 67 threes) and Keith Benjamin (37.0 percent, 51 threes). The Panthers’ overall percentage was dragged down by the abysmal aim of point guard Levance Fields (27.7 percent, 28 threes) and Gilbert Brown (24.4 percent, 19 threes) — both of whom will likely be in the starting lineup now that Ramon and Benjamin are gone.
If defenses sag down against Fields’ penetration, and use help to double super-sophomore DeJuan Blair in the post, can Pitt make them pay? The Panthers are finding their way into plenty of preseason top 10s, but they won’t be a contender without being able to pose some semblance of a threat from beyond 20-9.
The point, though, was he was looking at numbers from NCAA Tournament teams. In that final section — those Tourney teams that had the lowest shooting % on 3s — Pitt was not just the only preseason top-10 team for this coming season, but the only consensus pre-season top-25 team. That makes Pitt the team with that question mark. On a national level, who cares if UNLV or Georgia is going to struggle with the transition if it isn’t even a sure thing if they’ll even be in the rankings? I take it as a bit of respect and a note on the expectations that Pitt merited the discussion.
Really, even in if the line wasn’t moving back a foot, it would still be the big question mark on the team going into the season — and a concern for Pitt fans. A literal change of guards. With Ramon and Benjamin gone. Especially Ramon. For all his struggles through injuries last season, Ramon was still the guy expected to take and be consistent on 3s. This is why there is some thought as to Ashton Gibbs coming in right away to help Pitt with that, and why the signing of Jermaine Dixon seems a little curious considering he isn’t exactly a 3-point marksman.