I think some cautious skepticism about the football team is still warranted. It’s hard with so many pieces starting to look like they are coming into place.
The defense looks strong overall — even if there are some areas with thin depth. The defensive line appears to finally be a point of strength. The linebackers have a hard-nosed, aggressive guy in the middle with more depth than at any point in years. Safety, while not deep, has talent.
On offense there is a stud running back. The receiving corps while not flashy is deep and talented. The QB situation looks a bit better. Even the offensive line has some hope with players coming back from injury, a center that looks like a great find from JUCO ranks and a blue-chip freshman who should be able to grab a starting job immediately.
The coaching staff was overhauled, and seems to be on the same page.
Add in the strong finish from last year that raises the optimism. As further proof of how close Pitt might be, I have seen many cite that Pitt lost 4 of its games by 7 or fewer points. That just a couple bounces, a couple less injuries (or better officiating *cough* Rutgers *cough*) and Pitt would have been at least 6-6 or even, possibly 8-4. Suggesting how close Pitt might be.
On the flip side, though, Pitt also won 3 games by 7 or fewer points. Meaning that a 3-4 record in tight games suggests Pitt was very close to where they should have been, record-wise.
I was thinking about that as I kept coming back to this look at the Big East and team’s schedules.
Two things struck me right away. First, how unsure people are about the Big East after the assumption that WVU will be good and Syracuse will suck. Second, upon reflection I can’t disagree.
The eyeballing of schedules where you pick out almost certain losses or wins for the Big East teams yields a lot more toss-ups than usual. In large part because the teams in the Big East have improved and there is more parity.
UConn had a great season last year, and they didn’t lose much. USF and Rutgers have shown stability and are establishing themselves as consistent top-25 or right around there teams. Cinci is on their way there with Kelly as coach and especially if Mauk gets that 6th year at QB. Louisville is just a big question mark — they could implode with all the JUCOs brought in or could gel like a K-State team.
Then there’s Pitt.
This might be the strongest Panther team yet under Dave Wannstedt, but the schedule could make it a challenging year. There’s a chance for a big start with a home win over Iowa in mid-September, but the Big East slate starts out with two road games against Syracuse and South Florida. Going to Navy and Notre Dame will make it four road dates in a five-game span, and then there’s the finishing kick. After getting a mid-November week off, the Panthers have to play at Cincinnati, West Virginia, and at Connecticut. That could be just tough enough to ruin Big East title hopes.
They don’t give Pitt any “Likely losses” but after the two MAC warm-ups there are also no other “near certain wins” either. And I can’t argue too hard against that. Even the Syracuse game being in Syracuse does make that closer to a toss-up than a lock right now.
There’s a healthy difference of opinion here, but one thing I think all of us can agree on: Pitt should not, should never have before, and should never ever lose again in the future, to UConn.
Home, away, neutral site, doesn’t matter. I don’t care if they play in the Mali desert village where Jim Calhoun finds his recruits: If we lose to UConn again this year, Dave should resign or be crucified on the Cathedral lawn. Or both.
Do not discount UConn in FB, they have a very good coach and he is a stand up guy!
Calhoun on the other hand is a turd!
On the flip side, though, Pitt also won 3 games by 7 or fewer points. Meaning that a 3-4 record in tight games suggests Pitt was very close to where they should have been, record-wise.”
Personally speaking, I don’t entirely accept this line of reasoning. IMO, some games that were tight wins wouldn’t have been very close except for the awful QBing problems. Likewise, IMO, some of the close losses would have clearly been wins with stronger QB play. In fact, one could argue that at least one of the not so close losses might have been a win with more solid QB play–the USF game. Recall that in that game 3 picks of the QB yielded 21 points–2 for immediate TDs and 1 that put the ball at the 1 yd line for a third “gift” TD. IMO, with solid QB play there may not have been a single unwinable game last season because even the two least competitive games (UConn and Virginia) might have been competive had they not been played at the low point of the season in terms of compounded QBing problems that, IMO, resulted in a temporarily very discouraged defensive unit (think 3 game defensive funk–UConn, Virginia, Navy). I expect those games would have had a very differnt character had they been played in the 2nd half of the season when QBing was improved just enough that (with the exception of 2nd half of the USF game) all games were competitive due to a reduction in offensive mistakes and a defense with regained confidence. So, IMO, the potential, at least, is there for a very very strong season in 2008.
I’ll lay it out real simple, from someone that lives in Tampa and sees a lot of their games. Decent defense or not, Grothe gets hurt and/or tired, USF loses. He carries the offense and the defense isn’t good enough to carry the team alone. Their offensive line sucks, that’s why he has to scramble to make those amazing plays all the time.
Their offensive
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