I think some cautious skepticism about the football team is still warranted. It’s hard with so many pieces starting to look like they are coming into place.
The defense looks strong overall — even if there are some areas with thin depth. The defensive line appears to finally be a point of strength. The linebackers have a hard-nosed, aggressive guy in the middle with more depth than at any point in years. Safety, while not deep, has talent.
On offense there is a stud running back. The receiving corps while not flashy is deep and talented. The QB situation looks a bit better. Even the offensive line has some hope with players coming back from injury, a center that looks like a great find from JUCO ranks and a blue-chip freshman who should be able to grab a starting job immediately.
The coaching staff was overhauled, and seems to be on the same page.
Add in the strong finish from last year that raises the optimism. As further proof of how close Pitt might be, I have seen many cite that Pitt lost 4 of its games by 7 or fewer points. That just a couple bounces, a couple less injuries (or better officiating *cough* Rutgers *cough*) and Pitt would have been at least 6-6 or even, possibly 8-4. Suggesting how close Pitt might be.
On the flip side, though, Pitt also won 3 games by 7 or fewer points. Meaning that a 3-4 record in tight games suggests Pitt was very close to where they should have been, record-wise.
I was thinking about that as I kept coming back to this look at the Big East and team’s schedules.
Two things struck me right away. First, how unsure people are about the Big East after the assumption that WVU will be good and Syracuse will suck. Second, upon reflection I can’t disagree.
The eyeballing of schedules where you pick out almost certain losses or wins for the Big East teams yields a lot more toss-ups than usual. In large part because the teams in the Big East have improved and there is more parity.
UConn had a great season last year, and they didn’t lose much. USF and Rutgers have shown stability and are establishing themselves as consistent top-25 or right around there teams. Cinci is on their way there with Kelly as coach and especially if Mauk gets that 6th year at QB. Louisville is just a big question mark — they could implode with all the JUCOs brought in or could gel like a K-State team.
Then there’s Pitt.
This might be the strongest Panther team yet under Dave Wannstedt, but the schedule could make it a challenging year. There’s a chance for a big start with a home win over Iowa in mid-September, but the Big East slate starts out with two road games against Syracuse and South Florida. Going to Navy and Notre Dame will make it four road dates in a five-game span, and then there’s the finishing kick. After getting a mid-November week off, the Panthers have to play at Cincinnati, West Virginia, and at Connecticut. That could be just tough enough to ruin Big East title hopes.
They don’t give Pitt any “Likely losses” but after the two MAC warm-ups there are also no other “near certain wins” either. And I can’t argue too hard against that. Even the Syracuse game being in Syracuse does make that closer to a toss-up than a lock right now.