I think sometimes we — as fans — get so wrapped up in what is or has happened in just a few day period that we lose sight of the full season. Expectations are fluid things. Going into the season, it was unsure. Pitt was ranked, but there were lots of questions. Some expected big things, others saw a transition season and others saw struggles for a very different looking team.
Pitt raised expectations in the non-con by going undefeated through most of December, including a huge win over Duke that only looked bigger further into the season. The cost, though, was the loss of starting small forward Mike Cook.
Cook was averaging over 10 points, was one of Pitt’s most athletic perimeter defenders and best free throw shooters. His loss was immediately felt in the Dayton loss immediately afterwards. Brian Roberts was able to take advantage of Cook’s absence, and torched Pitt. Dayton was also hyped and primed for this home game — from the players to the fans.
In addition, Pitt lost Levance Fields in the second half with a broken foot. Despite losing two starters, Pitt managed to go 8-4 without him (7-5 in the conference). In that period Pitt beat Georgetown and had a bad loss to Rutgers. The team did it with only 8 scholarship players — half of whom were freshmen or redshirt freshmen. by going back to the slow tempo, hard defense approach that was required without Fields and Cook. Pitt also had to be efficient on offense since the possessions will be limited — and a common theme in all the losses is that when Pitt didn’t shoot well and/or turned the ball over they lost. All of their losses had Pitt’s efficiency at 100.5 or lower — Duquesne, Duke and WVU were the only games where Pitt’s efficiency was horrible but Pitt won.
Levance Fields returned for the Marquette game, but he was not near where he was with only two days of regular practice under his belt. The blowout loss wasn’t on him, though, as Pitt just stunk. Yet it was still just one loss — no matter how bad.
Consider that Pitt has 3 “bad” losses. Either because of a poor opponent beating them soundly or being blown out: at Dayton (25 points), Rutgers (13) and at Marquette (18). How about other teams in the top-25?
Marquette (25/24) has 4 “bad” losses: at WVU (15), at Louisville (20), Louisville (24) and at UConn (16).
Notre Dame (21) has 2 bad losses: at Marquette (26) and at Georgetown (19).
Xavier (10/12) has 2: at Arizona State (22) and at Temple (19).
Texas (7) has 2: at Mizzou (13) and at Texas A&M (17).
Texas A&M (22) has 2 (and soon to be 3 after this Texas game right now): at Texas Tech (15) at K-State (21).
Vandy (20/16) has 3: at Tennessee (20), at Florida (22) at Ole’ Miss (16).
Michigan St. (19/17) has 3: at Iowa (7, but only scored 36 points), at Penn St. (9) and at Indiana (19).
Are any of these teams going to make the Final Four? I don’t see it. I do think all of these teams have a damn good chance of making the Sweet 16 and a few even to the Elite 8. If that happens, well then it comes down to match-ups and who has the big games.
Pitt had big questions going into the season about their flaws. Some were shown others not so much. It sucks that if Fields and Cook didn’t get hurt Pitt might have been a Final Four team, but that’s the way things go.
Pitt still has flaws, but so do most of the top-25 teams. Parity is very high right now. The good news, is that Pitt can get better as Levance Fields gets his game legs back.
It’s easier to be pessimistic, because you are rarely wrong. I’m just not there with this team.
They key is Fields recovery process, right now he is not in game shape, they are capable of making a run and capable of beating anyone.
Something to consider is the change in pace that had to be instilled in this team with the injuries. This is a point that rarely if ever gets mentioned. But with 4 freshmen playing, that means that half the team had spent their entire Pitt career playing and practicing a run and gun game. The slow down half court offense had to be put in due to the injuries, and that also means that the freshmen had to learn the slower patient play of a half court game. I think this has been a point that has gone unnoticed but that has definitely been a factor.
Not to mention that the media had written this team off for the year before the season started. This was, supposedly, their rebuilding year. But players like Blair ended up being better and contributing more earlier than might have been expected. The second half of the season, for whatever reason (insert your theory here) Blair has taken steps backwards in every category except rebounding. Maybe it is the pressure of the spot light. Maybe it is the length and difficulty of a college season. Maybe it is the Big East physical play. Who knows. But Blair needs to step up his game and get back to the player who made Roy Hibbert look like the freshman.
All in all, this team has endured a lot. They have grown a lot. And they have already exceeded the expectations the media had for them before the season started. We do need to step back and realize that the sky isn’t falling. If only winning 20-22 games this season constitutes a ‘bad’ season then we are doing well. I mean UConn went 17-14 last year after winning the title a few years ago. And Syracuse has literally imploded pretty much since winning their title. So even if Pitt ends up an NIT team this year, I don’t think the program is exactly falling apart because of a few freak injuries.