There are several ways to look at this, and I am trying to see as many different views on this as possible. Mainly because there is always a combination of factors that go into this sort of loss.
First there is the fact that Rutgers is a young team that is on a hot streak. They were bad in the non-con portion. They started even worse in the Big East. This is a team that through their first five conference games averaged 49.8 points/game; shooting percentage of 34.8% (93-267); and 3s were 27.5% (22-80).
Over the past three games, however, they have been a different team on offense. They averaged 77.3 points/game; shot 55.0% (82-149); and 3s a stunning 53.3% (24-45). If Pitt had faced this team a week and a half earlier or — very likely — a week later there is every possibility that they would be back to struggling with scoring and not shooting as well.
Arguably, this happens with a lot of teams. I remember a couple years ago when St. John’s beat Pitt, they had just knocked off Louisville before beating Pitt and then put a scare into UConn before a second half fade from injuries and no depth.
Second, Pitt was overconfident about this game. They certainly played that way — especially at the start of the second half. The Panthers seemed to expect the Scarlet Knights to fold and were not prepared to really put full effort in the game. There was a lot more interest in hoisting shots rather than find the best shot. Probably one of the most frustrating things. Leave the overconfidence and stupidity to those of us who don’t play.
Third, Sam Young was enjoying the limelight and wanted to demonstrate how much game he has at small forward. Unfortunately, Young didn’t show any penetration continually floating out on the wing. Rather than drive and attack, he was content to drift and throw up jumpers. I guess to show his range.
It really seemed like he had read his own press clippings and thought he could do anything he wanted
Fourth, Pitt is getting worn down. The lack of bodies is starting to take a toll on them. There were a lot of moments where Pitt just seemed a step slow, or were looking to the bench to get a blow especially in the second half. Young, Benjamin and Ramon have averaged 36, 34.8 and 35.8 minutes over the prior 4 games. They played 36, 37 and 38 in this game. Young and Ramon are already averaging over 30 minutes/game for the whole season and Benjamin is up to 24+ since the volume of injuries has risen. Even Gilbert Brown has been averaging close to 30 minutes/game since Fields was lost. Blair would be up there as well, but for his foul problems.
Have there been players on Pitt teams that have averaged more for a season? You bet (PDF, pg. 159). Does it seem like a particularly good idea? Not to me. Especially when Brown is only a redshirt freshman, Ramon is fighting through shoulder injuries, Young has to worry about his knees and Benjamin has never played this many minutes before.
The closest analog would be the 2003-04 team (PDF) that had Krauser, Page and Brown all average over 34 minutes/game. Page and Brown were seniors and Krauser was almost as old as them. Keep in mind that Page never was able to get fully healthy and had a disappointing season. Plus, by the end of the season, they were worn down. Still, they were probably more physically able to take the burden.
Now, just a couple other things remaining from my notes on the game. Pitt, in the first half, was doing what they could to keep Blair out of foul trouble. You wonder why they kept leaving the 3-point shooters open? It was because there was a lot of help defense being played in the first 10-15 minutes. They were dropping down to collapse inside, so Blair could stay in front of the frontcourt players and not get in a bad position. Of course, Rutgers burned Pitt on that strategy by hitting 6-8 on 3s when Pitt played off of them.
When Pitt finally stopped and stayed on their man, was when Pitt went on an 8-0 run to halftime. Rutgers committed turnovers and didn’t get the good looks, as they were forced to put it on the floor. Unfortunately, coming out of the half, Blair was not able to avoid making the fouls without the help inside. He committed two so quickly, in the second half he had to be pulled.
Pitt also came out in the second half looking horrible. This seemed to be the overconfidence. They felt they got Rutgers best shot, adjusted and had them now. Instead, Rutgers made the decision to commit to going at Pitt. N’Diaye, who spent a lot of time on the bench in the first half with his own foul troubles, was much better in the second half, and really played well. With Blair out with foul trouble, it meant a frontcourt of Biggs and Young. Was it any wonder that Pitt was completely destroyed on the boards in the second half?
