I’m going to essentially throw something out there. I’ve been trying to think about some of the problems with the coaches and coaching beyond the O-line never improving and bad coaching. Or the defense and then yet another rant on the incompetence of Paul Rhoads. (Note, that those are still big problems, but they’ve been done to death.) Right now, I just want to look at the problems on the offense.

I’ve actually been a bit torn on whether OC Matt Cavanaugh needs to go or not. Part of me can’t help but think that between the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, lack of time and O-line it might be unfair to blame him as much for Pitt’s problems.

Last year, despite the non-existence of an O-line and a reliable running game the offense was rather solid. Compared to this year, it was stellar, but that isn’t exactly a great comparison. Obviously a lot of that can be traced to the QB. Going from an experienced and very studious Tyler Palko to three different QBs because of injuries and not being ready is the biggest change. Afterall, there is still no O-line. While there is a greater threat of the run, teams are stacking against it.

Under OC Matt Cavanaugh, Pitt is supposed to be running one of the purer versions of the West Coast Offense. Really, the Walsh or Cincinnati Offense. A ball controlling offense that utilizes the running game, short and underneath passes in heavy doses.

The West Coast offense requires a quarterback who throws extremely accurately, and often blindly, very close to opposing players hands. In addition, it requires the quarterback to be able to quickly pick one of 5 receivers to throw to, much quicker than previously used systems. Often, the quarterback cannot think about the play, but instead reacts instinctively–and thus is often under the control of the offensive coordinator, calling the plays for him.

This is in contrast to the previous quarterback requirements of other systems, which were an adept game manager and a strong arm. Thus, for example, many people reasoned that Johnny Unitas, a strong-armed field general would not have fared well in being subservient to the offensive coordinator, and that his long but sometimes wobbly passes would not have worked in the new system. The West Coast offense caused a split still evident today amongst quarterbacks: those who were more adept at the west coast style (Joe Montana, Steve Young, Donovan McNabb) and those more in tune with the old style (Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning).

Also, the West Coast offense requires sure-handed receivers comfortable catching in heavy traffic, and the system downplays speedy, larger receivers who are covered easily in short yardage situation.

In a way there is a contrast between the offensive approach of Matt Cavanaugh and Dave Wannstedt. Wannstedt’s ideal is an offense that is much more traditional. Pound the ball, and only pass when it will further the running game. The goals are the same, conservative, control the ball and time of possession. Really dictate the game flow. The problem is the way they want to achieve it are a bit different.

There are a lot of things at work here.

Personnel conflict at WR: Derek Kinder was a perfect WR for the West Coast Offense as Cavanaugh likes it. Sure handed. Willing to work in traffic and not dependent on outracing his defender. He knew his routes and was excellent at shielding the ball from a defender. Unfortunately he’s not able to play this season. That leaves a lot of WRs long on talent, but ill-suited for the style of passing offense. Guys with speed, want to go deep and few who like to work in traffic. That’s part of why everyone thought the TEs would play a bigger factor this season after Kinder went down.

Last year, there was more use of the backs as receivers. Conredge Collins had 20 receptions and LaRod Stephens-Howling had 19 (the fifth and sixth leading receivers for Pitt in 2006 in yards and # of receptions).

The lack of an O-line — while I promised not to go off on that, it still has to be mentioned — makes any offensive scheme outside of a quick kick a big question mark, though.

Inexperienced QB: Think about the difference in Tyler Palko in 2004 versus 2005 in the system. Palko was a lot more comfortable and able to more fully comprehend what was going on in the offense after a second year. Palko — regardless of how you feel about him — was a student of the game. Worked incredibly hard off the field to learn systems and it still took him a second season to get really comfortable in it.

Bill Stull had been learning the system behind Palko for two years. However briefly, it was obvious he was the only Pitt QB who had grasped, learned, knew what to do in the system. After he went down, there was no one behind him who had had much of a chance to really learn the system that requires a lot from the QB.

Conflicting coaching philosophy: As noted, both Wannstedt and Cavanaugh want a ball control offense. Wannstedt though, wants a power running game and a QB who doesn’t do a lot and won’t make mistakes. A caretaker/manager who only throws occasionally. When he does throw, it should be to stretch the field more. Use the “playmakers” and open things up so that there is more room to run the ball.

Cavanaugh’s approach as a WCO disciple is to pass to set up the run. The run should be about 50% of the plays, but the QB is much more important. He directs the game more. The QB reads the situation and makes adjustments. There is no stretching the field. It’s only about moving the chains patiently.

Whether you agree with one or the other, there is a conflict in styles and it is unclear what Pitt really wants to do.

Too Complex for College: While many programs use aspects of the WCO, just as many programs now use elements of the spread offense, I can only think of two programs that are trying to use a distinctly NFL style of the WCO. Pitt and Nebraska. In both cases the offense has struggled mightily until there is an experienced and older QB running things.

Think how long it has taken Bill Callahan at Nebraska to get the offense to produce despite his own top recruiting classes since taking the job. The offense has sputtered and stopped often while lacking QBs with experience.

In the NFL you can get veterans who are experienced in the system. There are plenty of back-ups and you can groom a young QB. The college game doesn’t allow that kind of time luxury. There isn’t enough time for development and opportunity in the system.

If there is going to be a change in the offseason beyond getting a new O-line coach (and that is essential) for the offensive unit coaches, the complexity and conflict in styles might be the best reasons Cavanaugh should be ousted. If Cavanaugh stays, then there has to be a decision reached as to what way the team and coaching is actually committing.

I’ve always favored adjusting schemes and style to fit the personnel. Coaches Wannstedt and Cavanaugh, while paying lip service to that, have continually fallen back to what they are more comfortable with regardless.

I’ve always felt that how a team does on first down is a huge factor in how well the offense does overall. A solid gain on first and ten keeps you from long third downs and from three-and-outs. Pitt’s first down play calling and (in)efficiency has always frustrated me beyond belief. Using ESPN’s play-by-play I compiled the following information.

Note: “—” denotes the drive continued.

Obviously, a ton of passing at the end in an attempt at desperation. As you can see, on our last drive Bostick attempted a pass on each of the six first downs and only completed one. If we want to score quickly, this isn’t the way to do it.

McCoy was given the ball on 7 first down runs, with LaRod Stephens-Howling getting 2 first down carries. I’m fine with that — but notice the play/series/drive with the ** next to it. McCoy picked up 9 on first then LaRod picked up 0 on second down…then again on third. Give McCoy the damn ball.

Out of 11 drives, 3 ended in three-and-outs, 3 more ended in punts as well. Six of 11 drives ended with a punt and 50% of those lasted only three plays — ugly. Four of the times we punted came after a first down gain of 3 or less plays (including one after a sack for an 8 yard loss).
The run vs. pass stats were thrown off by the amount of passes thrown at the end of the game to try for a comeback (hah, like we’d actually make a comeback, yeah right).

Those 11 first down passes broke down into this:

I plan on doing this for a few more games this year because the stats from one game really mean nothing. Especially the way this game went, having to come from a huge deficit. I think with more and more data compiled we’ll learn more about why our offense (and any other given offense) is ineffective.

Another injury.

Jason Pinkston out for the season after shoulder surgery.

Okay, after LSU and USC everybody sucks. Or is at least so severely flawed that you just can’t count on them.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU	1
2	Southern Cal	1
3	California	3
4	Ohio State	5
5	South Florida	8
6	Boston College	4
7	Wisconsin	4
8	Florida	4
9	Georgia	3
10	Oklahoma	7
11	Kentucky	6
12	West Virginia	7
13	Hawaii	3
14	South Carolina	5
15	Texas	8
16	Rutgers	8
17	Missouri	1
18	Cincinnati	3
19	Oregon	5
20	Arizona State	3
21	Nebraska	1
22	Miami (Florida)	2
23	Virginia Tech	2
24	Purdue	2
25	Florida State	1

Standing by/Wait Listed: Hell if I know anymore.

LSU is just too impressive. I finally had to flip them with USC. USC has struggled with Washington, but LSU hasn’t slipped yet.

Purdue didn’t really deserve to move into the rankings after that performance against ND, but someone had to go in at #25.

Florida and Oklahoma had off games as much as anything else. Things just seemed freaky in those.

Wisconsin is winning but is continually shaky doing so. When they finally lose, expect everyone to plummet them with their votes. Right now, though, there’s no one else to really put in front of them.

South Carolina struggled until late against Miss. St. yet moved up way too much. I’ll have to adjust that. I don’t care that they beat Georgia head-to-head. I see no reason to move them ahead of the Bulldogs at this point.

If the upper-teams keep losing, then Hawaii might actually creep into the BCS poll.