7-5. 4-8? 5-7? 6-6? 8-4? 9-3?
The first is the most reasonable and expected record from Pitt this season. The rest are the other possibilities. I hate predicting the season — mainly because I suck at it. Still, even casually we all do it. Eyeball the schedule and pick the expected wins, losses and toss-ups.
Eastern Michigan — Win — Just imagine the empty seats if Pitt drops this game.
Grambling — Win — Or this?
@ Michigan State — Loss (?) — On the plus side, Pitt is 2-0 versus Mark Dantonio coached teams. Of course Pitt is 0-5-1 versus Michigan State. Drew Stanton is no longer the QB, and Dantonio isn’t a spread option Coach. Big negative, RB Javon Ringer is back along with 4 of the 5 starting O-linemen from last year. If you buy into Pitt’s D-line being better because of experience, then it works against Pitt considering how the Spartans O-line manhandled Pitt last year. Michigan State isn’t that good, so a win is possible but I just can’t see it.
UConn — Win — Trap game. Pitt should win this one, but is fully capable of losing this. I mean, UConn didn’t score more than 23 points against a D-1A team last year but Pitt made them look like an offensive juggernaut by the end. Useless/meaningless factoid: in the two years under Wannstedt, Pitt is 3-7 in night games.
@ Virginia — Win (?) — Their defense returns 10 of 11 starters, and their offense 9 of 11. That doesn’t seem to be that great a thing, other than to have more experience. Still not much to fear from their receiving corps, but QB Sewell is a dual-threat. Obviously that is something that has killed Pitt before. I just think Pitt actually matches up well versus the Hoos from the coaching down through the players.
Navy — ??? — I find this one to be a complete toss-up every time I try to break it down. Honestly, the Navy offensive schemes seem too far out of the grasp of DC Rhoads. He struggles with the option. A triple option? Oy. On the other hand, virtually the entire Navy defense from last year is gone. That gives Pitt a real chance. Especially if Pitt can generate a real ground attack and keep the ball from the Navy offense.
Cinci — Win — I think Pitt matches up well with the Bearcats. Their wide-open offense, though, does give me pause. If Pitt loses this, it should be the final nail in Rhoads’ coaching coffin at Pitt.
@ Louisville — Loss — Just not seeing it.
Syracuse — Win — Pitt’s chance to even the all-time series at 30-30-3 with a win. Now I’m scared.
@ Rutgers — Loss — This hurts. It would make 3 straight losses to them, but I can’t see Pitt holding them.
USF — Win (?) — Another useless factoid. The Bulls are only 1-5 when playing in temps below 40 degrees. Late November in Pittsburgh. If you saw them go, uh, brittle last November in Cinci, then picking a weather-related loss is quite plausible.
@ WVU — Loss — I wish. Oh, how I wish.
So there you have it. Seven wins is my baseline expectation with a +/- 2. If all goes exceptionally well and breaks go right, then 9-3 is possible. The other way could fall to 5-7.
End of season meaning of the records:
- 4-8 — Absolute disaster and major coaching overhaul.
- 5-7 — Significantly disappointing. Very hard to defend the team and direction.
- 6-6 — Frustrating. It means another season where Pitt was below .500 versus 1A teams.
- 7-5 — Finally some progress. At least no dropping a game that shouldn’t have been lost.
- 8-4 — Now we’re talking about heading in the right direction.
- 9-3 — Expectations going into 2008 will be big.
- 10-2 — Holy Crap!
Season starts in a little more than a day.
There are four players who I think are the keys to the season…in no partiular order
Dickerson, Stull, McGlynn, McCoy
Another key to the season is whether or not Pitt can switch defensively to a swarming, agressive scheme.
We’ll find out by the third game how this season is really going to shape up – either we’ll screw up one or both of the first two, in which case we know disaster is coming, or MSU will tell us whats really going on – if we’re the same as last year, or better.
Brohm – did you see the defense? There weren’t guys within 10 yds on either side of their receivers. Literally. 10 yds. Not joking. ANYONE could have looked amazing in that game. I’m not saying he’s not one of, if not the best QBs going – but that was all the creampuff they were playing, not him.
I guess we’ll either go undefeated or figure out how we’re being lied to. Or our offense will play like Mississippi State’s last night (anyone see that? 5 picks? are you kidding?) and we’re going to have a long, hard season.
Unless the offensive line performs A LOT better than I expect it to, I see a 5-7 season. I see them losing all five road games, and home games against Navy and USF (and maybe even Cincy to finish with only four wins). I pray I am totally wrong and being my typical pessimsitic self when it comes to Pitt sports… I have heard nothing positive about their offensive line as a whole.
MSU, UVA, Navy, WVU, Rutgers, USF
I’m figuring that Cincy, UConn, or SU will upset them.
And I know this isn’t “classy” but I don’t give a shit: I hope every bone in White’s body is broken. Your QB should not be your RB for obvious (injury) reasons. I hope those reasons come true. Make them throw the ball – besides White and Slatons O, they had a total of 73 yards in the air (IIRC…). Without white, some backup QB, IF (a big if) we stop him (and Devine if he’s playing) we can win this. Look at USF last year (and LU somewhat with the injuries).
And before all you inbreds get on your stolen computers and bitch – NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR IT ON THIS SITE.
White threw for 204 yards and 2 TDs against Pitt last year… And their backup QB is good… he beat Rutgers last year in what I believe was his only start. I don’t like WVU either, but you have to respect their team. As far as wishing injury on a 20 year old college kid… good grief… you’re right… it’s not classy…
You get what you ask for when you have your QB as your RB. You’re asking for trouble. Look at how beat up those two got last year – two guys getting 90% of posessions. I don’t care if it’s not classy, I’m hoping the obvious outcome plays out – whats wrong with that?
My bigger concern is that Devine turns out to be the 3rd man making it a 3 man team so Slaton and White get some rest. If he turns out to be as much trouble as the other two, it could be an even longer day.
“But the struggle against a so-called inferior opponent sometimes can be better for a young team in the long run. Consider this: That run to the Fiesta Bowl in 2004 got started (i.e. that team learned how to win close, tough games) with comebacks over Furman and Temple.”
The “run” to the bowl? HAHAHAHA….how about “bumblin, stumblin, fumblin, to trip and fall in the back-door…” What a joke.
Not saying that was the only cause of our plunge, but it may have contributed to it.
Seriously (though actually, I’d put nothing past old Richie) … as long as one O-line injury forces us to shuffle the whole entire deck, as they did last year with Simonitis, we’re always going to be a .500 team.
The biggest concern I have (other than the OL and inexperience at LB, QB, and the shaky secondary) is our lackadaisical kickoff coverage. It was never great, and now with the new rules and our weak kickoff specialists, expect some killer returns (though we should also get our share).
Let’s hope I’m wrong, we steal a couple we shouldn’t and finally go bowling!
Go Pitt. I’ll still be sitting in the stadium.
And we certainly have the receivers that can get down field in a hurry, especially Williams, Pestano and Wright.
Perhaps you’re thinking about the lack of arm strength for the middle out patterns.
They are able to frustrate the defenses of other teams early on in the game (look at the Notre Dame-Navy game last year).
The trick is making the right adjustments, which Rhoads has trouble doing.
Brohm looked ridiculous last night (5 TD’s), and Rutgers Ray Rice looked amazing also (187 yds, 3 TD’s).