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August 31, 2007

Eyeballing the Season

Filed under: Football,Prognostications — Chas @ 9:24 am

7-5. 4-8? 5-7? 6-6? 8-4? 9-3?

The first is the most reasonable and expected record from Pitt this season. The rest are the other possibilities. I hate predicting the season — mainly because I suck at it. Still, even casually we all do it. Eyeball the schedule and pick the expected wins, losses and toss-ups.

Eastern Michigan — Win — Just imagine the empty seats if Pitt drops this game.

Grambling — Win — Or this?

@ Michigan State — Loss (?) — On the plus side, Pitt is 2-0 versus Mark Dantonio coached teams. Of course Pitt is 0-5-1 versus Michigan State. Drew Stanton is no longer the QB, and Dantonio isn’t a spread option Coach. Big negative, RB Javon Ringer is back along with 4 of the 5 starting O-linemen from last year. If you buy into Pitt’s D-line being better because of experience, then it works against Pitt considering how the Spartans O-line manhandled Pitt last year. Michigan State isn’t that good, so a win is possible but I just can’t see it.

UConn — Win — Trap game. Pitt should win this one, but is fully capable of losing this. I mean, UConn didn’t score more than 23 points against a D-1A team last year but Pitt made them look like an offensive juggernaut by the end. Useless/meaningless factoid: in the two years under Wannstedt, Pitt is 3-7 in night games.

@ Virginia — Win (?) — Their defense returns 10 of 11 starters, and their offense 9 of 11. That doesn’t seem to be that great a thing, other than to have more experience. Still not much to fear from their receiving corps, but QB Sewell is a dual-threat. Obviously that is something that has killed Pitt before. I just think Pitt actually matches up well versus the Hoos from the coaching down through the players.

Navy — ??? — I find this one to be a complete toss-up every time I try to break it down. Honestly, the Navy offensive schemes seem too far out of the grasp of DC Rhoads. He struggles with the option. A triple option? Oy. On the other hand, virtually the entire Navy defense from last year is gone. That gives Pitt a real chance. Especially if Pitt can generate a real ground attack and keep the ball from the Navy offense.

Cinci — Win — I think Pitt matches up well with the Bearcats. Their wide-open offense, though, does give me pause. If Pitt loses this, it should be the final nail in Rhoads’ coaching coffin at Pitt.

@ Louisville — Loss — Just not seeing it.

Syracuse — Win — Pitt’s chance to even the all-time series at 30-30-3 with a win. Now I’m scared.

@ Rutgers — Loss — This hurts. It would make 3 straight losses to them, but I can’t see Pitt holding them.

USF — Win (?) — Another useless factoid. The Bulls are only 1-5 when playing in temps below 40 degrees. Late November in Pittsburgh. If you saw them go, uh, brittle last November in Cinci, then picking a weather-related loss is quite plausible.

@ WVU — Loss — I wish. Oh, how I wish.

So there you have it. Seven wins is my baseline expectation with a +/- 2. If all goes exceptionally well and breaks go right, then 9-3 is possible. The other way could fall to 5-7.

End of season meaning of the records:

  • 4-8 — Absolute disaster and major coaching overhaul.
  • 5-7 — Significantly disappointing. Very hard to defend the team and direction.
  • 6-6 — Frustrating. It means another season where Pitt was below .500 versus 1A teams.
  • 7-5 — Finally some progress. At least no dropping a game that shouldn’t have been lost.
  • 8-4 — Now we’re talking about heading in the right direction.
  • 9-3 — Expectations going into 2008 will be big.
  • 10-2 — Holy Crap!

Season starts in a little more than a day.





I would not be surprised if Navy’s triple option attack guts our defense for 350+ yds on the ground.

They are able to frustrate the defenses of other teams early on in the game (look at the Notre Dame-Navy game last year).

The trick is making the right adjustments, which Rhoads has trouble doing.

Brohm looked ridiculous last night (5 TD’s), and Rutgers Ray Rice looked amazing also (187 yds, 3 TD’s).

Comment by Ryan M 08.31.07 @ 10:26 am

Very good analysis, here, Chas. I agree with what you have to say about Michigan State and Navy, but I’m nervous about Virginia and Cincinnati.

Comment by Nick 08.31.07 @ 10:47 am

i dont know if you could say for certainty whether MSU, UVA, Cincy or Navy is a win or a loss right now. i really hope we finish over .500, but im not putting any money on it, especially since i have a recurring nightmare about navy rushing for 350+ yards like ryan said above me.

Comment by matt 08.31.07 @ 12:03 pm

There are so many unpredictable games this year its almost impossible to predict what will happen. Basing it soley on last years performance things dont look great but lets hope we’ve improved. There are a lot of winnable games but of course we tend to find ways to lose some of those…ie; Ohio, Uconn…

Comment by Rex 08.31.07 @ 12:22 pm

I still think South Florida’s defense is too good regardless of temp. I also think we pull it off against the Spartans

Comment by Justin 08.31.07 @ 12:45 pm

I don’t see us having a problem with the Navy.

Comment by ChrisA 08.31.07 @ 12:48 pm

10-2, Gator Bowl. Bank on it!

Comment by Patrick 08.31.07 @ 12:59 pm

7-5 sound about right. I see them losing to someone they should beat, like Cincinnati or Syracuse, and winning two out of three of Michigan State, Virginia or Rutgers. Maddeningly inconsistent, just what you’d expect from a young team with a rookie quarterback. Running game will be improved but we will take a step back in passing. We won’t be able to fully take advantage of our talented receivers. Oderick Turner & Mo Willians will have strong years. O-line is still a work in progress, this is the team’s weakest area at this time. McGlynn has to be healthy and perform well at center for the line to be effective. McCoy will emerge, LaRod will be more of a factor in the passing game and he and Collins will be an important third down guy. Defensively, the line will become a team strength and team speed has improved. Still not enough to defeat WVU or Louisville. Dorin Dickerson is the key defensively. If Pitt can harness his ability as a pass rusher and utilize him in situations where he can take advantage of his speed and athleticism…look out.

There are four players who I think are the keys to the season…in no partiular order

Dickerson, Stull, McGlynn, McCoy

Another key to the season is whether or not Pitt can switch defensively to a swarming, agressive scheme.

Comment by Al from Harrisburg 08.31.07 @ 1:25 pm

I’m hoping we get a beat up team by the time we get down to that shithole to the south. Hopefully a season of those two getting tackled over and over again pays some dividends. There’s a reason why running QBs don’t do shit in the NFL. I don’t care if we go 0-11, as long as we go 1-11. Honestly, every game this season is a toss-up. I have no idea whats going to happen – none at all. We have guys like Kirk Herbstreit saying we’re going to be even worse than last year, but at the same time all we hear about is how much better we’re getting.

We’ll find out by the third game how this season is really going to shape up – either we’ll screw up one or both of the first two, in which case we know disaster is coming, or MSU will tell us whats really going on – if we’re the same as last year, or better.

Brohm – did you see the defense? There weren’t guys within 10 yds on either side of their receivers. Literally. 10 yds. Not joking. ANYONE could have looked amazing in that game. I’m not saying he’s not one of, if not the best QBs going – but that was all the creampuff they were playing, not him.

Comment by Stuart 08.31.07 @ 2:09 pm

For the record, my guess is 12-0. I’m going to be optimistic here. There is no reason we can’t beat every team on the schedule. We’re supposed to have better lines, our running game better, etc. If we can get some sort of pass rush, LU shouldn’t be able to destroy us. Uconn won’t beat us. If we can stop the run, MSU and Rutgers and WVU and Navy shouldn’t be able to beat us. Supposedly our offense shouldn’t tank either.

I guess we’ll either go undefeated or figure out how we’re being lied to. Or our offense will play like Mississippi State’s last night (anyone see that? 5 picks? are you kidding?) and we’re going to have a long, hard season.

Comment by Stuart 08.31.07 @ 2:20 pm

Their offensive line gives me zero hope of a winning season. They won’t be able to mount a better ground attack than last year, and Stull will never be able to settle in under center because he will be constantly under duress.

Unless the offensive line performs A LOT better than I expect it to, I see a 5-7 season. I see them losing all five road games, and home games against Navy and USF (and maybe even Cincy to finish with only four wins). I pray I am totally wrong and being my typical pessimsitic self when it comes to Pitt sports… I have heard nothing positive about their offensive line as a whole.

Comment by letsgopitt 08.31.07 @ 3:19 pm

I’m going with Stuart, 13-0 (all twelve plus the BCS championship.) What the hell. None of the teams on our schedule is all that great. The hoopleheads will suffer a major injury to either Slaton or White and the rest of the teams aren’t that good to begin with.

Comment by Crackbaldo 08.31.07 @ 3:36 pm

6-6 once again. That’s assuming they win 2 of these games:

MSU, UVA, Navy, WVU, Rutgers, USF

I’m figuring that Cincy, UConn, or SU will upset them.

Comment by Topper22 08.31.07 @ 4:00 pm

I’m gonna say we win our first two games and then who knows. I personally feel like I don’t know this team too well and that could be my fault. I’ll be happy with 7-5, 8 wins is a complete success.

Comment by Panthoor 08.31.07 @ 4:02 pm

Thanks crack. At least I’m not alone.

And I know this isn’t “classy” but I don’t give a shit: I hope every bone in White’s body is broken. Your QB should not be your RB for obvious (injury) reasons. I hope those reasons come true. Make them throw the ball – besides White and Slatons O, they had a total of 73 yards in the air (IIRC…). Without white, some backup QB, IF (a big if) we stop him (and Devine if he’s playing) we can win this. Look at USF last year (and LU somewhat with the injuries).

And before all you inbreds get on your stolen computers and bitch – NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR IT ON THIS SITE.

Comment by Stuart 08.31.07 @ 6:19 pm

link to sports.espn.go.com

White threw for 204 yards and 2 TDs against Pitt last year… And their backup QB is good… he beat Rutgers last year in what I believe was his only start. I don’t like WVU either, but you have to respect their team. As far as wishing injury on a 20 year old college kid… good grief… you’re right… it’s not classy…

Comment by letsgopitt 08.31.07 @ 6:44 pm

I’m foolishly going to set myself up for more bitterness and disappointment by optimistically predicting an 8-4 finish.

Comment by Jeff 08.31.07 @ 7:07 pm

Can’t see us beating Mich State. They seemed to figure out the complex formula for beating Pitt: run up the middle…..actually, any run will do.

Comment by Jon C 08.31.07 @ 7:18 pm

Slaton had 130 yards receiving…so, 204 – 130 means the rest of the team had 74 yards receving. Damn, my memory was one off. So, besides slaton and white running and catching, the rest of the team had 74 yds receiving and 3 yds rushing. It is a 2 man team, nothing more. Hopefully 1 or both are out by the last game.

You get what you ask for when you have your QB as your RB. You’re asking for trouble. Look at how beat up those two got last year – two guys getting 90% of posessions. I don’t care if it’s not classy, I’m hoping the obvious outcome plays out – whats wrong with that?

My bigger concern is that Devine turns out to be the 3rd man making it a 3 man team so Slaton and White get some rest. If he turns out to be as much trouble as the other two, it could be an even longer day.

Comment by Stuart 08.31.07 @ 7:24 pm

This is the funniest thing i’ve read all week:

“But the struggle against a so-called inferior opponent sometimes can be better for a young team in the long run. Consider this: That run to the Fiesta Bowl in 2004 got started (i.e. that team learned how to win close, tough games) with comebacks over Furman and Temple.”

The “run” to the bowl? HAHAHAHA….how about “bumblin, stumblin, fumblin, to trip and fall in the back-door…” What a joke.

Comment by Stuart 08.31.07 @ 7:29 pm

Weren’t our lines not that bad last year until we got bit by a bunch of injuries right about the time we went on that losing streak?

Not saying that was the only cause of our plunge, but it may have contributed to it.

Comment by Jimbo Covert's my dad 08.31.07 @ 7:39 pm

“run” to the fiesta bowl or not, those furman and temple games were walt’s fault for constantly playing down to the level of his opponents

Comment by matt 08.31.07 @ 9:55 pm

I think 5-7 is the most realistic, given the O-line and the likelihood somebody on it will inevitably suffer a bad injury. With that position, it’s just bound to happen. If WVU played us early in the year, guarantee Rodrigueez would order his players to roll up our OL’s legs at the end of plays.

Seriously (though actually, I’d put nothing past old Richie) … as long as one O-line injury forces us to shuffle the whole entire deck, as they did last year with Simonitis, we’re always going to be a .500 team.

The biggest concern I have (other than the OL and inexperience at LB, QB, and the shaky secondary) is our lackadaisical kickoff coverage. It was never great, and now with the new rules and our weak kickoff specialists, expect some killer returns (though we should also get our share).

Let’s hope I’m wrong, we steal a couple we shouldn’t and finally go bowling!

Comment by geeman2001 08.31.07 @ 11:51 pm

I like the enthusiasm. But 6 &6 is my optimistic prediction for this year with 5 & 7 a real possibility. Making it to 7 &5 is a stretch. A weak offensive line with untried q’back and no deep pass threat is going to hinder us all season.
Go Pitt. I’ll still be sitting in the stadium.

Comment by JED_72 09.01.07 @ 7:12 am

JED_72, reports by both Gorman and Zeise at the end of camp were pretty positive regarding Stull’s deep ball ability & he’s been said to have about equal or a little better strength than Palko, and Palko’s deep balls were fine. Stull was hitting deep completions pretty regularly the last week of camp.

And we certainly have the receivers that can get down field in a hurry, especially Williams, Pestano and Wright.

Perhaps you’re thinking about the lack of arm strength for the middle out patterns.

Comment by Reed 09.01.07 @ 8:32 am

I’m thinking 7-5, but the record is not as important as is HOW they play. With a bunch of new/young guys expected to do so much for this team don’t be surprised if they struggle early. What I’m looking for is the team to show dramatic improvement as the season moves on. I don’t think we’ll beat WVU, but I hope by then we can give them a run for their money.

Comment by ME2001 09.01.07 @ 3:49 pm

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