Unlike Chris Taft from a couple years ago, Aaron Gray’s draft status has remained relatively unchanged in over a year. He is still expected to be taken in the first round, somewhere in the 20s. For the NBA, he is a solid, unremarkable, serviceable big man. He will be a good back-up occasional starter for years. This is not a bad thing.
Hoopsworld.com has a good profile and explanation for his draft status.
He might be big, but size sometimes takes away from speed and explosiveness, which limits his ceiling on the defensive end of the floor in the NBA. Many scouting reports call his inability to block a ton of shots or rebound out of position his greatest weaknesses. That doesn’t mean he’s not going to try; it just means that he’s not particularly athletic.
But how many freakishly athletic true centers are really out there? Teams are always taking gambles in the draft, especially on big guys, and there are plenty of teams that could use a backup center (or even a starter) with a chance to put some points on the board, post up for a few easy ones, command a double-team, work some passes off the block. Gray can do those things, which is why you should expect to see him off the board in the first round of this June’s draft. He’s probably not a lottery pick, but he could fall somewhere in the 15-25 range, especially to teams like Detroit, Washington, and (why not) his home-state team, the Philadelphia 76ers, who if the season ended today would pick right around 18.
Sounds about right.
That said, if I were an NBA team, the way the game is played today, I just don’t see how I would use a first round pick on him. He certainly can make a team, and contribute as a solid backup center (or even a starter if the position clearly won’t be the focus of that team’s offense). To me, that doesn’t equate to a first round pick. I know the NBA is different than the NFL, etc. but a “first round pick” suggests a guy who can be a real difference maker. With so few teams and so many great college and foreign players, I just don’t see it. But the sake of his financial success, I hope it happens for him!
From what I’ve seen over the years, the Top 10 picks are usually starter caliber players and 11-25 are bench players. After that, it’s usually a long shot for a player to have a substantial NBA career. That being said, I think Gray will go in the mid to late 20s. And that will be a good thing for him because he’s probably going to a playoff team in which a lot won’t be expected of him right away.