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February 23, 2007

Definitely seems like Pitt will be going it without Aaron Gray tomorrow.

“If I had to guess going by what I saw [yesterday] I don’t think he’ll be ready to go on Saturday,” Dixon said after Pitt’s workout. “I’ve been wrong before. We’ll just have to see. In the next 48 hours there might some recovery there, but going by what he did today I would say there wouldn’t be a good chance.”

Gray, averaging 14.5 points and 10.0 rebounds a game, did some light work on the side as Pitt went through practice. The main problem is the ankle is not responding well to treatment. Gray has dealt with turned ankles in the past, but this injury seems more serious.

“It’s swollen, very discolored and it doesn’t look good,” Dixon said. “I’ll put it in layman’s terms. You wouldn’t want to walk on it if it was yours.”

Let’s just say, I’m not feeling good about Pitt’s chances against Georgetown without him. It really weakens Pitt defensively in two positions. Obviously at Center where Kendall will have to slide over and play, but also with Sam Young sliding in to start at Power Forward and going against Jeff Green (who absolutely terrifies me).

Georgetown’s offense is absolutely the worst kind of offense for Young to face. They run set plays with backdoor cuts and great movement without the ball.  Young struggles to maintain his concentration on defense. He drifts out of position and gets impatient. I can see him being exploited for those tendencies badly. Young has all the abilities and tools to be the better player than Kendall defensively — even undersized at PF — but he hasn’t shown the mental for a full game (which, by the way, probably has as much to do with anything else as to why Young has not gotten the minutes everyone things he should get).
HoyaSaxa.com has an excellent preview for the game.

A game that was supposed to be all about deciding the Big East regular season, now has a different meaning for me.  It’s now about seeing what the team does and plays knowing that Gray cannot be the main guy — at best. They have to pick up the effort on both sides. I was encouraged by the rebounding effort against Seton Hall after the slow start, but there  needs to be more on the defensive side. Keeping the guards outside, and stopping Green and others from driving. Pitt is suddenly very depth deprived inside with only Kendall and  Young with Biggs to spell them both. That means, staying out of foul trouble for the forwards will be essential, hence while Hibbert could be enough of a problem, if players are getting drives to the basket you know there will be some fouling inside. Something Pitt can’t afford.

Joe Starkey’s column is all about saying, “you people didn’t appreciate Gray enough, but now maybe you’ll understand.”  I sort of understand, but I think that some of the nitpicking and complaints about some of what Gray has and hasn’t done this year has been justified. I haven’t heard anyone claim the team would have been better without him. Just that they expected more.

The complaints I never got were things about how he hasn’t improved or regressed from last year. When he’s in the game, he changes things for both sides. And other than with rebounding, there isn’t much standing around by the team waiting for him to do something.





This sucks. Biggest game of the year and we don’t have our best player. Hopefully we rally together and play our best game of the season. I think Young has a better chance of defending Green over Kendall. The key is staying disciplined. The problem is we don’t have anybody to check Hibbert. If the threes aren’t going down we will lose.

Comment by Omar 02.23.07 @ 9:58 am

Omar you took the words out of my mouth…this sucks. It hurts knowing that this injury happened with just 10 seconds left in that game. I am actually going to the game since I work in DC so I was looking forward to seeing us at full strength. However the more I think about it, Gray missing the last few games may actually be a good thing for this team. They’ve been playing sluggishly and kind of relying on Gray to always bail them out. I think this will motivate everyone to play tougher and work harder knowing that they have to in order to win. This may be just the kick in the ass they need before the BE tourney and March Madness. If they can win without Gray thats got to do something for your confidence. Lets just hope he gets better soon.

Comment by Rex 02.23.07 @ 10:01 am

I have to assume that, at times at least, we might see an aggressive zone in this game. At least at points in the first half to try to limit fouls on our “big men.”

Comment by Carmen 02.23.07 @ 10:06 am

Omar we are going to lose!..just be prepared.

Comment by scoocher 02.23.07 @ 10:26 am

Thanks for the heads up. Your analysis is very thorough and I appreciate it. Love cheering for Pitt along side fans like you.

Comment by Omar 02.23.07 @ 10:31 am

I’m going to the game too. I bought the tickets back in October hoping this game would be exactly what it is.

I really hope my $55 isn’t going to be a total waste.

Comment by Jon in NOVA 02.23.07 @ 10:36 am

Just keeping it real brother…you think he’s going to recover from an injury like that overnight?..did you ever play any sports?

As I predicted before Gray injury, 1-2 over the next three games..you said (suprisingly, 3-0).

Just take off the blue and gold goggles once in awhile.

Comment by scoocher 02.23.07 @ 10:37 am

I saw them having a tough time winning with Gray playing and also the way Gerogetown is playing now.

Hopefully Rex is right and the team will play focussed, and harder. The skeptic in me says I will believe it when I see it but in times past they have done just that.

This year’s team has been an enigma to me. I know they have good players but they do not play good for 40 minutes, let alone for a half. They will have to play good for most if not all of this game to win.

Comment by Kenny 02.23.07 @ 10:45 am

Kenny, your one of the better posters here, realistically what do you think we will do over the next three games (with or without Gray)?

Comment by scoocher 02.23.07 @ 10:56 am

The injury didn’t look that bad in person. I played basketball through high school, intramural in college and I play rec league basketball now (graduated in 2001). A week should be enough time to recover, especially with round the clock treatment. If it hasn’t gotten any better, then he has a severe injury and probably won’t be close to 100% for 6-12 weeks.

Comment by Omar 02.23.07 @ 11:22 am

having just watched a few episodes of er, looks more towards severe than an overnighter.

Comment by scoocher 02.23.07 @ 11:49 am

Personally, I see this as a great opportunity for Tyrell Biggs and Kendall to showcase their ability. I also see this as a big opportunity for Pitt-there is no pressure on us–everyone thinks that we are going to lose this game. the absence of Gray will hurt inside, but it may be a chance for Cook and Young to slash their way to the basket.
We will have to take care of the ball, and have decent outside shooting–but I still think that we can win this game. Rebounding will be key.
And if we don’t win the BE, so what? I would rather have a healthy, rested Gray for the BE and NCAA tournaments.

Comment by tph60 02.23.07 @ 12:02 pm

For some reason I think we are going to win this game, even without Gray. I can see this team rallying behind the fact that everybody will expect them to get killed and coming through with a strong performance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull it off. Then again, I could be totally off base.

Comment by Matt O 02.23.07 @ 12:09 pm

Prediction from my deepest wishes… He will play. Dixon is pulling a Belichick.

Comment by Shablinky 02.23.07 @ 12:22 pm

“realistically what do you think we will do over the next three games (with or without Gray)? ”

With Gray, I say they are a 50-50 shot to win or lose on the road. Without Him the percentage goes is lower. As for home, I say with him playing against WVU they win.

I just wish I could have full confidnece in them bringing their “A” game everytime but alas as the season has unfolded it has not happened.

I am a fan but I am not a fantatic. My hopes for this team are not based on projected play but play itself. I have been hoping this team would jell as in past seasons. That hope with the media predictions of them being good has led me to higher expectations for this year’s team.

My expectations have been lowered by their play this year. But like I said this team is an enigma to me. While I expect them not to win all of the next 3 games, they could surprise and win them all. But I am not holding my breath.

Comment by Kenny 02.23.07 @ 1:36 pm

I am of course hoping for 3-0, but I won’t be disappointed with a split on the road especially considering the injury. The key thing for any team is to peak at the right time, and they certainly haven’t been peaking recently. Either that means they peaked way too early (i.e. the Florida St. or first GT game) or they haven’t peaked yet, which is what I think we’re all hoping for – that they put it all together and go on a hot streak in March.

Comment by B.B. 02.23.07 @ 2:43 pm

Omar – Schoocher above sounded just like you during football season 🙂

Comment by Reed 02.23.07 @ 4:16 pm

You’re probably right.

Comment by Omar 02.23.07 @ 6:40 pm

I agree about “peaking” – i thought it was the FSU game, WAY too early…and now we’re slumping… We need to peak again, and soon. Unfortunately, without gray, I don’t see it. I say sit him until the BE tourney – they say he is going to be bothered with this ankle for 3 MONTHS – that’s the rest of the year. Sit him to rest up for important games. I don’t care what seed we get in the BE tournament, I think we have a bye locked up already. We play 3 games no matter what – does it matter if we play Georgetown in the semi or final game? Forget these last three games, rest him for whats important. We’ll still get a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA, i don’t see that changing no matter if we win or lose – unless we go on a miracle 6 game win streak – which i give about 0% chance now.

Comment by Stuart 02.23.07 @ 7:40 pm

Oh – in the meantime, put his ass on a bike, and make him shoot 1000 free throws a day. At least get him in decent shape (been looking slow to me recently) and bump up that free throw percentage. Oden is shooting a higher percentage, with the wrong hand, with the wrong footing for shooting with that hand! Seriously, make the best of a bad situation – i think he could definitely come out ahead in this. They say he can do those two things in practice without damaging himself even further. And stand under the bucket and practice those damn layups he loves to miss!

Comment by Stuart 02.23.07 @ 7:46 pm

It’s time for Biggs to step up and play tough. He did just that in the Seton Hall game and that’s when that game changed to our favor. Young is just to small to mix it up inside. Biggs should get the start and we could bring in Young when they go small. Don’t forget that the BEARCAT’s played these guys tough and they just flat out can’t suck hard any more then they do now. We have a shot in this game. The 3’s will have to drop but our guys are due to heat it up right about now.

Comment by Tony in Harrisburg 02.23.07 @ 7:46 pm

yo reed!..I love pitt theres no debating it..I just think we are going to go 1-2..havent peeked yet (much like my life).

Comment by scoocher 02.23.07 @ 11:20 pm

Tony, you are the man, Put Biggs in there and tell him to crash the boards and play tough and dont shoot any 3s. GO PITT

Comment by Lapper 02.24.07 @ 9:13 am

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