Well, this is a game that makes me nervous. I just am not wild about the match-up with Villanova’s guard-oriented line-up.
“They have been accustomed to giving away size advantages inside for a couple of seasons, and as a team have been very good at using their quickness to deny the ball and interrupt the passing lanes,†says Covers Expert David Malinsky.
Villanova’s guard play is consistently among the best in the nation. The Wildcats combat the country’s 139th best rebounding numbers (38.5 per game) with one of the highest steal rates in the country. Villanova ranks fourth in the Big East and 42nd in the nation with 8.5 steals per game.
Gray is also the only big man Villanova has to worry about. Pittsburgh operates primarily out of a three-guard set and 6-foot-9 forward Levon Kendall is more of a perimeter player than anything else.
“One weakness that the Panthers have faced is getting someone other than Gray to hit the boards,†says Malinsky. “It is a team without a natural power forward, which can help Villanova to match up in this instance.â€
If you watched Scottie Reynolds take over the Texas game, then you know what I’m talking about. Damn, he could be making life miserable for the Big 12 rather than the Big East if Sampson hadn’t made all those phone calls and jumped to Indiana. Basically, the slight edge on betting lines are going to Villanova with the home court.
As usual, the gameplan against Pitt starts with neutralizing Aaron Gray.
The Wachovia Center has been a comfortable arena for the Wildcats, who upset Texas there on Jan. 20. They won all three games there last season.
“We’re just going to get focused and be ready for Pitt,” freshman Scottie Reynolds said after the loss to Notre Dame. “We learn from [our struggles] quicker now.”
The Wildcats have shut down significant big men this season.
They held Georgetown’s 7-foot-2 center, Roy Hibbert, without a field goal and allowed Texas’ 6-9 Kevin Durant to score just one of his 12 points in the second half. Villanova also kept Providence’s 6-10 Herbert Hill, who is fourth in scoring in the Big East, in check with 12 points.
Considering this is a Big Monday match-up on ESPN, I think it goes without saying there will be at least one video showing and a bit of discussion of the eye-poke Allan Ray took last year in the Big East Tournament. Good play calling crew with Sean McDonough, Bill Raftery and Jay Bilas. Game notes for Pitt and Villanova (PDF).
Villanova Viewpoint has a look at the game as does Big East Basketball blogger. I expect a lot from Scottie Reynolds and Nardi to try and take the defender off the dribble. Especially to see Sumpter and their inside players play more to the perimeter to try and clear out things inside for that. Extra unnerving thing. Villanova is second in the Big East in free throw percentage. A definite worry in a game expected to be close.
i totally forgot about that, but as soon as i read that sentence, i immediately saw ray’s eye come out of his socket all over again. ugh.
otherwise, it should be a really good game this evening, i’m looking forward to it.
Graves and Young, in particular, will be a big difference makers in this game. I think they’ll be able to get to the hoop – Graves seems to be growing more confident driving to the hoop with each game – draw some fouls and draw some defenders away from Gray for easy dunks or at least for some fouls on Nova’s men down low.
My concern is really with FT shooting. It continues to be horrendous. That and Gray’s ongoing problems making bunnies are the two things that could hold back this team from making a very deep run in the tournament. Of the two, I’d take improved FT shooting over Gray making more bunnies, because I don’t think they need him to be a huge offensive factor to win. If he can rebound, get 10-12 points a game and stay out of foul trouble, that’s a good enough contribution for them to beat a lot of teams. I’d take more from Gray, but it’s definitely not something we can count on. The other guys seem to understand that they can and need to step up on offense, and that when they do, really good things happen.
Let’s go Pitt!
