Everyone’s waiting to see what kind of Pitt team shows up tonight.

So, the hook for both papers is that Coach Dixon played and was the MVP of the All-College Classic in Oklahoma City in 1986 with TCU.

Twenty years ago, a sharp-shooting senior guard from Texas Christian University stole the show at the All-College Classic by beating Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in succession.

For scoring 40 points in two games, Jamie Dixon received the Henry Iba Award as the tournament’s Most Valuable Player. His father still has the trophy — at least what remains of it.

“The one thing I do remember,” Dixon said, “is that the team manager was carrying it, and it broke on the plane ride.”

The Pitt Athletic Department helped with the storyline by passing out a copy of the box scores.

Pitt is the only other ranked team playing back-to-back ranked teams on the road in their non-con. That of course, has as much to do with luck — how other teams are actually playing and if they are ranked at the time — as anything else. I guess I should be relieved no one is going with the 2004 NCAA Tournament theme at least.
Coach Dixon of course, thinks Pitt will do well against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is led by senior forward Mario Boggan (20.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and junior guard JamesOn Curry (17.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Boggan is a transfer from Florida and Curry a transfer from North Carolina.

“They were big-time players coming out of high school and they’re big-time players now,” Dixon said. “We’ll do a good job on them, I think. We’ll continue to rely on our team defense to do that. Our defense has been good. It wasn’t good the other day, but [Wisconsin] had a lot to do with that. We’ve shown some improvements. Our guys have realized all year long that we need to continue to improve. We’re looking to improve in a lot of areas.”

Oklahoma State has no plans to tone down their running style even down a guard. Like Pitt, they play man-to-man defense. They do want to reduce the number of turnovers, however.

In a 79-77 loss to Tennessee on Monday, their first loss of the season, the Cowboys faced a short-handed teams’ worst nightmare: a tough full-court press.

The Cowboys turned the ball over 23 times and watched a seven-point lead disappear in the last eight minutes.

Pitt doesn’t press and they don’t force turnovers. OSU, though, was already the most turnover prone team in the Big 12 before the Tennessee game. It’s just part of their style of play.

Oklahoma State is only favored by 1.5 to 2.

An amusing mailbag thread has been going through SI.com’s Grant Wahl column. He wrote a piece lauding Ben Howland for bringing East Coast toughness to the West Coast and UCLA. Someone countered that Howland is from Cali and got his fundamentals at UC-Santa Barbara. Wahl, conceded the point and then went further to point out that in the early ’90s the great defense came out of the West with UNLV and Jerry Tarkanian. This led to yet another point.

I find it interesting that in your answer about Ben Howland and “East Coast” basketball that you mention as the best defensive team of the last two decades Jerry Tarkanian’s UNLV running the “amoeba” defense in the early ’90s. To close the loop the whole way, the assistant coach that brought the amoeba to UNLV was Tim Grgurich. Grgurich learned the amoeba defense while a young assistant (he was also later the head coach) at, you guessed it, Pitt in the early 70s. The head coach at Pitt then was a classy gentleman by the name of Buzz Ridl. I don’t know if the amoeba defense was Ridl’s invention, but his teams used it extensively.
— Joe Smith, North Huntingdon, Pa.

Great stuff, Joe, and thanks for the amplification. The man known affectionately as Timgurg is another highly regarded hoops mind among the cognoscenti who deserves more widespread attention. Strange thing: when you do a Google search of “amoeba defense grgurich ridl” you get one result, which happens to be in … Italian. We aren’t the greatest Italian reader, but there’s some useful stuff in here if you’re curious, including an origin citation to a 1971-72 Pitt game that will serve as our Hoops Lingo item of the week.

I keep hoping that Pitt will make a better effort to reach Grgurich, to come back and talk to the basketball team. Maybe even give some advice and some tips. Grgurich is a great basketball mind and one of the best career assistants — he was never one for the rubber chicken circuit and gladhanding portion.
Luke Winn was looking at the Pomeroy stats and sees concern for Pitt because of the defense.

Pitt is both highest-ranked team on the list and the most surprising inclusion. Just a year ago the Panthers finished 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency with a rating of 89.8 — and despite losing only one major player, Carl Krauser, have slipped to 115th. Pitt coach Jamie Dixon is a disciple of UCLA’s Ben Howland (their teams were Nos. 1 and 2 in the country earlier this month) but the Panthers have turned very un-Howland-like in 2006-07, riskily relying on an elite offense to make up for an average D. It’s easy to blame the lapse on Krauser’s absence, but Pitt is also giving up more offensive boards: The Panthers ranked sixth in the nation in 2005-06 in percentage of offensive rebounds allowed (26.3), while in ’06-07 they’re 69th (30.7 percent).

I honestly think the defense and rebounding will be tightening up soon. It’s not going to reach last year’s numbers, but it will improve.

The bad news, OK State is also looking to rebound from a tough loss and their first of the year. They are also without freshman guard Obi Muonelo. The kid had been giving them 20+ minutes a night and 11 points/game. He broke his leg in practice over the weekend. This reduces their depth a little, but unless their guards get in foul trouble every game (they did against Tennessee) it won’t be that great of a loss. It’s not like losing a junior and senior who knows the system and provides leadership. He was a freshman, admittedly, a sparkplug type player with a lot of energy, but I’m not going to put that as a major loss for the Cowboys — especially going against Pitt. Yes, they’ve had 7 players foul out in 12 games, but they still can go 7 or 8 deep. It’s not like they are down to 6 bodies.
Both teams have their press releases and game notes — Pitt & OSU (PDF). Obviously, this is the first time the teams have met since the 2004 Sweet 16 meeting that Pitt lost 63-51. I must be a bit out of it, but it just hit me that Pitt will have played Wisconsin and OSU in consecutive games just like in the 2004 NCAA. I mean, I knew that they were two teams that Pitt had faced that year, but it somehow was lost on me until now that it was in the same order.

Vital statistics for Pitt from Pomeroy, Mid-Majority, and traditional.

Vital statistics for OSU from Pomeroy, Mid-Majority, and traditional.

Here’s some of what I get from all the numbers: Oklahoma State likes to play at a faster pace than Pitt, and plays a more aggressive defense. As such, they cause but also have a lot of turnovers. 234 turnovers by opponents, but 210 by OK State. Pitt of course is the opposite. Not a lot of turnovers by the team nor forced by the opponent — 133 coming and going.
They are a decent rebounding team (34.6), but they only outrebound their opponents by an average of 1.8/game. In fact, they tend to be outrebounded on the offensive glass. Pitt rebounding differential against opponents is +7.4.

A lot of that is because they are not particularly tall inside — they leap, are aggressive and get up there; but are not tall — Boggan is 6’7″ playing Forward-Center, Forwards Monds and Dove are 6’8″ and 6’9″. Back-up Center Kenny Cooper is 6’10” but only plays about 13 minutes. Boggan is their leading rebounder with 7/game. Their guards, though, are good at grabbing a lot of rebounds as well, in part because the defense has helped hold opposing teams to only 30% shooting from the 3-point line — lots of long rebounds.

The big danger for Pitt is that this is a team that can go inside and out. Both the forwards and the guards are willing to do that. They like to drive to the basket, and Pitt has struggled so far this year against teams that like to penetrate. They are also an excellent free throw shooting team at 73.4%.

The Pitt players didn’t like it, but it was clear to them upon watching the video evidence that Wisconsin simply outworked and outhustled them throughout the game.

“I think we got outworked,” said Kendall, a senior power forward. “That’s really what it came down to. We were making shots. A couple of our guys played really well. But really, we just got outhustled. They had more energy. They were more ready to play.

“That’s disappointing. I don’t think we got out-skilled or anything. It was just the little things. They were hustling, getting loose balls, things like that. That’s what we’ve been addressing the last few days, having that work ethic and being ready to go.”

Two telling statistics demonstrate Pitt’s sluggish play against the Badgers. Wisconsin outrebounded Pitt, 41-31, and Pitt had 28 personal fouls, which sent the Badgers to the free-throw line 44 times.

“It usually goes that the team that hustles more gets most of the calls,” junior guard Ronald Ramon said. “That sums it up right there. We didn’t play with the same intensity that they did. That’s why every call went their way. We didn’t play as hard as we should have.

“I’m pretty sure I’m speaking for my entire team when I say we were disappointed in that. We’re the ones playing. We didn’t execute and we didn’t play hard. They were better than us that day. We have to make sure we get back to playing the way we play.”

Both Kendall and Ramon added that the team in general had gotten a little complacent. Coach Dixon, as is his style defended the players from charges of being outworked, but at the same time conceded that the team needed to do a lot more in light of the game.

Players getting physical in practices seemed to have resumed after the loss with Sam Young and Levance Fields ending up with bloody lips.

So, Pitt fell 5 spots in a blowout road loss in the polls. Not surprising, not disappointing (in the poll result). Essentially Pitt gets the spot previously held by Wisconsin.

The papers all asked “what happened to the defense?” They do so in a dumb way.

There was a time when a suffocating defense was the trademark of the Pitt basketball program, when opponents were lucky to break the 60-point barrier.

That is becoming a bygone era for the Panthers, who have allowed 60 or more points six times already this season and are coming off an 89-75 loss Saturday at Wisconsin.

Last year, when Pitt was holding non-con opponents to under 60, it had as much to do with the quality of the opponent. Only Auburn and Penn State were the only opponents that Pitt held to under 60 and blew out with an RPI even near 100. Pitt held South Carolina to 51, but only had 58 themselves. The non-con was filled with bad teams to allow Pitt to pad the record and stats.

Look at the Big East portion — you know the real challenges — in 8 of Pitt’s 10 wins last year the BE opponent scored 60 or more. And in those two wins where Pitt held them to under 60 (57 and 53 against Louisville and WVU), Pitt only scored 61 and 57.

It goes on with the, um, revelations:

What’s even more alarming is that Pitt’s man-to-man defense, formerly its forte, was exposed as one that has no answer for athletic swingmen or big men who can shoot from long range.

Um, that isn’t new. Kevin Pitsnogle and Jeff Green (as two painful examples) exposed that problem the last couple of years.
Pitt was last truly dominant on defense back in the 2003-04 season.

Here’s what Pitt’s defense has been doing each of the last two years and this year with opponent shooting percentages:

year ———– 3FG% ———– 2FG% ————– eFG%

2004-05 —— 33.9 ————- 44.0 ————— 46.5
2005-06 —— 34.6 ————- 42.9 ————— 46.1
2006-07 —— 32.1 ————- 45.4 ————— 46.4

In looking at a lot of the numbers, it seems very little variance on the defensive numbers. Yet, I don’t think our eyes are completely deceiving us about the defense looking a little off, a step behind at times and obviously giving up more scores.

So, here’s a theory to posit, and consider. Pitt is now struggling to control the tempo of the game on defense. Pitt’s overall tempo — especially on offense — has not changed. It is still the methodical, make the extra pass and get to best look approach. The offense hasn’t been the big problem (heck, turnovers are way down from the last two years).

The problem as I’m seeing it, is that teams are getting more opportunities if they push the ball. Pitt is not getting back and set on defense. Too often, players are just out of position to cut off the lane for a drive or pass. You give a team more opportunities to score, and even if the percentages stay the same, the scoring will go up.

Last week Pit landed NJ RB Sharrif Harris. Of course, another target in NJ, Evan Rodriguez chose WVU. Just something to note from this article about honoring High School Heismans, about that choice.

It was a special day for Rodriguez and for Harris. Both Heisman honorees also made their college intentions known on the same day – Rodriguez to West Virginia and Harris to the University of Pittsburgh. Incredibly, the two just might have ended up as teammates at Pitt, if it wasn’t for the Pitt coaching staff insisting that Rodriguez play linebacker at the school.

Rodriguez plays and wants to continue playing Safety. I guess they envisioned putting his speed in the linebacking corp like Tommie Campbell.

I have to be honest. The comments from the previous post summed things up. Looking at the overall box score, what jumps out at me with the Pitt stats are the lack of assists. Under 50% of the baskets came with an assist. Pitt usually has around 70% A/FG. Part of that had to do with Pitt not being able to play Fields as much because of early foul issues, but in general Pitt was struggling with making some of the extra passes.

If someone can find Kendall’s confidence on offense, please return it to the Peterson Event Center post-haste. He had it and some offensive game 2 years ago, but now he just is missing it. It’s a good thing he does all of those other little things. It’s the only thing keeping him in the line-up (well that and Young’s knee).
Tyrell Biggs making that first jumper turned out to be a big negative. Instead of trying to take it inside, he kept pulling up the rest of the game.

I have no doubt now, that this is Aaron Gray’s team and as he goes, they go. He was sick but trying to play through it, and a step slow. So was the entire team.

Brian Butch, just came out of nowhere for this game.

Enter senior forward Alando Tucker – the Badgers’ truth machine – to set the record straight.

“I’m going to give you the real answer, not the modest one,” Tucker said while seated next to Butch at the postgame news conference. “It is.

“For us to see him doing some of the things he was doing in the first half, that’s big for him because. … a couple practices ago, he had been struggling on confidence and I kept telling him, ‘Brian, play your game.’ Me and him kept talking about it and he came out (today) and this is big for his confidence. But it was definitely one of the biggest games (I’ve ever seen) Brian play.”

Damn.

I realize some are heading to position changes, and other RBs presently at Pitt might transfer (just a hunch, but getting stronger), but the 2007 recruiting class now has 4 backs with the verbal from Greg Williams. Plus, there is still the possibility of Bo Williams and/or LeSean McCoy giving verbals. I know you try and get the best possible players, but stockpiling players for both lines seems like the much higher need/priority.

This is not to knock Greg Williams. He seems to be a good back. Both services have him as a 3-star RB. Rivals.com has him as the 44th best RB and Scout.com puts him at #69. He is in the top-100 players in Florida. Plus, we did beat WVU for him. ESPN.com/Scouts, Inc. also likes him (#50 for RBs) and their description is pretty much the type of runner Wannstedt seems to really like (Insider Subs):

This kid is a horse of a back. Williams is tall, well-built and powerful. He has the frame to add at least 20 pounds and could develop into a real force bewteen the tackles. He is very strong at the point of attack and will run right through tacklers who don’t break down and wrap-up. he has a strong lower body and shows he can push the pile and is capable of picking up tough inside yards. He is not a back that will go down easily or on first contact. Shows good initial burst and enough of a second-gear for a bigger back.

Of course, we could have top backs, but it won’t matter if the line can’t do anything.

Yep, watched on delay. Both teams came out fired for the game. Haven’t looked at the comments yet.
That was not what I exepcted. I did not expect 6′ 11″ Bryan Butch do a Kevin Pittsnogle impersonation with his shooting. Knocking down 3s and draining 3s. Unlike Pittsnogle, though, Butch also rebounded.

The killer in this game, was that Pitt’s defense allowed the second chance points off of offensive rebounds.  Especially in the first half. I wasn’t upset at the defense in the first half. It just seemed that both teams were hitting their shots. Some of the 3s that Wisconsin hit, there was simply nothing to be done.

The second half just saw more of the same from Wisconsin. Pitt, however, could not get their shots. Dropping from shooting 52% in the first half to just over 35% in the second.

Wisconsin did what they should, especially when their guards barely contributed. They kept driving inside and forcing the issue. Crashing inside is part of why they could outrebound and outphysical Pitt.

Now, for the sour grapes portion. These refs sucked. They went as much on the reputation of Wisconsin not fouling, especially early. I understand the team that is aggressive generally gets rewarded on fouls, but the calls were highly one-sided about when to let the teams play and the quick whistle.

That said, Wisconsin was the better team. Their frontcourt was amazingly dominant. Four players — all forwards and  centers — had 70 of the 86 points scored by Wisconsin.

Yes, this is very early. I’m starting as early as I can on the stuff in hopes of being done as close to game time as possible.

Couple more articles. This is the Andy Katz article on Kendall as the “glue guy” for Pitt. Mainly how he helps keep Gray loose and how much interest he apparently draws from NBA scouts.

This one is good article on Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan, a tireless teacher of fundamental basketball and a guy who really climbed the ranks of coaching on the back of that philosophy.

Plus my AOL post leading up to the game today.

You know, these teams are apparently alike. You might here something about that during the game today. Even similar home court advantages. That theme continues.

The Badgers, like the Panthers, are patient, disciplined and deliberate on offense and rarely take a bad shot. They play tough, hard-nosed defense and are big and physical.

And the two teams’ statistics are similar, too. Pitt is beating its opponents by an average of 15.4 points; Wisconsin by 15.9. The Panthers also generally outrebound their opponents and have an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio as do the Badgers.

The two teams have also played 3 common opponents.

Carter was asked to assess No. 2 Pittsburgh (10-0) and No. 7 Wisconsin (10-1) because the Seminoles lost to both teams earlier this year. The Panthers beat Florida State 88-66 in Pittsburgh on November 24 and Wisconsin beat Florida State 81-66 in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game at the Kohl Center on Nov. 28.

“I think Pitt has players 1 through 5 who can score when called upon to score. That’s probably the biggest difference between those two basketball teams,” said Carter, who is a former assistant at Northwestern under Bill Foster and the late Ricky Byrdsong. “When we played Pitt they were just phenomenal. They looked like a pro team that night.”

Delaware State’s assistant Arthur Tyson likes Wisconsin. Auburn Head Coach Jeff Lebo thinks the Wisconsin home court is a big edge, but really likes Aaron Gray.

“It’s going to be a great college basketball game,” Lebo said. “They’re both very good, both well-coached. For Wisconsin, playing at home will be a big thing so they’ll have a great crowd. Rebounding is going to be the key in this game. Both teams are physical.”

…

“He’s [Gray] got great hands. I think right now he is playing with a great amount of confidence,” Lebo said. “He’s shooting the ball. He’s passing it much better because he’s learned to play with double teams. I think his game is well-rounded. He’s very efficient.”

In the three common foes Pitt beat them on average, 76.3-60.7 and Wisconsin was 74-60.3.

The lines are finally being released on this game and Wisconisn is given a 5 point edge. The trends, though, look nicer for Pitt.

Oddsmakers aren’t stupid. They haven’t released the line on the Pitt-Wisconsin game with Gray’s availability even slightly in question. We all know this should be a close game, the teams are evenly matched. It’s also the college basketball game of the weekend.

Game worth flying to see in person: Nothing like an early Saturday game between a pair of top 10 teams to get the weekend started, and that’s exactly what we’ve got when No. 2 Pittsburgh visits No. 7 Wisconsin for a contest scheduled to tip at noon ET. The matchup will feature two of the best coaches in the business (Jamie Dixon and Bo Ryan) and two of the best seniors in the nation (Aaron Gray, who might not play, and Alando Tucker). Hard to say which way it’ll go, but it’s worth noting Wisconsin has won 11 straight games at the Kohl Center and is 80-5 at home under Ryan. Just take that for what it’s worth.

That homecourt edge is what makes a difference for Seth Davis as well.

If this is a toss-up, I have to say the coin comes up Wisconsin primarily because the game is being played in Madison, where the Badgers have lost just five times under Bo Ryan and are 42-3 against non-conference opponents.

I can’t say this has me too worked up. For a big game like this on the road, I’d rather be the underdog. What does annoy me is superficial intros to breaking down the match-ups like this.

But there is one glaring difference. Only one has proven worthy of its high ranking.

The Badgers beat in-state rival and No. 17-ranked Marquette 70-66 last week.

The Panthers haven’t played a ranked team yet. They had to come from behind to escape with a 70-67 win over a 6-4 Buffalo team in their last game.

See, I thought this was the game to prove which team was “worthy” of its ranking. It’s 10-11 games into the year. It’s not like Pitt won’t be playing Marquette later this year. Both teams have beaten Delaware St., FSU, and Auburn as well. That said, read the article for some of the match-up discussion.

Mike DeCourcy is also looking forward to it.

Must-see hoop TV: Pitt at Wisconsin, noon Saturday, ESPN. Panthers star center Aaron Gray missed practice Thursday because he was ill, and the team isn’t certain he’ll play against the Badgers. His absence would remove some of this game’s impact, because it’s hard enough to win at Wisconsin even with all of your best.

Whether or not Gray plays, it’ll be interesting to see how Pitt defends small forward Alando Tucker, who shredded Marquette in a big Badgers victory last weekend. Levon Kendall might be the best man-to-man defender in college hoops, but can a 6-10 guy keep up?

This will be my first TiVO test. I have to do something that will likely run into the early afternoon tomorrow (moving a lot of crap I was supposed to do last week, but the rental truck fell through and it absolutely has to be done at this point). So, I’ll be on a little time lag, before I can sit down and watch it.

I’m a big fan of Ken Pomeroy, and the work he does. The numbers and statistical analysis he provides can be quite illuminating. They are, however, just numbers. Here’s an important link to explaining what his numbers are and the formulas used and this one. I’ve noticed some complaints about the Pomerory Ratings because Pitt is listed 43 (hey, Omar).

The ratings are based on an order using a pythagorean winning percentage. It is not some secret formula that only Pomeroy knows. It combines the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency into an expected winning percentage. Pitt suffers in part because a lot of the teams it has faced so far are down in the RPI, bringing down the SOS at the moment. 7 opponents have RPIs in the 100s, plus Duquesne is near the very bottom, in the 300s. It will change as the season goes on. It is not a planned attack on Pitt.

Right now, the best numbers to look at are not in some ratings, but in the scouting reports for teams. Like say to compare Pitt and Wisconsin for tomorrow.

Both teams try to keep the tempo slowed to their liking. Pitt’s adjusted pace is about 3 possessions slower (63.0 to 66.1). As to their efficiencies on offense and defense, Pitt has been a bit better on offense (118.5 to 113.9) while Wisconsin has been a little better on defense (90.5 to 96.0). The edge in defense can be attributed to two areas where Wisconsin holds a noticeable edge. Forcing turnovers and 3-point defense.

Pitt, admits to not being a team that stresses the turnovers on defense.

“We’re a very solid defensive team, we don’t gamble much,” said Antonio Graves laughing when he was asked about the Panthers relative lack of steals. “We are willing to be patient and let the offense run down the shot clock and take a bad shot. We are a very structured defense. We have rules in our defense and if we stick to those we can get a lot of things done.”

That in part is also why Pitt has great rebounding numbers, as well. Letting teams get bad shots and cleaning them up. As for 3-point defense, well Mr. Pomeroy had a great piece on ESPN.com this week talking about how overrated 3-point defense can be (subs. only).

This can be taken one step further by invoking the constant battle between offense and defense. It seems like a hot 3-point shooting team can be immune to a good defense, to some extent. Likewise, a poor 3-point shooting is not helped so much by playing a poor perimeter defense.

Fortunately, long-term data tends to confirm this notion when looking at the variance of team 3-point percentages. Year in and year out, offensive 3-point shooting has more variation than defensive 3-point shooting. For example, last season, 14 offenses finished with a 3-point accuracy less than 30 percent, while only three defenses did. That effect doesn’t exist in 2-point accuracy, where the variance among teams is almost exactly the same on offense and defense.

This tells me that the defense has as much control over the opponents shooting inside the arc as the opposing offense does. But outside the arc, the offense has slightly more influence than the defense. When we only look at a few games, that effect can be exaggerated. How can we use this information to our advantage in mid-December? I’ve got a couple of examples.

The examples he cites are Oregon and Michigan State. Thinking about Pitt, I think we can agree that a poor shooting night by the offense — how about 2-17 on 3s versus Robert Morris — can be a bigger impact than the perimeter defense.

Aaron Gray has strep throat. Aside from sucking lozenges, and not yelling too much, you have to expect him to play.

Aaron Gray has strep throat and did not practice Thursday, but Dixon is optimistic that the 7-foot senior center will be ready Saturday. “It’s something you have to deal with, and we’ll see how it is,” Dixon said. “It’s guesswork right now. I’d like to have Aaron against pretty much any team. I think that’s safe to say on that one.”

I still expect Pitt’s game plan to be a little different, because Gray will still have to be somewhat limited because of the illness.