So, Pitt fell 5 spots in a blowout road loss in the polls. Not surprising, not disappointing (in the poll result). Essentially Pitt gets the spot previously held by Wisconsin.
The papers all asked “what happened to the defense?” They do so in a dumb way.
There was a time when a suffocating defense was the trademark of the Pitt basketball program, when opponents were lucky to break the 60-point barrier.
That is becoming a bygone era for the Panthers, who have allowed 60 or more points six times already this season and are coming off an 89-75 loss Saturday at Wisconsin.
Last year, when Pitt was holding non-con opponents to under 60, it had as much to do with the quality of the opponent. Only Auburn and Penn State were the only opponents that Pitt held to under 60 and blew out with an RPI even near 100. Pitt held South Carolina to 51, but only had 58 themselves. The non-con was filled with bad teams to allow Pitt to pad the record and stats.
Look at the Big East portion — you know the real challenges — in 8 of Pitt’s 10 wins last year the BE opponent scored 60 or more. And in those two wins where Pitt held them to under 60 (57 and 53 against Louisville and WVU), Pitt only scored 61 and 57.
It goes on with the, um, revelations:
What’s even more alarming is that Pitt’s man-to-man defense, formerly its forte, was exposed as one that has no answer for athletic swingmen or big men who can shoot from long range.
Um, that isn’t new. Kevin Pitsnogle and Jeff Green (as two painful examples) exposed that problem the last couple of years.
Pitt was last truly dominant on defense back in the 2003-04 season.
Here’s what Pitt’s defense has been doing each of the last two years and this year with opponent shooting percentages:
year ———– 3FG% ———– 2FG% ————– eFG%
2004-05 —— 33.9 ————- 44.0 ————— 46.5
2005-06 —— 34.6 ————- 42.9 ————— 46.1
2006-07 —— 32.1 ————- 45.4 ————— 46.4
In looking at a lot of the numbers, it seems very little variance on the defensive numbers. Yet, I don’t think our eyes are completely deceiving us about the defense looking a little off, a step behind at times and obviously giving up more scores.
So, here’s a theory to posit, and consider. Pitt is now struggling to control the tempo of the game on defense. Pitt’s overall tempo — especially on offense — has not changed. It is still the methodical, make the extra pass and get to best look approach. The offense hasn’t been the big problem (heck, turnovers are way down from the last two years).
The problem as I’m seeing it, is that teams are getting more opportunities if they push the ball. Pitt is not getting back and set on defense. Too often, players are just out of position to cut off the lane for a drive or pass. You give a team more opportunities to score, and even if the percentages stay the same, the scoring will go up.
