Oddsmakers aren’t stupid. They haven’t released the line on the Pitt-Wisconsin game with Gray’s availability even slightly in question. We all know this should be a close game, the teams are evenly matched. It’s also the college basketball game of the weekend.

Game worth flying to see in person: Nothing like an early Saturday game between a pair of top 10 teams to get the weekend started, and that’s exactly what we’ve got when No. 2 Pittsburgh visits No. 7 Wisconsin for a contest scheduled to tip at noon ET. The matchup will feature two of the best coaches in the business (Jamie Dixon and Bo Ryan) and two of the best seniors in the nation (Aaron Gray, who might not play, and Alando Tucker). Hard to say which way it’ll go, but it’s worth noting Wisconsin has won 11 straight games at the Kohl Center and is 80-5 at home under Ryan. Just take that for what it’s worth.

That homecourt edge is what makes a difference for Seth Davis as well.

If this is a toss-up, I have to say the coin comes up Wisconsin primarily because the game is being played in Madison, where the Badgers have lost just five times under Bo Ryan and are 42-3 against non-conference opponents.

I can’t say this has me too worked up. For a big game like this on the road, I’d rather be the underdog. What does annoy me is superficial intros to breaking down the match-ups like this.

But there is one glaring difference. Only one has proven worthy of its high ranking.

The Badgers beat in-state rival and No. 17-ranked Marquette 70-66 last week.

The Panthers haven’t played a ranked team yet. They had to come from behind to escape with a 70-67 win over a 6-4 Buffalo team in their last game.

See, I thought this was the game to prove which team was “worthy” of its ranking. It’s 10-11 games into the year. It’s not like Pitt won’t be playing Marquette later this year. Both teams have beaten Delaware St., FSU, and Auburn as well. That said, read the article for some of the match-up discussion.

Mike DeCourcy is also looking forward to it.

Must-see hoop TV: Pitt at Wisconsin, noon Saturday, ESPN. Panthers star center Aaron Gray missed practice Thursday because he was ill, and the team isn’t certain he’ll play against the Badgers. His absence would remove some of this game’s impact, because it’s hard enough to win at Wisconsin even with all of your best.

Whether or not Gray plays, it’ll be interesting to see how Pitt defends small forward Alando Tucker, who shredded Marquette in a big Badgers victory last weekend. Levon Kendall might be the best man-to-man defender in college hoops, but can a 6-10 guy keep up?

This will be my first TiVO test. I have to do something that will likely run into the early afternoon tomorrow (moving a lot of crap I was supposed to do last week, but the rental truck fell through and it absolutely has to be done at this point). So, I’ll be on a little time lag, before I can sit down and watch it.

I’m a big fan of Ken Pomeroy, and the work he does. The numbers and statistical analysis he provides can be quite illuminating. They are, however, just numbers. Here’s an important link to explaining what his numbers are and the formulas used and this one. I’ve noticed some complaints about the Pomerory Ratings because Pitt is listed 43 (hey, Omar).

The ratings are based on an order using a pythagorean winning percentage. It is not some secret formula that only Pomeroy knows. It combines the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency into an expected winning percentage. Pitt suffers in part because a lot of the teams it has faced so far are down in the RPI, bringing down the SOS at the moment. 7 opponents have RPIs in the 100s, plus Duquesne is near the very bottom, in the 300s. It will change as the season goes on. It is not a planned attack on Pitt.

Right now, the best numbers to look at are not in some ratings, but in the scouting reports for teams. Like say to compare Pitt and Wisconsin for tomorrow.

Both teams try to keep the tempo slowed to their liking. Pitt’s adjusted pace is about 3 possessions slower (63.0 to 66.1). As to their efficiencies on offense and defense, Pitt has been a bit better on offense (118.5 to 113.9) while Wisconsin has been a little better on defense (90.5 to 96.0). The edge in defense can be attributed to two areas where Wisconsin holds a noticeable edge. Forcing turnovers and 3-point defense.

Pitt, admits to not being a team that stresses the turnovers on defense.

“We’re a very solid defensive team, we don’t gamble much,” said Antonio Graves laughing when he was asked about the Panthers relative lack of steals. “We are willing to be patient and let the offense run down the shot clock and take a bad shot. We are a very structured defense. We have rules in our defense and if we stick to those we can get a lot of things done.”

That in part is also why Pitt has great rebounding numbers, as well. Letting teams get bad shots and cleaning them up. As for 3-point defense, well Mr. Pomeroy had a great piece on ESPN.com this week talking about how overrated 3-point defense can be (subs. only).

This can be taken one step further by invoking the constant battle between offense and defense. It seems like a hot 3-point shooting team can be immune to a good defense, to some extent. Likewise, a poor 3-point shooting is not helped so much by playing a poor perimeter defense.

Fortunately, long-term data tends to confirm this notion when looking at the variance of team 3-point percentages. Year in and year out, offensive 3-point shooting has more variation than defensive 3-point shooting. For example, last season, 14 offenses finished with a 3-point accuracy less than 30 percent, while only three defenses did. That effect doesn’t exist in 2-point accuracy, where the variance among teams is almost exactly the same on offense and defense.

This tells me that the defense has as much control over the opponents shooting inside the arc as the opposing offense does. But outside the arc, the offense has slightly more influence than the defense. When we only look at a few games, that effect can be exaggerated. How can we use this information to our advantage in mid-December? I’ve got a couple of examples.

The examples he cites are Oregon and Michigan State. Thinking about Pitt, I think we can agree that a poor shooting night by the offense — how about 2-17 on 3s versus Robert Morris — can be a bigger impact than the perimeter defense.

Aaron Gray has strep throat. Aside from sucking lozenges, and not yelling too much, you have to expect him to play.

Aaron Gray has strep throat and did not practice Thursday, but Dixon is optimistic that the 7-foot senior center will be ready Saturday. “It’s something you have to deal with, and we’ll see how it is,” Dixon said. “It’s guesswork right now. I’d like to have Aaron against pretty much any team. I think that’s safe to say on that one.”

I still expect Pitt’s game plan to be a little different, because Gray will still have to be somewhat limited because of the illness.

Jay Bilas’ ESPN.com chat (Insider subs.) gets asked about the Pitt-Wisky game.

Ryan (Oshkosh, WI): Hey Jay, who do you think comes out victorious at the Kohl Center this Saturday?

Jay Bilas: Ryan: I like Wisconsin at home. The Badgers had better take care of the ball better, though. They had 22 turnovers against Marquette, which is what you would expect in two games from a Bo Ryan coached team. I think Wisconsin is very good, but I would not be surprised to see Pitt win if they shoot it well.

Way to be decisive.

Over at SI.com, Grant Wahl looks at the remaining unbeatens and lumps Pitt in the group of “jury still out”

Kudos to Jamie Dixon for taking on a tougher schedule this season, including his willingness to play Buffalo (in a squeaker) on the road. The game of the week is clearly going to be in Madison on Saturday, but we’re also curious to see how the Panthers perform against Oklahoma State in a virtual road game on Dec. 21. If Pitt can win at least one of those games, we’ll fess up and admit that we undervalued them to start the season. (We’ll already cave on the so-far-exemplary performance of Levance Fields at the point-guard spot.)

The Cowboys, by the way, he placed among the teams that could back up being undefeated.

Back to the Buffalo game, Jamie Dixon will defend that game and is working the media to join him (Insider subs.).

“If it’s so easy to win these games, then why aren’t people playing them?” said Dixon, whose Panthers are in a stretch of playing four of five games away from Pitt including games at Auburn (win), Buffalo, Saturday at No. 7 Wisconsin, and then next Thursday against Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City (an hour from the Cowboys’ campus).

“No one understands how hard it is to win these games,” Dixon said. “They were [No.] 55 in the RPI when we played them and so it’s a win on the road, a hard win on the road. And that’s why a lot of people don’t do them. When we go to Dayton next year, that could be another good road win if we can get it.”

The win over the Bulls hardly was a no-win situation for Pitt. It was the first real late-game test for the Panthers (Auburn played Pitt to an eight-point game). They had to bunker down, score late, and hold on defensively during a final Buffalo possession that could have tied the game (a 3-pointer missed).

Lord, help us all, Doug Gottleib is backing Pitt.

I agree with Jamie Dixon’s comment in the Daily Word — it is tough to win at Buffalo, and if the Panthers beat Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, they will be my No. 1 team, hands down. Even if Pitt splits those two games they should not drop out of the top five.

Stop the world, I want to get off. I’m forced to agree with Gottleib.

From the Ray Fittipaldo B-Ball Q&A today.

Q: I am concerned that Pitt is not beating teams badly enough. Sure, there have been plenty of comfortable 15- and 20-point victories, but where are the full-fledged blowouts? Florida beat Southern by 56 points and North Florida by 46 points. North Carolina won a game by 46 points. Ohio State has a number of 30-point victories this season. Shouldn’t Pitt be dominating lesser competition in the same fashion? Maybe I am just being crazy. Please put my mind at ease and tell me this isn’t something to worry about.FITTIPALDO: Some of its has to do with the caliber of competition Pitt is playing and some of it has to do with the fact that Pitt, by its nature, tends to play in a lot of low-scoring, close games. You mentioned Florida beating Southern by 46 points. Well, Southern is 0-9 and is ranked No. 302 in the RPI. Pitt’s non-conference games have been against tougher competition. Let’s say Delaware State is Pitt’s worst non-conference opponent. Delaware State is 1-8 but its RPI is No. 117. That’s a huge difference, and it shows the difference between scheduling for Florida and Pitt this season.

But I’m not going to put your mind at east completely, Jason. Pitt does play a lot of teams closer then it should, and one of these times it’s going to come back to bite the Panthers. I’ll put it this way: If Pitt plays the way it did against Buffalo, the Panthers will lose by double digits to Wisconsin and Oklahoma State.

Records matter at this point, RPI not so much. The sample sizes are too small and one game creates a wild fluctuation. We’ve seen in the past how games that look like big wins early become meaningless later if that team is a disappointment. What is a big difference in why Pitt doesn’t blow out teams is that Pitt is playing one of the slowest tempos in all of basketball. While many teams are playing at a faster pace, Pitt isn’t.

Taking a look at Ken Pomeroy’s stat page, Pitt’s adjusted tempo is for 63.0 possessions/game. 313th slowest. By comparison, North Carolina is averaging 74.5 poss/game (21st). Both teams are playing teams are very efficient in their offenses, but if you are getting more opportunities and converting them, you will score a lot more and make the wins look that much bigger.