I’d love to see the numbers, and some of the research. Not to mention that the sample size might be questionable. Still, it’s an interesting premise regarding the correlation.

Recently, national basketball recruiting analyst Dave Telep did an analysis of his evaluations from the classes of 2000-2004. He did it mostly to see how he had missed ranking two future NBA draft picks, but he also wanted to find some trends in the sport. After having a local computer whiz kid crunch the numbers, he saw some disturbing things about players attending multiple high schools.

There were 31 players in the top 100 as seniors who had gone to multiple high schools and 61% of those players failed to meet Telep’s expectations. Of course, academics are a big issue with student-athletes who transfer, but there are other less obvious issues that play into the success rates. In his analysis, 24 of those multiple-school players were identified as having academic issues. Of the seven who did not, 25% failed to achieve their expected level of success.

Telep was quick to say that evaluating high school players is hardly a science and those expectations were based on his judgment, but he also thinks that stability is a major factor in players’ development.

“The issue (of a player’s character and poise) has come up in the last year with college coaches more than in the previous 10 years I have been doing it,” Telep says. “So much of being a college basketball player is multitasking, handling classes, basketball and everything else going on. Players that have dealt with issues, who have stability, seem to be able handle it better.”

Keep in mind how small the numbers are. Only 31 of 100 went to multiple schools. Of those, (61% of 31 players is only about) 19 were disappointing in Telep’s estimation. How that compares to the other sample size of 69 is not mentioned and makes it hard to have context. Correlation does not equal causation.

This sort of thing should be looked at a little closer by coaches you would think. It might give them a better idea about players beyond simply their talent potential. Going to multiple schools is usually a red flag for academic issues, but it might also indicate other issues that could have as great an effect on the court. One more tool for evaluating.