[Editor Note: Okay, Lee not only lives in Altoona, he works in State College. His office, of course is just slightly filled with Penn State homers. Lee, graduated from Pitt and did masters work at Ohio State, so he carries dual loyalties, and completely annoys his co-workers with his teams. Rather than do real work, they demanded his analysis of the season from Penn State, Ohio State and Pitt. What follows is all Lee, and thus is credited as his post.]

But enough about me and the pride of the Big Ten. Let’s first focus on what I’m technically being graded on here.

You are… Penn State

Offense: Penn State’s surprising season last year has made many college football fans forget that it is still coached by the same staff that refused to play the eventual 2005 league MVP Michael Robinson at quarterback for at least two years and then barely started him over Anthony Morelli last fall (remember that?). For most of what could have been a great career, MRob sat behind the slow, immobile, pocket-passer Zack Mills and watched him get literally no protection from his offensive line (a mobile QB like MRob could have helped such a situation, I’m told). For the life of me, Anthony Morelli reminds me a lot of Zack. A great arm, but somewhat limited mobility. So ask yourself, can Jay “I’m here because I’m the best quarterbacks coach available” Paterno do a better job of coaching Morelli than he did the fellow pocket-passer Mills? Somehow, I doubt it. Hopefully, Morelli will spend more time with my boy, Williamsburg (Blair Co.) native Galen Hall, than JayPa.

As a former offensive lineman, I can’t help but focus on the trenches. And I question whether Morelli’s o-line in 2006 will be a whole lot better than some of Zack Mills’ lines. I agree with Bob that Levi Brown is probably going to wind up first team All Big Ten. But you can’t hide the fact that every other person on that line will be new. And experience counts with o-lines. Just ask Pitt. I always hated lining up with a sophomore beside me. So I think that Morelli’s going to be running for his life some this fall — especially against some of the better defensive lines of Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Michigan. Surely, Morelli can’t run like MRob. But, maybe some quick-outs or screens to those wonderful wide receivers or Hunt will help. Those receivers remain the one tool that Mills never had.

(this is borderline epic, so) and, much, much,

The wide receivers will continue to be lights out. Against Notre Dame’s slow secondary, they could be heroes — if Morelli gets some protection. But once again, the fastest, deep-play wideout in the world is useless when the QB is running for his life. How useful was Teddy Ginn when Tamba Hali was chasing Troy Smith around?

Special Teams: Remember that kicking game during the Orange Bowl? ‘Nuff said. Kevin Kelly sucks. Yinz were lucky to beat an average-at-best FSU squad. Kapinos is solid at punter.

Defense: Yeah, I played some defensive line too. Really, they put me anywhere where I had little chance of actually coming in contact with the ball (toss Zilla’s Nerf ball to me in the hallway sometime and you’ll see why). So I spend a lot of time focusing on both trenches. Thank God, Tamba Hali is gone. Matt Rice and Scott Paxson are gone too (and in Paxson’s case, I’d rather not know where). Jay Alford will be back, but never impressed me much (line me up opposite Hali, and I might even get a sack). Shaw and Gaines will be acceptable bookends. But still, there’s enough inexperience on this line that Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and possibly Minnesota will be able to run on it unless the linebackers come forward.

Linebackers, lights out. Everybody says that they’re the best linebacking corps in the country, much like they said Carpenter, Hawk, and Schlegel were last year (and yes, OSU is now calling itself “Linebacker U” too, although to me, the only “Linebacker U” will always be Illinois). Given that d-line, they’ll be moving up on run defense a lot. Given that secondary, they’ll be running back on coverage a lot too. To me, Penn State’s year hinges on whether or not Pos, Shaw, and Connor come out with just a great effort or a superhuman effort. When Teddy Ginn tears down the field, Antonio Pittman blasts down the middle, “Beanie” Wells slices behind the tackles, and Troy Smith takes off, it all be on Pos, Shaw, and Connor to stop them. That line can’t help much, and neither can the secondary.

Against Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, the Nittany Lion linebackers win or lose the game, period.

Your secondary sucks. I don’t even know if Justin King will be able to help much. He might be better off on offense, helping Morelli get rid of the ball.

The Important Stuff

I don’t believe that it will be eleven years between Penn State Big Ten Championships (or co-championships) this time (1994-2005). But you obviously aren’t going to repeat. Trish, they will score points this year.

Penn State 35, Akron 21: The Zips will keep it close for awhile, but their lines can’t keep it up against your lines for four quarters.

Notre Dame 28, Penn State 20: First off, I know that Lion fans are still kind of new to Big Ten traditions and sometimes insecure about their standing in the new league. So let me assure you that, yes, the entire conference will be rooting for you on September 9th. Hating Notre Dame is really what brings the Big Ten together as a family. And nowhere will they be rooting for you as hard as they will be in Columbus (where they typically like PSU anyways). As for the game, Williams and Butler will feast on Notre Dame’s secondary, just like Teddy Ginn and Santonio Holmes did in January. Morelli will be able to stay on his feet long enough to deliver the long ball more than a few times. If that offensive line and Brandon Snow can give him enough protection, the “echoes cheering her name” will grow quiet. If Pos, Shaw, Connor, and King hit Samardzija, Rhema McKnight, Chase Anastasio, David Grimes, and DJ Hord hard enough and keep up with them occasionally, the thunder shaking “down from the sky” will grow dim. And “under a blue-gray sky” (these are fight song lyrics, Sebby), Penn State could grab one of the biggest wins in her history without surprising me a whole lot. After all, look what OSU did to Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

I really want to pick you guys here, but your lines and secondary just aren’t enough. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.

Penn State 63, Youngstown State 14: I distinctly remember Steve Jones making fun of Pitt when they scheduled YSU a few years back. Hypocrisy is always funny (see Mel Gibson). But in any case, Pitt crushed YSU on that day, and Pitt sucked at the time. YSU just didn’t have the size or speed — even for the Panthers. A pissed-off bunch of Lions coming off a close game at South Bend are gonna take out their frustrations here.

Ohio State 42, Penn State 28: The fall of 1978. Disco ruled the airwaves. Up on the Pennsylvanian shores of Lake Erie, I started the second grade. And down in Columbus, Penn State beat Ohio State.

That was the last time the Nittany Lions won in Columbus — 28 years ago. During that span, the average margin of loss for Penn State in the Hallowed Horseshoe has been a whopping 20.66 points. Penn State doesn’t lose close ones in the Horseshoe: it usually gets pounded, even when it takes good teams with good defenses in there (#4 PSU lost 38-7 in 1996, #7 PSU lost 28-9 in 1998). Neil Rudel (Altoona Mirror) calls Ohio Stadium “Penn State’s House of Horrors.” Someday, I think that Penn State will win in Columbus again. But not this year. Not when the Buckeyes have the best offense in college football, running behind possibly the best offensive line in the conference (we lose everybody up front next year). Not when the Buckeye faithful will be all fired up over what was reported as poor treatment of the Ohio State fans and marching band in Beaver Stadium last October. Heck, they’ll be fired up even without that little motivation (we drew the national-best 63,649 attendees to our spring game).

And sure, our defense graduated nine starters last year. But has a Jim Tressel-coached team ever suffered for defense? Besides, Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson will be back on at the tackles, supported by some of the best d-line recruits in the country. Two of the three starting linebacks have previous playing experience (Laurinaitis and Freeman), although they’ll clearly be a major drop off from Carpenter, Schlegel, and Hawk. The secondary will be solid on the corners (Jenkins and Antonio Smith are both experienced and solid), but suspect at the safeties (even though some great recruits are coming in… watch out for Jamario O’Neal).

Will Tony Hunt be able to run on this defense? Sure. Will Morelli be able to throw on them? Yup. Can the Lions keep up with our ridiculous offense? No.

Note my predicted score reflects Penn State’s historical performances in the ‘shoe. No, I don’t think it will be close. It rarely is (2002 being an exception).

Penn State 21, Northwestern 3: To me, Northwestern is a potential upset every year, to Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan. They nearly snuffed out your co-championship run last year before it even started. But face it, they lost everybody last year. New head coach Fitzgerald will keep the pride going, but come on.

Penn State 31, Minnesota 21: You KNOW that I want to pick the upset here. Minnesota has nearly owned Penn State since that fateful afternoon in 1999 when LeVar Arrington just wasn’t quite tall enough to block that field goal (140 miles away in old Pitt Stadium, the crowd broke into a cheer so load that the Panthers had to blow a time-out to figure out what was going on… I was there). Minnesota upsets Penn State like nobody else since the Lions joined the Big Ten. But their offensive line is depleted. Galen Hall can run a ball control game focusing on Tony Hunt and some quick-outs and keep the Gophers down.

Still, beware of this one.

Michigan 28, Penn State 20: Yes, I’m calling for Michigan’s outright mastery of the Nittany Lions to continue. Now hear me out here… Michigan has perhaps the best offensive line in the league — they were riddled with injuries last season — and one of the better defensive lines. In the trenches, where my heart lies, they match up great against Penn State’s youth and inexperience. Their linebackers are second only to Penn State’s in the Big Ten. The secondary is outstanding, the cream of the conference. Chad Henne is no slouch at QB, and there is tremendous depth behind Mike Hart at tailback. Their receiving corps is solid, even with their recent loss to injury.

On paper, Michigan is a significantly better team than Penn State. On paper, they may even be better than Ohio State.

Yeah, I know. Like Lee Corso said last season, “Nobody finds a way of taking things ‘off paper’ like Michigan.” They’ve been underachieving for at least four years now. But Lllloyd Carr (you add one “l” for each loss) is on the hot seat in Ann Arbor. He shook things up in his coaching staff during the off-season. The Wolverines are hungry and angry. Penn State won’t be able to sneak up on Michigan the way they sneaked up on a heartbroken Ohio State squad last year. Heck, I seem to recall that you couldn’t sneak up on Michigan last year either. And yes, Mario Manningham will be back.

The Big Ten Championship will be decided like it should be and historically has, more often then not: when Michigan lines up against Ohio State in November.

Penn State 49 (or really, as many as they want to score), Illinois 14: The Illini suck. The historical underperformance of this program is, to me, one of the greatest mysteries in College Football. Remember, as a state, Illinois has more population than Pennsylvania or Ohio. Chicago is a hotbed of talent, as are the eastern suburbs of St. Louis (across the river).

Penn State 30, Purdue 21: Purdue’s offense will be nearly as good as Penn State’s. Their defense and special teams won’t even be close, though.

Penn State 21, Wisconsin 14: Wisconsin has a d-line with a few holes, a solid group of linebackers, and a weak secondary. Sound familiar? But with a depleted receiving and tailback corps, even the experienced QB John Stocco won’t be able to keep up with the Nittany Lions’ offense on paper. The crowd (Camp Randall Stadium is one of the hardest places in the nation to play) will keep it close, but not close enough.

Penn State 81, Why Are You Even Playing These Chumps? 7: It’s nice to see Penn State starting a healthy in-state rivalry. Maybe, in 97 years, it will be as intense as the one they threw away (with a 12-0 loss) in 2000. Look out for Mansfield, East Stroudsburg, and Penn State DuBois on the menu in 2007.

Penn State 42, Schizophrenic… er… Michigan State 21: Sure, MSU will come out of the gates and upset somebody. College Gameday will start to warn us not to over look the Spartans. And then, sure as the falling of the leaves, they’ll collapse. It’s just what they do. It’s nature. Like beavers building dams. The Lions finish up with a roar.

According to my educated guess, Penn State finishes the regular season 9-3, behind Ohio State (12-0, I’ll discuss this more below), Michigan (11-1), and Iowa (10-2). That’ll put the Lions in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, where they will, again, lose to Auburn. Final count: 9-4 for the year, ranked 12-15th. Not bad for a rebuilding year. But not as high as Bob would rank them (#3? How!?).

Ohio State

In the interests of brevity (like I still have that to offer), I’ll spare you my unit-by-unit analysis on my beloved Buckeyes. Really, the quick summary under the Ohio State/Penn State game above should suffice. To me, Ohio State’s season comes down to one game. Austin, September 9th, just after Penn State-Notre Dame goes off the air. If they win in Texas, they will play for the national title. Michigan could upset them, as could Penn State. But the odds will be against it. As for Mike’s call for upsets at the hands of Minnesota (OSU and Antonio Pittman can beat the Gophers by running the ball right down their throats, just like Penn State and Tony Hunt can) and whichever other 98-pound weakling Mike called for, show me a unit-by-unit analysis of how you think it will happen.

Everybody will be able to score on Ohio State this year. The challenge will be, keeping the best offense that I’ve ever seen come out of Columbus off the field. This could be OSU’s 1994.

If Ohio State beats Texas, they will likely play Notre Dame in the national title. I’m counting on all the obnoxious, self-important ND subway alumni crying and screaming enough to get their team past an undefeated and more-than-worthy WVU. The Mountaineers get screwed yet again. And in response, the NCAA tinkers with the BCS some more, ticks everybody off, yet still refuses to set up a playoff system.

Unless, of course, Penn State upsets Notre Dame. Which could definitely happen.

Pitt

Offense: Tyler Palko, when he isn’t running for his life behind an offensive line that has been worse than anything Zack Mills could have ever imagined, is probably the best quarterback in either the Big East or the Big Ten. Johnstown’s LaRod Stephens-Howling will be a solid tailback. The receiving corps is depleted except for the competent Greg Kinder and spotty Joe DelSardo. However, Cedric McGee and Oderick Turner, two of the receiver stars from Wannstadt’s heralded 2005 recruiting class, may plug in nicely: either could grow into gamebreakers. The Panthers’ tight ends will be exceptional between Steve Buches, Darrell Strong, and Nate Byham — the top TE recruit in the nation out of Franklin.

The right side of the offensive line will at least be competent behind senior guard John Simonitis and junior tackle Mike McGlynn. The left side will, again, be undersized and inexperienced (two small sophomores). The depth on either side of the line is terrible, though. So, once again, the o-line will be Pitt’s Achilles heel — which, as an old o-lineman, always breaks my heart.

Special Teams: Kicking will be solid between David Abdul and Conor Lee. Of course, in Heinz Field, all Pitt’s kicking ever has to be is competent. Nobody else seems to be able to kick there (even in the NFL), especially on the open side of the stadium facing the river (to the right of my seats). Adam Graessle is a spectacular punter.

Defense: The Panthers return Sallet and Chris McKillop at the ends. But there will be a pair of inexperienced sophomores at the tackles. So the d-line, like the o-line, will again be spotty and without much depth. However, some of Wannstadt’s heralded 2005 recruits could fill in nicely. Look out for Jason Pinkston, McKenzie Mathews (isn’t that a girl’s name?), Mick Williams, and Craig Bokor to storm onto the Big East stage.

Pitt’s linebackers will be the best in the Big East, and probably better than Ohio State’s. Seniors H.B. Blades and Clint Session are fast and aggressive (well, Session can be when he isn’t hurt). Scott McKillop (Chris’s brother) was a more than competent junior. Like Penn State’s LBs, they will be forced to support the weak offensive line a lot. Fortunately, Pitt has a better secondary than the Lions, so the LB’s will be less important in coverage.

Darrelle Revis will be the star of the secondary at one corner, and Reggie Carter will be decent at the other. Jovani Chappel, one of the best secondary recruits in the country, will be playing a lot behind the linebackers as well. Sam Bryant will be strong and a hard hitter at safety.

In Conclusion: Pitt lacks both team speed, size, and experience. This is definitely a rebuilding year. Still, these guys are going to a bowl game for sure. Pitt will have to settle for a station-to-station run game given their backs and o-line. A slow moving, ball control offense should be the goal. These guys aren’t Ohio State. Slowly, the new receivers will learn to play. Outside of the d-line, I think that the defense will be one of the Big East’s best.

Pitt 24, Virginia 12: Last year, this score might have been reversed. But the Cavaliers are depleted. It’s hard to run a pro-style offense on freshmen and sophomores.

Pitt 30, Cincinnati 17: The River City Trophy, quite possibly the ugliest trophy in all of sports, stays in Pittsburgh, where Wannstadt uses it to clean the jams out of the copier.

Michigan State 21, Pittsburgh 20: Remember, this is early in the season. If Pitt played MSU at the end of the season when PSU does, Pitt would win. Once again, it’s nature with the idiot Spartans. But seriously, MSU’s running game will be too strong.

Pitt 42, The Citadel 10: Pitt takes out its frustrations on a school that nobody has heard of since they finally started letting women in. Yeah, it must really suck to have to go to a college with girls.

Toledo 21, Pitt 14: Even with Bruce Gradkowski gone, Toledo still has size on the lines. Plus, Pitt has to drop at least one to a MAC school each year.

Pitt 31, Syracuse 21: Mike, Syracuse sucks. Seriously. Watch them sometime this fall. Almost everybody has them picked dead last in the Big East. Apparently, there’s no truth to the rumor that the Big East Conference will ask Syracuse to leave in two years so that they can be replaced with Temple.

Pitt 25, Rutgers 21: In an ugly homecoming game, Pitt upsets Rutgers at home. Hey, everybody expects Rutgers to do well this year. That’s a stone-cold, lead-pipe cinch that they’ll suck.

Seriously though, this will be a close one. These teams match up closely.

Pitt 28, South Florida 9: Yawn.

Pitt 17, Connecticut 10: There are just too many questions for the Huskies at QB and along the offensive front. Their defense will be solid, however.

West Virginia 31, Pitt 24: West Virginia has a young, slow receiving corps and a weak secondary. That’s about all the weaknesses they have this year. And Rich Rodriguez will have had most of a season to work on these weaknesses before they have to face Pitt or Louisville — their only real challenges on the schedule. I really see WVU going 12-0, losing only to the BCS computers (who will whack them on the strength of their schedule) and the Notre Dame whiners who feel that their team deserves a shot a the national title every time the Irish even crack the top ten.

Louisville 35, Pitt 14: Louisville’s defense can be suspect, especially on the line (small) and in the secondary (lazy). But Brian Brohm and Michael Bush will get by a Panther squad that typically collapses after a loss to WVU.

According to my guess, Pitt finishes the year 7-4 and goes to some Tuesday night bowl farther away than I’ll be willing to travel with a newborn baby at home.