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July 5, 2006

Basketball Notes — Prognostications

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 7:20 am

So what are the odds on Pitt winning the National Championship? Not too bad.

Pittsburgh at 40/1 returns eight of their top 10 players from last year led by All Big East center Aaron Gray, who flirted with the NBA draft before deciding to return.

The big leader is North Carolina at 5-1. Florida is next at 6-1. Duke clocks in at 15-1 and Gonzaga at 35-1. Lots and lots of expectations.

Not everyone, though, thinks Pitt will fulfill them. Adam Skwara, the B-ball recruiting writer for Rivals.com thinks otherwise.

With UConn’s entire team drafted by the NBA last night and Villanova losing Randy Foye, Allan Ray and Kyle Lowry – is the Big East wide open this year? Who will step to the front – Georgetown? Pittsburgh? Louisville?

Jason in Louisville

—–

I wouldn’t say the Big East is wide open, but it will certainly have some more parity. It will be much easier for a sleeper or two to emerge this season.

Pittsburgh is the clear favorite, thanks to the last-minute return of 7-footer Aaron Gray. The Panthers have plenty of depth and I expect rising sophomore Sam Young to become one of the league’s stars. Losing emotional leader Carl Krauser will ultimately prove costly.

Georgetown is also a legitimate Final Four threat. The Hoyas are experienced, talented and will boast one of the nation’s top frontcourts, led by 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert and athletic power forward Jeff Green.

Connecticut won’t be winning 29 games again and they will be vulnerable in December. That said, the extremely young Huskies will be a contender when the league tournament approaches. Jeff Adrien will emerge as one of the league’s top big men and word is that guard A.J. Price – who hasn’t played in three years because of a brain hemorrhage – is looking like the four-star recruit that Jim Calhoun snagged in 2004. Rivals.com’s No. 3-ranked recruiting class also adds eight new players, including five-star prospects Stanley Robinson and Curtis Kelly, who will make impacts right away.

Marquette and Louisville are both capable of making runs at the league title, although they will all have to figure out ways to mask glaring weaknesses.

The Golden Eagles will have the league’s top point guard in Dominic James and possibly the best backcourt with his sidekick, Jerel McNeal. The downside is leading scorer Steve Novak is gone. His long-range 3-pointers won’t be missed as much as his size. Novak was their leading rebounder at 5.9 boards a game last season. The 5-11 James was next at 4.5.

With the addition of five-star recruits Earl Clark and Derrick Caracter, the Cardinals are as deep and talented as any team in the league. But without Taquan Dean they are lacking a proven leader and a reliable scorer. Ultra-athletic small forward Terrence Williams is the heir apparent, but I don’t think he has the game to score 15-plus every night. A healthy Juan Palacios is a better candidate.

The dark horse is DePaul. Four double-digit scorers are back, including the best-player-nobody-has-heard-of: Sammy Mejia. If often-injured big man Wesley Green can give them a presence inside this team could be dangerous.

Syracuse is the biggest mystery out there. No one player was as valuable as Gerry McNamara last season (see the 2006 Big East tourney). The Orange have added some big scoring weapons with Paul Harris and Mike Jones to pick up some of the slack.

[Emphasis added.]

Not that he is disputing Pitt as the favorite. Strange, that G-town isn’t being talked up more. They gave Florida a tough battle in the NCAA, and only lose Bowman. I would expect more than a couple prognostications to pick them to win the Big East.





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