Numbers are cruel. Especially when they don’t go your way.

Preseason polls are vital because they establish expectations and give those chosen schools a decided head start in the race for a national championship. And if Behemoth U. is getting a perennial lofty ranking because of its reputation and national notoriety, well, that’s cause for a closer look. There’s little debate that biases exist in the rankings, but until preseason and postseason polls are compared side-by-side, it’s difficult to truly and tangibly know which schools have been overrated and which have earned their station on the charts.

For this exercise, we’ve sampled AP rankings from the last 35 years and are only evaluating schools that have been recognized in 10 or more preseason polls. Trying to cull some meaning out of, say, Kansas, Indiana or any other school that makes a once-every-decade cameo in summer rankings would prove fruitless.

Composite score represents the average annual number of spots a school’s final ranking fell below its preseason ranking since 1971.

The 31 teams that have been at least ten preseason AP polls …
…
4. Pittsburgh – Pitt was far more relevant to the rankings in the 1970s and 1980s, when players like Hugh Green, Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino called the Steel City home. Over the past two decades, however, voters have tabbed the Panthers just five times in the summer, and considering their performance, the lack of respect was warranted. In four of those years, they failed to remain in the polls, marked by a pair of 3-7-1 disasters in 1984 and 1990. Dave Wannstedt’s first Pitt team began 2005 No. 23 in the country, but only managed five wins in a forgettable return home for the coach.

*Composite Score: -11.71

There’s not a lot to say about this that skews this positive. When the expectations were there, Pitt has underachieved. It is worth noting that Walt Harris had company in producing Pitt teams that didn’t meet the expectations.