I wasn’t going to do this, but I’ve gotten some e-mails and there really isn’t any other news to speak of today. Barring anything major happening, I’m going to avoid any speculation as to Gray’s draft position until after the NBA Draft Camp held in Orlando in the beginning of June. At that point, there will be a better idea of where Gray ranks in the list of Centers and in the draft generally.
Right now, it is too speculative but I’ll take something of a shot. I’m taking everything at face value. That means, Gray will only stay in the draft if he’s a first round pick. Obviously if Gray is drafted, the team will know that he’s a project, but the issue is how much of a project. A first round pick, even in the second-half of the round means that he is not a huge project. Afterall, let’s be honest, his ceiling isn’t that much higher. The issues are footwork, ball handling and finishing shots.
In the second half of the draft. Roughly 18-30 there is also the issue of teams drafting for need. Chad Ford at ESPN.com broke down each teams’ draft needs. Some teams are listed as needing a power forward/center. That is not Gray, because he doesn’t have that kind of athleticism. So these are the only teams that would consider Gray in the first round.
#18 Washington Wizards
Team needs: Combo guard, center
Very Unlikely. This is close to where C Patrick O’Bryant is projected and Gray is definitely behind O’Bryant. Plus, Washington is a running club. Gray would really slow them down and clearly wouldn’t be a significant upgrade over Brendon Haywood.
#19 Sacramento Kings
Team needs: Backup center, backup point guard
Possible. A bit of a reach, but a back-up would give them time to teach and coach him.
#21 & #27 Phoenix Suns
Team needs: Center, shooting guard
Very Unlikely & Unlikely. Given their running up-tempo style Gray would be ill-fitting to say the least. They would be better served with a leaner faster Center or C/F combo like Josh Boone or Hilton Armstrong.
#22 & #23 New Jersey Nets
Team needs: Center, backup point guard
Probable. In some early draft projections, the Nets are listed as grabbing Gray. He would fit their style, a more traditional game with Jason Kidd at point but with 2 very athletic wingmen in Jefferson and Carter to keep the floor open. A traditional Center like Gray would fit well in the middle.
#24 Memphis Grizzlies
Team needs: Point guard, center
Possible. Given Jerry West is the GM, I would think he would be more focused on finding a good PG. If they do lose Lorenzen Wright to free agency, though, they might have to draft a Center.
#29 Dallas Mavericks
Team needs: Power forward, center
Unlikely. Looks like they want a more athletic big man to back-up or play along side Eric Dampier and Dirk Nowitzki. That doesn’t really describe Gray.
Lottery & #30 Portland Trailblazers
Team needs: Center, upgrades everywhere else
Not a chance & Probable. Let me just add, boy I hope not. Gray would make sense for Portland at #30, but obviously no one wants a Pitt player going to the poisonous atmosphere that is the Jailblazers. Scary possibility.
Here are the top Center prospects in the draft at the moment.
Patrick O’Bryant — Bradley
Hilton Armstrong — UConn
Josh Boone — UConn
Paul Davis — Michigan St.
Aaron Gray — Pitt
Mouhamed Saer Sene — Senegal (plays in Euro League)
Ryan Hollins — UCLA
O’Bryant is considered the best Center prospect and expected to go anywhere from the end of the lottery picks to maybe #18 depending on the workouts. Obviously, the lower he goes the less likely Gray gets into the 1st round.
On draft boards, it really depends on where Gray is ranked on the board with the other Centers. Chad Ford/ESPN.com has him as the 5th best, and puts him just outside the 1st round at #31.
CollegeHoops.net on their May 1 mock draft has Gray going #20 to the Knicks? While the team drafting makes no sense given their other crying needs, what matters is that they list Gray in the draft order as the #2 Center available.
NBADraft.net has Gray going #22 to the Nets as of May 2. They consider him the #3 Center behind O’Bryant and Armstrong.
It really all comes down to the Orlando Camp and seeing the kids in workouts and playing against each other. After that everyone will have a much better sense of the order of the kids by position.
