No burying the lede here. What will keep Aaron Gray in the NBA draft past the June 18 deadline to withdraw?

Emotionally, Gray said, making the decision to leave Pitt would be “incredibly tough.” But that aside, his decision will come down to this: ‘Go’ in the first round, ‘stay’ in the second.

“The only way I’d consider [leaving] is if I have a pretty good indication I’d go in the first round,” he said. “If not, then it would be a pretty easy decision.”

First-round picks receive guaranteed three-year contracts which, a year ago, ranged from $3.6 million for the No. 1 pick to $717,800 for the 30th and final pick in their first season.

Second-round contracts are not guaranteed.

Gray is confident of what he can do, but knows he will need to show the NBA scouts and GMs more.

“I think I showed a lot this year,” he said. “I put up 25 and 12 [points and rebounds] against a UConn front line that has three NBA-caliber people, and I was the leading rebounder in the toughest conference in America.

“Plus, I’ve gotten so much better and better every year I’ve played basketball.”

Still, many of those same reports say Gray, who has a reputation as a tireless worker, lacks the athleticism needed in today’s NBA.

“Absolutely that’s one of my weaknesses,” Gray acknowledged. “It’s something I have to get better at, but it’s also something I have gotten better at. It’s just another reason to continue to work hard; that’s the only thing I can say about that.”

I don’t know how many of you are watching the NBA playoffs right now. Consider that Chris Kaman, the starting center for the Clippers, could be considered one of the better centers in the league. Hardly a stud, and yet among the best. And he was drafted 6th in 2003. Whether that speaks to the low level of expectations for centers in the league, how much height pushes a player’s stock in the draft, or the fact that it was a selection by Clippers is not completely clear.

Arguably, it also means that as maybe the 5th best Center in the draft, Gray’s chances of going in the first round are not that good. The counter argument is that in the same 2003 draft Michael Sweetney, who is seeking to eat his way out of the league, was the 9th pick by the Knicks. The lesson being, never underestimate what bad GMs will do when they see 6’11” or more on the measurement stats.

As always size is an enticement.

There’s always a need for big men because there’s not a whole lot out there, but it doesn’t mean that’s what teams want,” said Ryan Blake, assistant director of NBA scouting.

While Blake is not permitted to discuss specific prospects, he spoke in general terms of teams considering a variety of sources for the draft.

“There’s free agency, players overseas and possible trades for better players,” he said.

Unlike high school or Freshmen big men, Gray is not as much of a project to NBA scouts so he may not be worth a high draft pick to see how he develops.

According to one prominent NBA scout, Gray has a chance to vault into the first round with a strong month of workouts. The NBA frowns on employees commenting on underclassmen, so he asked to remain anonymous.

“This year, like most other years, there are very few quality centers available,” said the scout, a 20-year NBA veteran. “For a player like Gray, who has reached a certain level … he was dominant at times in the Big East. At other times he wasn’t. But at times he was the best player on the floor in Big East games. That’s something people are looking for.”

The scout said Bradley’s Patrick O’Bryant, who thoroughly outplayed Gray in an NCAA tournament game in March, is the only true center rated ahead of Gray going into the workouts. He said Gray’s commitment to get into better shape, his ability to rebound and his soft hands are enough to make him someone NBA teams will covet in the June 28 draft. At worst, he said, Gray would get drafted in the second round.
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But, the scout said, Gray has the potential to be a high first-round draft pick a year from now, which is something he will have to contemplate seriously. The No. 10 pick in the first round last season was guaranteed $4.9 million over three years.

“If he improves from this year to next year the way he improved from last year to this season, then he might be able to be a top 10 pick,” the scout said. “He probably won’t be a lottery pick no matter what he does in the workouts this year. He’s got a real decision to make. He’s got a commodity. If he improves … that’s what these workouts and predraft camps are for. He’ll listen to the GMs and they’ll tell him the truth. Teams don’t want to mess up with centers. They want to draft them when they’re ready to play. We’ll see if Gray is ready to play.”

And of course, if he improves like that Pitt would also be very likely to be playing deep into March and maybe April.