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March 13, 2006

Local Media Perspective

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:28 am

Now, while I may be done discussing the seeding issue, the local papers need their space.

The strangest thing about the Oakland bracket is how many Pitt connections there are in the coaches.

Fifth-seeded Pitt will meet 12th-seeded Kent State, coached by former Pitt assistant Jim Christian, in the first round Friday; Memphis, the top seed, is coached by former Pitt assistant John Calipari and will face 16th-seeded Oral Roberts on Friday; second-seeded UCLA, coached by former Pitt coach Ben Howland, battles 15th-seeded Belmont on Thursday; seventh-seeded Marquette, which meets 10th-seeded Alabama on Thursday, is coached by former Pitt assistant Tom Crean; and Xavier, the 14th seed, is coached by former Pitt star Sean Miller and will play third-seeded Gonzaga on Thursday.

Calipari was an assistant under Paul Evans and Christian and Crean were assistants for Ralph Willard. Considering the job done by the selection committee, I can’t believe this was intentional.

The storyline on the seeding seems to be, that this is par for the course the last few years.

The Pitt Panthers should be accustomed to this by now. Play the regular season, the Big East Conference tournament and then watch the NCAA selection committee drop them like an anchor. It’s become an annual occurrence, as much a part of the calendar year as Christmas, Thanksgiving and the Fourth of July.

Pitt coach Jamie Dixon tried to rationalize the seeding. Dixon has attended meetings with selection committee members at the Final Four. He said the committee reserves the right to move a team up or down one spot in the brackets to make the brackets work.

Dixon said he knew there would be some movement this year because the Big East received an NCAA-record eight bids.

“We’re No. 11 in the RPI,” Dixon said. “Generally that can get you a No. 3 or 4 [seed]. But they can move you up or down, depending upon where they want to keep you. … geography, keeping you close. With our thing, we knew there would be some adjusting because of the eight teams in the Big East. They couldn’t have three in one bracket. We knew some things would come into play. They can move you up or down the line to account for things, and it’s not so much where they think you should be.”

If South Carolina and/or Ohio State had won, I really think Pitt would have been slotted a 3. It really seems, looking at the full bracket, that the only thing keeping Pitt from a 3 seed were the finishes of Florida and Iowa to win their Conference Tournaments.

Aaron Gray briefly talked about his play late in the Big East Tournament.

Junior center Aaron Gray missed an inordinate number of shots from close to the basket in the final two games of the Big East tournament. He missed dunks, layups, any variety of close-in shots that he made routinely in the regular season.

Gray appeared to get a case of the yips as he short-armed shots and played more tentative than he had all season.

“I definitely think it’s more mental than my physical capabilities,” Gray said. “My coaches and teammates have a lot of confidence in me. They kept passing me the ball. I’ll just have to keep on working on it for the NCAA tournament.”

Dixon did not seem concerned with Gray’s shooting woes.

“He came back strong in the second half against Villanova,” Dixon said. “He made some shots and missed shots. I thought he was pretty good all the way through. We kept going to him. I feel real good about him.”

I think I would have preferred to hear him say he was tired, not it being in his head.

The players are trying to focus on the game at hand:

“Oh, man. I can’t wait for that,” Krauser said. “I was there watching Antonio Gates have such a good game. It’s always good to go against Kent State.”

“There will be a bit of a rivalry,” said center Aaron Gray.

Pitt coach Jamie Dixon even regaled the current Panthers of the lore of how that 2002 team, coached by Howland, had an excellent chance to get to the Final Four, with a No. 10 seed as a Sweet 16 opponent and No. 1 Duke upset by Indiana just minutes before Pitt and Kent State met

“Coach was talking about it,” said guard Ronald Ramon. “We want to go out there and be humble, but make sure it doesn’t happen again.”

Starkey dismisses the seeding issues to focus on the Golden Flashes.

“If anybody mistakes Kent for a mid-major or a team that’s just lucky to get in, it’d be a huge mistake,” he [Western Michigan Assistant Coach Cornell Mann] said. “The difference for Pitt will have to be, you better respect these guys. If you trick yourself into thinking this team isn’t real – and with younger guys, that can happen – you may be looking out of a bus window on your way home.”

Akron assistant Shaka Smart believes the teams could wage a game in the 50s. Both play aggressive, half-court, man-to-man defense, though Kent State — under former Pitt assistant Jim Christian — will use a 2-3 zone.

Pitt center Aaron Gray must contend with Kent State’s penchant for trapping in the post with long-armed, 6-6 forward Mike Scott.

“Kent State has four seniors who kind of willed them to win late in the season,” Smart said. “Whoever wins is going to have to earn it.”

Pitt has a huge advantage inside, as Kent State’s tallest regular is 6-9 forward Nate Gerwig (Schenley). Syracuse pounded the Golden Flashes for 52 points in the paint in a 78-66 victory in December.

Offensively, Kent State is balanced and likes to shoot 3-pointers. The two main weapons are 6-5 swingman Jay Youngblood and ultra-athletic, 6-2 senior point guard DeAndre Haynes, the MAC’s top player.

“His favorite move is to pull up off the dribble,” Mann said. “Their offense is about as simple as you can get. He’ll penetrate and kick to somebody to shoot the three or make something happen himself.”

They don’t make a lot of extra passes before shooting. They only have around a 55% A/Baskets Made%

The game between Pitt and Kent State should have a lot of fans for both teams making the trip. It may only be a 5 hour drive from Pittsburgh, but it is an even shorter trip for most Northeast Ohioans.

“We were hoping for the No. 12 (seed),” said Scott Day, a 1996 graduate of Kent State. “No. 12 is always a big upset.”

Players, coaches, athletic staff and fans crunched into the student union’s basement to watch the announcement live on CBS. As the projection screen showed the Panthers cheering from Pittsburgh, CBS commentator Greg Gumbel said the words that ignited the crowd of several hundred fans.

“They will play… the Kent State Golden Flashes.”

It was great news for three KSU players — seniors DeAndre Haynes and Jay Youngblood and redshirt freshman Isaac Knight are Detroit natives.

It was also great news for fans, many of whom will make the three-hour drive.

Four years ago, Day watched from a Cuyahoga Falls sports bar as KSU upset Pittsburgh to advance to the Elite Eight.

“I’d love to see them play again,” said Day, who this time plans to attend the game.

This will be an interesting venue for Kent State, since they have recruited with success from the area. It also means potential distractions.

DeAndre Haynes is going home. So are his Kent State teammates, Jay Youngblood and Isaac Knight.

All three are Detroit natives, and all three will travel to the Palace of Auburn Hills later this week as the No. 12 seeded Golden Flashes face No. 5 seed Pittsburgh on Friday in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Game time will be announced today.

Perhaps it’s fitting that the Flashes (25-8) play the Panthers (24-7) in Motown. Detroit has long been KSU’s recruiting hotbed. Some of the school’s best players have emerged from within the city limits, including Antonio Gates (2002-03), Andrew Mitchell (1999-02), Ed Norvell (1996-99) and Anthony Grier (1982-85).

Assistant coach Arnette Jordan is working hard to make sure that doesn’t change.

Jordan is a former Detroit high school basketball player and coach.

It will be a concern for the KSU coaches to make sure their players from the area don’t come out pressing, trying to do too much before their friends and family. With all of that local flavor on their roster, Pitt can expect much more of the crowd to favor Kent St.

Kent St. are a superstitious lot.

From the first game this season, a 65-56 loss to Delaware State, KSU players and coaches began falling into a lucky charm repetition of things that seemed to favor victory while discarding that which came with defeat.

It started at the top with head coach Jim Christian. He would not call them “superstitions” but Christian acknowledged he had “rituals.” He wore the same clothes during the MAC Tournament. And his favorite shoes “haven’t seen the light of day” since Kent lost that opener.
layers said everything started to mount over the course of the season. If assistant coaches switched up the order of how they delivered game plans, players would have coaches start the sessions over again.

During the MAC Tournament, DeAndre Haynes focused on 7 a.m. wake-up calls. A locker room fan was not turned on when the team first won at The Q. It wasn’t turned on again. Players said they all started walking the same way. For Kevin Warzynski, “Everything I did was left side first. Left sock, left shoe.”

Senior center Nate Gerwig would not wash his uniform. “I didn’t want to lose that good sweat,” he said.

I really hope it gets washed before Friday.

Feed Seed Rage

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 7:29 am

I’m mostly spent on being pissed about the seeding. After a certain point it gets whiny. So unless I find a really good story, I’m mostly done with the issue.

Best article on the job done by the selection committee is from John Hollinger.

This year was no exception, as it inexplicably seeded Tennessee as a no. 2 ahead of North Carolina, and gift-wrapped a no. 5 seed for Nevada based largely, if not entirely, on its RPI ranking.

If it had followed that pattern consistently, I’d at least be somewhat okay with it. No, it’s not a great way to decide how to put 64 teams into the tournament field or rank them, but if everybody knows those are the rules when the season starts, there’s at least a sense of fairness about the whole thing.

What happened instead is that the committee used the RPI – except when it wasn’t convenient, in which case it ignored it. For instance, the committee had no problem putting everybody in the RPI top 35 into the tournament – unless that team was named Missouri State or Hofstra. In those cases, the RPI was dismissed as a fluke and other criteria were found.

Another columnist thinks the seeding issue was because they rewarded the mid-majors this year.

As the little teams made it, something had to suffer and it might have been the seeding. George Washington was pounded to an eight seed for its just-one-level-above-NAIA schedule, but let the head-scratching begin with Tennessee as a two.

Indiana as a six? The Hoosiers were called a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament. Big East strongmen Pitt and West Virginia grabbing a five and a six respectively? Surviving that conference schedule with the national reputation intact should have merited better seeds.

Mike DeCourcy at the Sporting News thinks that the controversy over teams left out managed to provide more cover to the selection committee for their seeding decision-making.

Tennessee at No. 2? Inexplicable. Pittsburgh had more wins against the field and better records against the top 25, top 50 and top 100 – and was seeded three spots lower.

Syracuse at No. 5? The Orange spent four months demonstrating they’re just OK, then four days showing you something different. Which do you believe?

Indiana at No. 6? The Hoosiers are there with an 18-11 record — basically the same numbers that couldn’t get Cincinnati into the field.

Montana at No. 12? Ask Gonzaga if it would rather play Xavier or Montana.

Davidson at No. 15? The Wildcats beat Massachusetts, Saint Joseph’s and Missouri, the kinds of games others low seeds are happy to lose close. If Montana can be a 12, why not Davidson?

George Washington at No. 8? The Colonials won 93 percent of their games. If you’re No. 1 seed Duke, would you prefer a potential second-round game against a team that has that solid a formula over one against an underachiever?

I’m not seeing anyone predict Pitt to take the 5-12 gas pipe (yet), but there aren’t many picking Pitt to make it past Kansas to the Sweet 16 either. I did find a couple exceptions, including one that is sending Pitt to Indy.

Most underseeded: Pittsburgh is a No. 5, but the Panthers could make a case that they should be a No. 4 and maybe even a No. 3. They made a nice run to the Big East tourney final and finished 11th in the RPI. And Bradley can make a case that it should be an 11 or a 12 rather than a 13.

1st-round winners: Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas, Pitt, Marquette, Arkansas and San Diego State.

2nd round-winners: Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga and Pitt.

Sweet 16 winners: Gonzaga and Pitt.

Advancing to the Final Four: Pitt. (Sentinel staffer Dave Curtis says Memphis and staffer Alan Schmadtke says Kansas.)

I think this columnist picked Pitt to the Elite 8 just for the storyline.

Memphis is going to get some traction in its first two games, but Pitt’s guards are too good for a young team. The Panthers, by the way, get by Kansas in the second round and take down No. 1 seed Memphis in the Sweet 16.

That is going to set up UCLA’s Ben Howland vs. his old team, Pitt, in the regional final.

UCLA is set-up rather sweetly to get to the Elite 8.

Superficially About Kent St.

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 12:15 am

A cursory glance at the KSU site. They have a press release on the game.

I know we all harbor hard memories of that 2002 upset OT loss to Kent St. That team was led by an A. Gates. Not to make anyone nervous, but this 2006 edition also features an A. Gates on the roster.

Looking at some of their numbers, this is a team that goes 9 deep. They averaged around 72-73 points per game but no player averages more than 14.7/game. A little more than 1/3 of their shot attempts are 3s, and they have an eFG% of 50.7. They like to play at a slightly faster tempo than Pitt, but Pitt’s numbers are better on offense and defense.

Kent St. turns the ball over about 13.3 times per game. They don’t seem to rely on a lot of passing, with about a 1-to-1 A/TO ratio. Their biggest player is 6’9″ and most of their offensive production comes from their guards. Two Senior Guards, Jay Youngblood and Deandre Haynes combine for about 28 points per game.

March 12, 2006

The Game To Play

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:16 pm

All props to the Pitt Athletic Department for getting this info out right away. No time has yet been announced for the game, other than it being on Friday. I guess for me, the good news is that since it is Kent St., the game will definitely be shown locally.

The Pitt players all expressed surprise and disappointment over being a #5 seed. They also admitted they knew next to nothing about Kent State. Coach Dixon was diplomatic.

On where the team is seeded…

“A five seed is obviously a little bit of a surprise. Based on our RPI, I thought we might be closer to a three or a four seed. However, the committee can move you up and down based on location and based on other teams from your conference. With eight teams making it from the Big East, that probably had an effect.”

On whether the Big East tournament should play into the seeding…

“I think RPI is the committee’s primary tool. Even after our success in the tournament, our RPI didn’t change that much. Obviously it helped Syracuse out this year, but we got what we needed.”

On whether he’d rather be a higher seed or play closer to home…

“I think it’s different in every situation. It really all depends on which coaches you ask. It’s always a source for heated debates. It’s great for us to be in Michigan. Since playing at “home” in 2002, we’ve been sent around the country a lot, it’s nice that our fans are a driving distance away.”

On being in the same bracket as UCLA…

“It definitely caught my eye. I thought we might end up out west with Gonzaga, UCLA and some of the other teams. It’s nice because I’m very familiar with the coaches and the programs in our bracket.”

Assuming Pitt and Kansas win their first round games — big assumptions — the crowd should definitely be a little more Pitt partisan based on location. Another flaw in the system since the pod system was supposed to protect top-4 seeds from being exposed to likely partisan crowds. Last I checked, a Detroit suburb was a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Lawrance.

I have set up a free bracket group for those interested through ESPN.com. The group name to look for is “Pitt Sports Blather.”

Vetting the Seeding

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:17 pm

I’ve had some beer time to think about this.

The seeding is one of the worst. Pitt’s snub got glossed over because there was so much to sort through in the confusion.

The #1 seeds were fine, but there is rarely much confusion over those. Just occasional disputes as to who was more worthy.

At #2, there wasn’t much dispute, except for Tennessee which shocked everyone. About the only thing they had was the #6 RPI and a non-con SOS of 10. Otherwise they were not looking good. They went down early in the SEC Tourney. They had lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6. In their final 10 games only 6-4. Splitting with Kentucky and beating Florida. They were only 4-4 against RPI top-50. Plus there is an injury issue to their starting forward.

With the #3 seeds, Iowa is reasonable considering their #7 RPI following their winning of the Big 11 Tournament. Florida got bumped to this line solely for winning the SEC. They finished #15 RPI. A non-con SOS of 253. 7-3 in their last 10 games. They were 6-3 versus the top-50 RPI (2-2 versus top-25). UNC is #12 in RPI and of course they are UNC coached by Roy Williams and the defending National Champs.

Let me pause here. In the top-12 RPI, Pitt (#11) was the only team not to be seeded in the top 3 spots. And they weren’t dropped to the #4 line. They fell to the #5 line.

The only other team in the top-20 RPI to fall more than 2 spots in the seeding was Oklahoma. Oklahoma has a #16 RPI, and finished 6-4. They also lost their opening game to Nebraska. They lost one other game to Colorado. That’s two teams who didn’t even make the NCAA. Pitt also went 6-4, but Pitt’s 4 losses all came to NCAA Tournament qualifiers.

Here’s a game guaranteed to piss off. Compare the numbers:

Team A
RPI: #22
Non-Con SOS: # 282
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 0-1
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 8 (8-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 2 (1-1)
Last 10: 8-2
Lost Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #3
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 3-4
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 3-4
National Rankings: #11, #11

Team B
RPI #11
Non-Con SOS: # 227
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 6 (6-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 0
Last 10: 6-4
Lost Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #2
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-5
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 3-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 6-6
National Rankings: #15, #16

Team C
RPI: #15
Non-con SOS: #253
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 7 (7-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 1 (1-0)
Last 10: 7-3
Won Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #4
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-3
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 5-4
National Rankings: #16, #14

Team A: Boston College.

Team B: Pitt.

Team C: Florida.

BC is considered the hotter team, and has a higher ranking. That’s it.

To briefly address the bogus argument of the committee penalizing Pitt for not succeeding as a higher seed in the past, then the same would have to apply to BC considering their lack of success — especially last year. Not to mention UCLA in recent appearances and even Gonzaga when they are a high seed.

About the only argument I can fathom, is that they bumped Pitt to a #5 from even a #4 for match-up reasons. Keeping them out of potential Sweet 16 games against UConn or Villanova. I think that if South Carolina had pulled the upset over Florida and/or Iowa lost to Ohio State, Pitt would have been a #3 seed.

Selection Sunday

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 7:02 pm

Quick thoughts. Barely got home before the selection show.

It’s official. I am an optimist. I just could not believe Pitt would be a 5 seed. And to have to face Kent St. Not good. A 5-12 upset always happens and this could be the one.

Maybe I was reaching with a #3 seed, but at the very least they should have been a #4. This selection committee not only ignored the RPI, but they also ignored non-con SOS. I don’t care what Craig Littlepage said on CBS. BC got a #4 seed with one of the most pathetic non-cons. Illinois got a #4 seed with a sub-par non-con. Pitt was in-between and got a #5 seed. It seems they put a much heavier emphasis on the last 10 games. Pitt was a pedestrian 6-4 in that span and BC was hot.

Really, the BE got screwed when you realize that only UConn and ‘Nova made the top 16 seeds. Pitt and ‘Cuse ended up at #5, Cinci got screwed out despite a solid non-con.

Seeding matters. The ACC got 3 of its 4 in the top 4 seeding. To hear Nantz and Packer stupidly complain that the MVC got the same amount of teams in the Big Dance ignores where they were seeded by comparison.

I’ll have more when I settle down.

Pitt-Syracuse: Disjointed Thoughts

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:25 am

No broadband really feels weird. Go over to Keith Wehmeyer for a better, more coherent round-up.

Krauser and Gray were named to the All-Big East Tournament Team (PDF). Randy Foye, Villanova along with Nichols and Watkins from Syracuse were also named. No shock that McNamara was the Tourney MVP. He was deserving of it before the final game.

I found myself tossing and turning about the game last night, replaying key moments when Pitt missed opportunities or blew a defensive assignment. I’m only a fan. I can’t imagine what Dixon, and the players were feeling (and hopefully those refs).

That’s the hideous flip side to all 7 of Pitt’s losses being by 5 points or less. Essentially, that means each loss arguably have turned on 1 or 2 possessions. Whether it’s a blown call by the refs, a missed open look, a defensive breakdown, a turnover, anything. In a bigger loss, it can just be a bad game, a hot team or something else that almost makes it more palatable.

Pitt is 4-7 in games decided by 5 points or less, and 6-7 in 7 points or less.

I’m pissed at the refs but I’m not blaming them for this game. Pitt came out and played a lousy first half. Forget the 8-29 shooting in the first half, they were 3-17 inside the arc. That’s right, .176 2FG% and .417 3FG%. That Pitt was only down 9 at the half was amazing.

Yes, Pitt’s defense was a little soft in the first half, but give Syracuse a lot of credit. They still made a bunch of those shots. Pitt didn’t when given opportunities. Ramon and Fields went 0-8.

Stat wise, this game was completely befuddling. Syracuse actually outrebounded Pitt 35-34, but Pitt committed 1 less turnover than ‘Cuse 12-13.

While Pitt got startlingly great offensive production from Antonio Graves, 14 points on 4-7 shooting; Demetris Nichols, 15 points on 5-7 shooting was the counter balance for Syracuse.

The same could be argued for Krauser (16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 TO) and McNamara (14 points, 0 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 TO).

Really it came down to the frontcourt. Terrance Roberts and Daryl Watkins looked nothing like the soft, lost players Pitt was able to shove around the last time they met. Both were aggressive and active. They produced points and were strong on defense. They outplayed Gray, Young and Kendall.

Luke Winn who blogged the BE Tourney for SI.com still likes Pitt’s guard production and capable of at least getting to the Sweet Sixteen.

While lauding McNamara and the Orange, there was this to say about Pitt:

Pittsburgh was the forgotten team in this tournament, and rather unjustly so; the Panthers had to beat 19th-ranked West Virginia and second-ranked Villanova on consecutive nights just to get to their fifth final in six years. But Pittsburgh fell behind by 15 points in the first half and had to battle back.

That’s what happens when there is an easier story. A single player and a hall of fame, media savvy coach who knows how to make the big story.

Here are the post game quotes from both teams.

Q. You guys weren’t expected to get to this point. How will this run you made bolster you going into the NCAAs?

AARON GRAY: We learned a lot from this week. Even as disappointed as we are as a team, you know, from just tonight’s effort, you know, we definitely learned so much. One of the biggest things we can take away from tonight is we got to bring it every night.

We started off real slow, and the guys did a great job of playing so hard and coming back. Our team was almost, like, determined at one point. We just didn’t make the final plays to come down the stretch. But, I mean, there’s so many positives that we can take out of this week. We’re real confident going into the NCAA tournament. I mean, we’ve beaten really good teams the last three nights, you know. To come up short to another very good team, you know, like I said, it’s all positive at this point going into the NCAA tournament.

Q. Coach, can you talk about adjustments you made. They were defending high post real well. You made adjustments. The zone looked more intense out there.

COACH JAMIE DIXON: I mean, you know, we didn’t shoot it great tonight. That has a lot to do with the zone. I thought we got the ball inside when we wanted to. I think second half we got a little bit used shot fakes around the basket, got some finishes too, as well. I thought we did a good job attacking. I don’t think it was any different than what we’ve seen in the past against them. We’ve always been pretty good against the zone.

I thought our defense, they shot the ball well. It’s, again, it was close. We want to really overanalyze this thing, it was a close game coming down to one or two plays. Don’t read too much into it. Two teams battles, two teams playing hard, and came up a little bit short on a shot or two and a rebound or two or deflection. It’s two teams that battled and played their hearts out.

Q. Carl, are you going to walk out of this thinking you should have won this game?

CARL KRAUSER: (Laughing). Yeah. Yeah, we’ll walk out of here thinking, “We should have won this game,” of course.

Q. Why?

CARL KRAUSER: Because, you know, I feel that we’re tough competitors, you know. Everything just felt right at the same time coming into the second half. We had the momentum and everything like that. Both teams are great, great competitive teams in the BIG EAST. I just always tip my hat to the other team and Syracuse did a great job.

Columns from Starkey and Smizik to round it all out.

More On Seeding

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:08 am

[At the in-laws on dial-up. There’s no good way to really compile a media round-up at this plodding pace.]

I guess I’m an optimist. Despite Pitt getting screwed by the seeding the other year — given the way the team was flaming out last year, hindsight suggests we weren’t screwed — I think Pitt is sitting at #3 in the seedings. Here’s the RPI after yesterday’s action. Pitt is sitting at #11 and non-con SOS is 223.

Here’s who we should be rooting for to help Pitt with the seed lines: South Carolina, Texas, Ohio State and Duke.

South Carolina: Sure winning might knock a BE team out of the NCAA because of taking an auto bid, but beating Florida would be double good for Pitt. Their RPI (presently about 61) would likely be vaulted into the top-50. Meaning Pitt would have a very respectable 8-5 record against the RPI top-50 (3-2 versus RPI top-25). Also, that would mean Florida — with a worse overall RPI and weaker non-con SOS than Pitt (#16, #253) — would not be able to go up and make the argument for a #3 seed ahead of Pitt.

Texas, Ohio St. and Duke: This is all about keeping the teams they are facing from jumping Pitt in the RPI.

Idle anti-Duke thought. There were rumblings that Villanova is no longer assured of a #1 because of concerns that Allan Ray might miss the opening game or weekend — though that has changed. J.J. Reddick hurt his knee I believe against Wake. If Reddick were to go down to a knee injury today, Duke loses and his return was questionable before the opening weekend does anyone really believe Duke would be penalized?

Any how, Texas is pretty much locked in at a #2 seed. Kansas sits at #25 in the RPI. They are hot, on a 9-1 run at the moment, but are only 3-5 versus top-50 RPI. Being second in the Big XII to Texas. With a win, they vault into a battle for #3 seed despite their RPI. A big win, hot team and coupled with a big name program in college basketball.

Ohio State is still trying to sneak in as a #1, taking the spot from either Memphis or Villanova. Iowa, with their win yesterday moved ahead of Pitt to #10 in the RPI. They have an impressive 10-5 record against the top-50 RPI (5-5 versus top-25 RPI). Tied for second with Illinois in the Big 11 regular season. Beating OSU locks them at #3 and puts them in the argument for a #2 seed.

There is virtually no doubt that Duke will be a #1 seed regardless. The issue is Boston College. Their RPI is now up to #21. They are a hot team with a 9-1 record. On the flip side they have a non-con SOS of 282 and are only 4-4 versus top-50 RPI (1-2 versus top-25 RPI). Their non-con is embarrassing even compared to Pitt. 8 of their 13 non-cons were versus teams with RPIs of 150 or lower (plus GT had an RPI of 158). Even if they beat Duke, they shouldn’t be more than a #4 seed, but beating Duke has cache and might put them up to #3.

Now looking over my seeding lists from last night and now, with some coffee and a clearer head, I see a lot of glaring errors and excluded teams. Especially looking at some other seed lines.

The ESPN.com Bracketology (not updated to reflect yesterday) at this time, has Pitt at a #3 seed and Syracuse at #9. I don’t understand how Illinois (RPI #14, non-con SOS 191) gets a #2 seed. Greg Doyel at Sportlsine.com and Stewart Mandel at SI.com have Pitt as a #3 seed. Even before Pitt beat ‘Nova, Seth Davis at SI.com had Pitt as a #3 seed.

Tennessee has an RPI of #6, but perception of them is falling. Plus, it turns out their forward Dane Bradshaw needs wrist surgery — it might be put-off, but it will limit his effectiveness — that has to hurt their seeding. (The article also notes that Pitt will be getting that contract extension from Pitt. Grant Wahl at SI.com ranks Coach Dixon as having performed the 9th best coaching job of the year.) Louisiana St. probably played itself out of a #3 or #4 seed with the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament. UNC is still probably a #3 seed.

So, yeah, Pitt could get screwed by the seeding committee, but I feel strangely good this time that Pitt will get a #3, at worst the high #4.

March 11, 2006

Seed Predictions

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:13 pm

I’ll come back to the game itself later when I’ve calmed down enough to be rational. I blame Shawn — way to announce you aren’t the curse and then see the team lose, dude. I’m compartmentalizing right now.

On seeding, here’s how I am guessing 1-4 might look tomorrow:

#1s: UConn, Duke, Memphis, Villanova

#2s: Texas, Ohio St., Gonzaga, UCLA

#3s: Pitt, BC, UNC, Kansas

#4s: Iowa, Florida, Syracuse, Tennessee

Wildcards: Illinois and Louisiana St.

BC could be an absolute pain for seeding. They have one of the worst non-cons, but are hot at the end of the year, and what happens if they beat Duke after knocking off UNC. Florida is similar, but they should be expected to win the SEC at this point.

Bah!

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:32 pm

I don’t believe in destiny, fate and all that crap. By extension, I don’t by into omens and portents. If I did, I would have felt really good about what Pitt could do with UCLA under Ben Howland winning the PAC-10 and then Xavier under Sean Miller winning the A-10 before the Pitt-Syracuse BET Championship.

Think I’m feeling kind to the refs of this game?

Pathetic.

Not that Pitt didn’t do plenty to blow some opportunities on their own, but I was starting to think Pitt was playing Duke the way they were calling the game at times.

Still, Pitt blew chances late in the game, and could never quite get control.

This was not the same Syracuse team Pitt beat-up previously. The frontcourt was so much better and actually caring about the game.

Gray is in a tremendous funk or he is just worn down from the season. Either way, he needs to start getting it back together if Pitt is going to do something in the NCAA.

Syracuse-Pitt: Open Thread

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 6:03 pm

For all the Big East marbles.

Win or lose, Gerry McNamara is the BET MVP.

Comment before, during and after.

Winning Big Games Helps

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 1:44 pm

That win over Villanova had a huge impact on Pitt’s RPI. Rocketing the ranking from 15 to 7. While the other schools around Pitt still have some games to play to move them above or below, winning the BET would give Pitt a legit argument as a #2 seed. The non-con SOS may be held against Pitt — go South Carolina — to prevent the #2 seed, but win or lose I think Pitt is at least a #3.

Of course, I was certain Pitt was a #2 when Pitt lost the BET to UConn in 2004 so what do I know. I just think that winning the BET would make it very difficult not to give Pitt a #2 seed.

A little more than 6 hours.

Okay, Just A Couple More

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 9:27 am

Missed a couple more articles that are worth noting.

Andy Katz thinks that the Big East made the case for 9 teams.

Pick Pitt and Syracuse to advance in the NCAA Tournament bracket next week and you would probably be making a smart move.

The thinking here is that no set of teams will be better prepared for the NCAAs after this grueling four days.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim said unequivocally that the Big East conference was the best, the toughest, not even close.

Pitt’s Jamie Dixon echoed those thoughts.

Think about it: Two teams that played on the first day of this 12-team tournament are in the Big East tournament final.

Gone are the top two teams in the country in Connecticut and Villanova. The next two top seeds — West Virginia and Marquette — are also gone. The Big East has never crowned a tournament champ that played on the first day, a team that had to win four games for a title. That streak will end Saturday night.

“Our conference has prepared us better than any other conference since I’ve been around the Big East,” Dixon said. “I’m not surprised how it has played out because of how many good teams there are here.”

Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe really liked what he saw in Pitt.

His presence might not have made much of a difference in the second half last night, however. Pitt was the better team, beating Villanova at its own guard-oriented game with superb outside shooting and intelligent ballhandling. Anyone walking into the Garden unaware of just who was whom would have assumed that Krauser, Levance Fields, Antonio Graves, and Ronald Ramon were the wondrous guard quartet he or she had been reading and hearing about.

Pitt is a dangerous team. It is surely a fearless one, because it plays off the big-hearted Krauser, who will go down in both Pitt and Big East history as one of the toughest, most competitive guards ever. And in the rugged Fields, the Panthers might have his heir — both physically and emotionally. Fields, a freshman from the Bronx, has a mailbox body and a wicked crossover dribble, and he acts as if he would just as soon run over his defender as go around him.

The Big East Basketball Blog previews tonight’s game and goes with Syracuse and McNamara’s magic.

8 pm tonight.

Pitt-Villanova: Recapping

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:19 am

Quotes from the press conference. Antonio Graves and Levance Fields got to do the honors for this one with Coach Dixon. Have to say, judging by the transcript, Fields is going to be really good at this.

Q. Coach, can you talk about the work off the offense.

COACH Jamie Dixon: Yeah, well, I mean, you know, last two games we’ve talked about it. I mean, going into this game, when you’re talking about a West Virginia team and a Villanova team that are very good at a lot of things, rebounding is not their strongest suit. They are great passers, great shooters, great defenders, a great defensive team, Villanova, but we really felt we had to beat them on the boards in a big way. We did that last night and we did it tonight as well.

It’s something, you know, certain teams focus on certain things. Ours is rebounding. We have to win the battle on the boards. We practice it every day. Our drills are based around rebounding, blockouts, getting the rebounds. You don’t finish a drill unless you block out. You don’t get the point unless you block out. I think that carries over and puts us where we’re at rebounding wise.

Q. The way you finished the regular season, did you come in here with a little bit of a chip on your shoulder this tournament?

Levance Fields: Most definitely. We definitely had a chip on our shoulder. Definitely because we lost our last game at home. Being undefeated at home, losing to Seton Hall really hurt us, and West Virginia on the road. Games we both felt we could have won. We wanted to come in and prove something, but at the same time, we’re taking it a game at a time. Now we’re going to get ready for Syracuse.

Q. Can you talk about Syracuse. You’re playing your fourth straight game, both teams. That’s even. Can you talk about playing them and the challenges they pose.

Levance Fields: First off, I’ll say that I know they said no team won four games in a row, so that’s gonna be broken tomorrow. But Syracuse, you know, they got Gerry who is playing excellent right now. They’re big down low. We have to attack the zone. We’ll have to be aggressive. We’ll have to run some of our plays and try to get a couple of baskets in transition. We’ll definitely have to attack the zone and play good defense.

Villanova Coach Jay Wright praised Pitt in his opening statement.

COACH JAY WRIGHT: We really haven’t had a game like that this year where we just felt like we couldn’t get things going offensively. Then I thought that Pittsburgh, once they got a hold of the game, did a great job of just controlling the tempo and hitting big shots, making free throws. We’ve usually been able to, when we weren’t scoring, take people out of what they do offensively with our defense and create some shots. I just think Pittsburgh’s guards did a great job of controlling the game and taking care of the ball. They just did a great job against us.

Q. Jay, you came close before. Given the depth of the conference now, did you think it was inevitable that some team was going to win four games in four days? Someone is going to do it this year, obviously.

COACH JAY WRIGHT: You know, I didn’t. I didn’t think someone would do it this year because of the depth of the conference, because of how much every game is going to take out of you.

This is real impressive, both teams, Pitt and Syracuse. It doesn’t surprise me, any of the upsets, because, you know, we knew we could get beat any night. But it surprised me that somebody is going to do this, and it’s probably the only way you could do it, if two teams played four nights and then play each other.

I have to agree with his assessment of how a team wins the BET with 4 games in 4 days. Tonight could be rather ragged.

At least one columnist in the Philly area is just down on the Wildcats after this — with an “I told you so,” column.

The long version of any analysis of Villanova and its chances for a national championship would include everything from the nuances of the 1-2-2 trapping press to the physics of the long rebound. These short versions would be more to the point:

No big man, no chance.

Too many jump shots, too many risks.

Short bench, short tournament life.

Pick one, pick them all. But the Wildcats must pick themselves up now, following a 68-54 loss to Pitt Friday night in the Big East semifinals at Madison Square Garden, and they must understand that this whole national-championship search might just be a little more difficult than a dedication to gang rebounding and depositing open jump shots.

One loss in the BET Semis and they are exposed as frauds? This would be weak-ass Chicken Little crap on a message board or in the comments.

Admittedly, people have wondered whether the ‘Nova line-up could succeed with 4 guards and staying small. Sure they got beat last night, but it’s hard to argue with the overall body of work. Besides, you have to play the best players you have.

Villanova starts four guards and has always given the appearance that it could be vulnerable against a physical group with strong interior players. Pittsburgh is just that type of team. It has the 7-foot center Aaron Gray, who clogs the middle, and receives solid contributions from the 6-9 Levon Kendall and the 6-6 Sam Young. Pittsburgh dominated the boards throughout the game, outrebounding Villanova, 45-27.

“Yes, that’s the type of team that can give us trouble.” Wright said. “We’ve found ways in the past to eliminate that problem. Pitt did a good job on the glass. They killed us on the glass. We’ve usually been able to be tough enough to outrebound people or spread the ball around a little bit so they aren’t able to be around the basket.”

Good shooting can offset poor rebounding, but Villanova did not do that well, either. The Wildcats shot 35.2 percent from the floor. Antonio Graves scored 18 points to lead Pittsburgh (24-6). Randy Foye scored 26 points to lead Villanova (25-4). Kyle Lowry (10 points) was the only other player to reach double figures for the Wildcats. This was the first meeting this season between the two teams.

In the BET, the NYC papers drop into open local homerism at times. In that respect, they have loved Pitt the last few years and especially this match-up.

With Ray and Newark’s Randy Foye in the backcourt, Villanova’s rise to the highest levels of college basketball has had a local flavor, but Pittsburgh has three city guards – Levance Fields from Brooklyn and Krauser and Ramon of the Bronx – and now has wrested the stage away.

“I’d expect New Yorkers to look to Pittsburgh for some really good stories,” Krauser said.

I’m truly impressed with Kendall playing. He really came in and helped Pitt establish the control of the glass. Snaring 7 rebounds and playing 23 minutes. And those 6 points all from the free throw line, put Pitt in a controlling double digit lead before halftime. His play really helped change the tone and gave a vibe that Pitt was in control of the game.

Pitt received a boost from junior forward Levon Kendall, who played one day after back spasms forced him to miss the quarterfinal victory against West Virginia. Kendall did not start, but he came off the bench to provide solid defense and rebounding.

“I felt good,” Kendall said. “I got enough medication in me that it didn’t bother me too much. Hopefully, it’s the same way [this] morning.”

Pitt had an 11-point lead at halftime and boosted the lead to 14 twice midway through the second half. A few minutes later the lead was 18 points after Graves and Krauser made back-to-back 3-pointers.

Sam Young is going to get so much better if he learns from Kendall about positioning and boxing out on rebounds. He’ll become a monster on the boards and get a lot of easy baskets on putbacks. Aaron Gray seems to still have his confidence despite some really amazing misses right at the basket. He’s at least feeling better about shooting free throws after the WVU game.

Smizik isn’t sure what to think right now. He too is stunned that Pitt could win and control the game without much from Krauser and Gray.

It was well known it would require Pitt’s finest effort to defeat the Wildcats, who came in at 25-3 and ranked second in the polls, and that is precisely what was forthcoming.

The most astonishing aspect of this victory is that Pitt won with minimal contributions from its two best players and leading scorers, Carl Krauser and Aaron Gray.

Krauser played only 20 minutes because of foul trouble and scored nine points, but five of those came from the free-throw line in the final minute, long after the game had been decided. Gray continued to have a terrible shooting touch close to the basket. He missed 7 of 9 shots and finished with five points and seven rebounds, well below his averages.

But what Krauser and Gray didn’t provide, others did. Stepping up doesn’t begin to describe the play off the bench of guards Levance Fields and Antonio Graves.

Krauser did provide 6 assists in his 20 minutes and Gray, tied with Kendall, led with 7 rebounds. They just didn’t do much scoring.

Joe Starkey is excited because the win over Villanova is the signature win for Pitt’s season to date.

Think about how close Pitt was to being a No. 1 seed: Before last night, its previous six losses were by an average of 3.8 points, none worse than five. It’s a credit to the coaching staff and to the internal leadership that Pitt did not have a complete stinker of a game all season (the St. John’s game was bad, but also quite winnable). How many teams can say that? None in the Big East. Every one of them lost at least once by double digits.

Pitt’s style sometimes prevents it from blowing teams out, but, more importantly, virtually assures it will be in every game. The last time the Panthers lost by double figures was two years ago against Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 (63-51), and that game was plenty competitive.

Meanwhile, Pitt obviously has corrected its problems from last season in defending the 3-pointer. Those who still rip its outside defense should heed the words of WVU coach John Beilein, who said Thursday, “It was a bad matchup for us as far as quickness on the perimeter.”

What is there not to like about this team right now?

He’s practically giddy.

Now, it’s time to get ready for the ‘Cuse.

And yes, Matt, we all have our superstitions kicking into overdrive right now.

Pitt-Villanova: The Eye

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 7:38 am

Allan Ray didn’t even spend the night at the hospital.

Standing on a podium surrounded by the media, Jay Wright was easily the happiest losing coach in the history of college basketball.

About to head out of the Madison Square Garden doors and rush to the hospital to see Allan Ray, who had suffered what looked like a terrible eye injury, Wright got a phone call that changed everything.

Doctors at St. Vincent’s Hospital called Wright to say that Ray not only was fine, but would be released immediately and be able to travel home with his Villanova teammates this morning.

“We just got great news,” a beaming Wright said. “This is the best news possible. When everything happened, we heard a lot of scenarios, and this is the best-case scenario.”

Wright said Ray’s vision was restored completely. He was released only with antibiotic drops, and suffered a soft-tissue injury, not a torn cornea or anything more serious.

On the subject of the instant replay:

The injury was so gruesome that after showing one slow-motion replay, ESPN elected not to show another.

Krauser was shaken and relieved at the news after the game.

Krauser, who played at Stevenson, also was more concerned about Ray, who played at St. Ray’s.

“Allan Ray’s like a little brother to me,” said Krauser, whose finger was swollen from the impact. “I know his whole family. It’s crazy to see one of my little brother’s go down. It’s crazy. I don’t even know what to say about it.”

Some see the injury to Ray in the context of just how star-crossed by injuries this ‘Nova team has been over the recent years.

Dealing with injury is nothing unusual for the Wildcats, of course.

They played all season without Curtis Sumpter, who tore a knee ligament in a preseason practice. The Wildcats played against North Carolina in last year’s NCAA tournament, when he tore the same knee ligament.

Through their four years, they have also seen Jason Fraser undergo seven surgeries for injuries.

And Mike Nardi was out with tonsillitis this year.

Prevailing without Ray would be a tough task.

“This gives us something we’re going to have to handle,” Wright said. “That’s life. We’ll find a way.”

The 6-foot-2 senior, who is a first-team all-Big East selection from the Bronx, averages 19.1 points and four rebounds per game.

As part of the starting four-guard lineup, Ray is the Wildcats’ best three-point shooter, averaging 38.1 percent on treys.

Without Ray, the Wildcats were too undermanned to stage a comeback against the Panthers (24-6), who will face Syracuse in tonight’s championship game. Syracuse beat Georgetown, 58-57, in the earlier semifinal.

The Panthers, whom the Wildcats did not face in the regular season, held Villanova to its second-lowest scoring performance of the season.

“They played well enough we might have lost with Allan,” Wright said. “We just didn’t have it today.”

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