You think it’s fun trying to figure out the permutations for the top half of the Big East Tournament bracket? Try calculating all the permutations for the bottom 4 that stay at home and the order of the #8-12.

The season could end with a 5-way tie for spots nos. 10-14 with 6-10 records. DePaul isn’t even officially eliminated yet. They could still conceivably win tonight over Syracuse and then knock out ND on Saturday (unlikely given the way their season has collapsed, but…). Won’t that be fun to use the tie-breaker rules (PDF) at that kind of level.

I will just about guarantee a 2-way tie (ND and Louisville) for 11 and 12 with Louisville at #11 and ND #12 (Louisville beat ND head-to-head). That would mean Rutgers beats St. John’s, knocking out St. John’s and putting RU as a #10 seed. Providence loses to Marquette to be eliminated.

I’m thinking around a 4-way is a more likely scenario. Providence doesn’t make it because it will lose to Marquette. St. John’s (1) knocks off a demoralized and down Rutgers (2) team. Notre Dame (3) takes care of DePaul. Louisville (4) falls to UConn.

That leaves 4 teams and 3 seats at the BET. The mini-conference tie-breaker looks like this:

#10 St. John’s: 3-0 (a win over Louisville and 2 against Rutgers)
#11 Notre Dame: 1-1 (win over Rutgers, loss to Louisville)
#12 Louisville: 1-2 (win over ND, losses to Rutgers and St. John’s)
——–
#13 Rutgers: 1-3 (win over Louisville, 2 losses to St. John’s and 1 to ND)

If Pitt wins against Seton Hall and Georgetown beats USF, Pitt would face Louisville at 2 pm this Wednesday. If Pitt loses, they become the #6 seed and face ND at 9pm. If Georgetown (somehow, please) loses to USF, G-town drops to the #6 seed and Marquette becomes the #5 seed.