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December 15, 2005

Respect Won’t Be Paid

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 9:21 am

Unlike the name basketball schools — UNC, Arizona, Kansas or UCLA — or schools with name coaches — Michigan State, Syracuse, UConn or Louisville — Pitt is not allowed to have a disappointing/below expectations year and expect to be re-embraced the following season. So Pitt’s 7-0 start is not going to get Pitt that much love yet.

In fact, it will be looked at critically to explain why it is so misleading. So when Grant Wahl of SI.com says Pitt’s schedule is so weak that it is second only to Texas A&M in the country (hat tip, Dave), this shouldn’t be surprising.

As I have written several times, going into the season Pitt’s non-con was weak but it appeared better than it had been. I also don’t mind as much in a rebuilding year that is also key to the program and coach’s future. Honestly, though, through the first 2/3 of the non-con, it has been even weaker than expected.

Team ——- Record
St. Peter’s —– 4-4
Robert Morris — 3-4
Maine ———- 3-6
St. Francis (NY) — 2-5
Auburn ——– 4-2
Duquesne —— 1-5
Penn State —– 4-3
———————–
Combined Record — 21 – 29

Those names and records alone would make most scoff at what a team has done to this point. Now add in the RPI of the teams played to this point (flawed I know to use RPI with such a small sample set, but bear with me): 90, 242, 304, 274, 25, 307, 98. That averages out to 191.43 per team.

Now, if this wasn’t Pitt I wouldn’t even have them on a top-25 ballot.

If you want to feel good about Pitt, take a look at Pitt being ranked #11 right now in the Pomeroy rankings (explanation for it here).

[Editor note: For those of you who weren’t reading this blog last basketball season, Ken Pomeroy does some amazing work with stats and information regarding college basketball. I’m a big fan of what he does, and will cite it with some frequency because it is so interesting to me.]

But even then, you see Pitt has a horrible non-con strength of schedule to this point — #267.

Now for comparison’s sake, let’s talk about this year’s version of last year’s Pitt. (Meaning a team that is a bit more overrated based on the previous year’s accomplishment and media affection for players and/or coach.) That would be Boston College.

BC started the season ranked in the top 15 and got as high as #6 before losing consecutive road games to top-20 teams (including an early conference game). They are still ranked despite, in my opinion, not yet doing anything. They have a few things going for them: 1) they started the season ranked and it is harder to fall out of the rankings then crack the rankings (Pitt enjoyed that last season); 2) they have played a name, ranked team on the road in the non-con — sure they lost to Michigan St., but they played them — and they got to play in a tournament, i.e., a neutral site; and 3) the likeability factor — a head coach, Al Skinner, who gets fawning treatment and players, Craig Smith and Jared Dudley, with name recognition — making it easier to keep voting for them (again, Pitt benefited with this regarding Troutman, Taft and Krauser).

It just comes down to Pitt winning it’s full non-con. That means going down to South Carolina and taking care of business, then doing the same at home against Wisconsin. And even if that happens, you can be sure someone will take a shot at Pitt’s record and say they only beat one team.

My advice, save the outrage and hope the non-cons we beat, play well the rest of the year (excepting Penn State).





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