My friends, and probably many long-time readers of this blog know I love numbers and stats. Matt of Orange 44 runs the Pythagora records for Big East teams, to see which teams are overachieving and which teams are under achieving (and by how much).

Pythagora records are best done with larger sample sizes — and are not as well applied to football as to baseball because of it. Still it can be illustrating. Here’s how the formula works:

Expected Wins = G * PF² / (PF² + PA²)

G= games; PF= points for; PA = points against

5.1 = 8*210² / (210² + 156²)

Pitt is underachieving by one game, which seems about right. Their Pythagora record says 5-3.

Click over to find out which team is the biggest overachiever and underachiever this year. It might surprise you.

And I apparently have some issues. Here’s this week’s full blast blogpoll, and here’s where you can see individual ballots. My ballot is here.

Amusingly enough, this week I got listed in the “Mr. Manic-Depressive” section for the way my ballot shifted. The odd thing (at least to me) is that the week before my ballot was put in the category of “Mr. Stubborn.” It’s a thin line I guess.

Okay, this story’s premise just made no frickin’ sense to me.

Louisville’s high-powered passing game generates a lot of buzz by producing a lot of points. But that doesn’t mean Pitt’s defense will overlook tailback Michael Bush when the teams clash Thursday night.

“He doesn’t fly underneath my radar, not with 800-some yards on the season,” Panthers defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads said.

“The tailback position is averaging 200 yards a game, and he leads them with 116. He’s big, he’s fast, he runs over you. Even if they’re passing for over 300 (yards), you’d better be able to control that run game if you’re going to have a chance.”

Bush, a junior, is the Big East’s leading rusher in his first season as a starter. In fact, he was not even a full-time tailback until last year.

“He’s still kind of learning the position,” Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm said. “He’s such a great athlete; he can do just about anything.”

Are you kidding me about even pretending to overlook Mike Bush? The guy is the leading rusher in the BE (#12 in the country) and averages 5.5 yards/carry. He and USF RB Andre Hall are the only non-QBs on the BE leader board in terms of total offense. He has a total of 999 yards running and receiving in 7 games, or 142.7 yards/game in offense (#23 in the country). And you even want to pretend Pitt would be overlooking Bush? Sorry, that is just a dumb premise for a story on how good Bush is.

This article, though, looks at how Louisville Coach Petrino landed both local products Mike Bush and QB Brian Brohm. It mainly ends up focusing on how Petrino somehow managed to keep Bush — who came to Louisville to play QB — from transferring once Brohm signed and converted him to Running Back.

Louisville is playing for more than just pride, given their BCS dreams are dead. They want a shot at playing in a real bowl.

“We could go to the Gator Bowl and play an ACC team,” tailback Michael Bush said. “To me, that’s a step above the Liberty Bowl.”

For Pitt, it is confirmed that DT Thomas Smith is out for the game and Freshman Rashaad Duncan will get his first start.

Naturally, despite being a nearly 21 point underdog on the road, Coach Wannstedt likes the team’s chances.

But Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said yesterday that the Panthers are confident and he can tell by their approach this week that they believe they can win the game.

“We’ve had a good week of practice,” Wannstedt said. “I think as a head coach you tell them what it is going to take to win and then I think you stand back. Then, as you stand back and watch them practice, you really get a feel for their mental focus, for how physical they are practicing and that gives you a good idea if the players believe or not.

“And, like I said, our practices have been good. We know that Louisville is a really good team, but we’ll show up and give it our best shot.”

The Louisville paper goes with the theme of Pitt trying to salvage this season from the high hopes to crushing reality.

The University of Pittsburgh football season has followed a script that will seem very familiar in these parts — huge preseason hype drowned by some disappointing losses, leaving the team in salvage mode.
…
Linebacker H.B. Blades is coming off an 11-tackle performance against Syracuse, and that’s his average per game, leading all Big East defenders. The Panthers have the top-ranked red-zone defense in the conference, allowing just 10 touchdowns in 22 opponent chances inside their 20. They’re also allowing opponents to convert just 28 percent of their third downs. U of L’s opponents have converted on 41.3 percent of their third downs.

“They’re big and physical on defense,” Petrino said. “They have two 300-pounders inside that are hard to move around. They’ve got a really good middle linebacker and have been playing very good defense. Offensively, you’ve got to contend with Palko, who not only can throw the ball downfield but also can run. So we’ve got a lot of preparation ahead of us. Both teams will come in ready to play. They certainly have to feel they’re right in contention at 3-1 for the conference championship, and we want to win at home.”

Pitt’s players, who know something about turning slow starts into big finishes, said the early season was less about losing than learning.

Palko likened the early games this season to “being a rookie again,” but promised, “I’m starting to settle in. It won’t be long before that guy you remember from last year is back.”

Pitt will need that guy.

Louisville Defensive End, Elvis Dumervil feels like he was taken out of context for the article on doing a sack dance if he gets to Palko. He tries to set the record straight.

“I said what I said, but I think it got kind of remixed a little,” he said. “He asked a question about Papa John’s and the atmosphere and playing the Elvis music after I get sacks. And he asked if I did any kind of celebration, and I said I haven’t, but a lot of people have been asking me if I was going to do anything in connection with my name, and that might be a surprise for our fans if I went out and did a little dance or something.

“I did say that if I’m able — and I made sure to say ‘if’ — to get to Tyler Palko, I might have a surprise for the fans. But I didn’t mean to be come out saying I had a surprise for Palko or Pittsburgh.”

Dumervil has tried to be understated all season, and he said he won’t change that against the Panthers.

“Now it’s like, maybe next game I’ll try to do something, and it would just be something for our fans,” he said. “Right now I don’t want to bring a bad name to the program at all or do anything to disrespect Pittsburgh.”

Really, it’s a silly thing. Not a fan of sack celebrations, but don’t care either. It looks though, like it got blown out of proportion. (Dumervil wasn’t happy about how it got used.)

More importantly in the article are the injury updates. Outside Linebacker Abe Brown will play for the first time in a month. Before the injury he was averaging 5.8 tackles per game and is still tied for the team lead with 3 pass break-ups. Deep threat Wide ReceiverMario Urrutia has been running in practice but is still unlikely to play.

Back to Dumervil, OT Charles Spencer is looking for the challenge.

“Just like in previous weeks, I’ve been getting it all week (from the coaches) in practice,” Spencer said with a chuckle.

Spencer tied up Syracuse defensive ends James Wyche and Ryan LaCasse, holding them to just one sack in Pitt’s 34-17 victory. On Thursday, Spencer will tangle with Louisville’s sack master Elvis Dumervil.

“It was a pretty good match for me and (Wyche) because we’re both tall and we have long arms,” Spencer said. “Dumervil is shorter (6-feet), and if you allow him to, he’ll get leverage on you and try to bull rush you.

“He’s very quick off the ball, so I’ve been practicing all week jumping off the ball as fast as I can. If he gets off first, he’s going to win.”
…
Wannstedt said Spencer and right tackle Mike McGlynn will be ready to face Dumervil.

“This will be a real good barometer to see if we’re making any progress,” Wannstedt said.

You know, when you are facing an All-American and the leading sack machine in the country, I think it is more than merely a barometer. It’s more akin to a final exam.

You know the good thing about the Thursday night football for the basketball team is there is no excuse not to go see Pitt play its first exhibition game on Saturday night. Pitt gets to beat down upon Slippery Rock at 7:30. Might be worth checking out, especially since the other exhibition game vs. St. Peters overlaps the following Saturday with the UConn football game.

Correction: Mistake on my part, skimmed the article too quickly. St. Peter’s is on Nov. 19 and is the regular season opener. The other exhibition game is against IUP, but it is on Sunday, Nov. 13. The article made the mistake there, and I didn’t double check the schedule.

As this story regarding the Blue-Gray scrimmage indicates, Freshman Sam Young was the one catching everyone’s attention.

The excitement from the fans’ standpoint started early in the scrimmage when Young took a long feed and finished with an acrobatic dunk. If that wasn’t exciting enough, he did it a second time. Not even two minutes later, he stepped out and drained a three.

“He’s going to play inside and out,” Dixon said about Young’s versatility. “He has the ability to do that.”

Young is also catching the eye of his teammates.

“He’s more of an official slasher,” Krauser said. “He’s kind of like Desmond Mason of the Milwaukee Bucks. Sam is a great player and a great addition to the team.” Young finished with a game-high 18 points and eight rebounds.

Levon Kendall and Aaron Gray are presumed be Pitt’s starting front court — at least to start the season. Kendall will likely have to fight off plenty of challengers, while Gray will have to fight against picking up too many fouls too quickly in games.

You know the good thing about the Thursday night football for the basketball team is there is no excuse not to go see Pitt play its first exhibition game on Saturday night. Pitt gets to beat down upon Slippery Rock at 7:30. Might be worth checking out, especially since the other exhibition game vs. St. Peters overlaps the following Saturday with the UConn football game.

Correction: Mistake on my part, skimmed the article too quickly. St. Peter’s is on Nov. 19 and is the regular season opener. The other exhibition game is against IUP, but it is on Sunday, Nov. 13. The article made the mistake there, and I didn’t double check the schedule.

As this story regarding the Blue-Gray scrimmage indicates, Freshman Sam Young was the one catching everyone’s attention.

The excitement from the fans’ standpoint started early in the scrimmage when Young took a long feed and finished with an acrobatic dunk. If that wasn’t exciting enough, he did it a second time. Not even two minutes later, he stepped out and drained a three.

“He’s going to play inside and out,” Dixon said about Young’s versatility. “He has the ability to do that.”

Young is also catching the eye of his teammates.

“He’s more of an official slasher,” Krauser said. “He’s kind of like Desmond Mason of the Milwaukee Bucks. Sam is a great player and a great addition to the team.” Young finished with a game-high 18 points and eight rebounds.

Levon Kendall and Aaron Gray are presumed be Pitt’s starting front court — at least to start the season. Kendall will likely have to fight off plenty of challengers, while Gray will have to fight against picking up too many fouls too quickly in games.