The Paul Zeise Q&A is back.

Lots of questions about the old unis, the O-line, comparisons to 2001 — where he mentions the spread offense crap — and other stuff.

Zeise missed last week because of the short week.

This piece is so fundamentally flawed it deserved its own post. You know the old axiom that numbers can prove anything. True, only insofar as no one looks closely. That was the plan behind this Bob Smizik column.

All is not well at the University of Pittsburgh where the football team has lost four of five games with two of those defeats coming against teams the Panthers were expected to beat, if not dominate. Pitt has been so disappointing it wouldn’t be shocking if it lost to Big East Conference lightweight Cincinnati (2-2), when the teams meet tomorrow at Heinz Field.

Not surprising, fingers are being pointed in every direction, with an abundance of them directed at first-year coach Dave Wannstedt.

This column is on record as considering Wannstedt an excellent hire and that opinion won’t change after five games.

Clearly, though, something is missing at Pitt, and Wannstedt and his staff must share at least some if not a majority of the blame.

Good start. I agree completely.

But in one area where Wannstedt is receiving much criticism, he is not to blame.

The notion persists that Wannstedt is attempting to run an offense that doesn’t fit his personnel.

The belief is he’s too married to the run, while his personnel, after years of playing for Walt Harris, isn’t geared to play that style. He’s asking linemen, the theory goes, used to doing nothing but pass protecting to open up holes for his runners.

That is nonsense.

At least he didn’t say “complete and utter nonsense.” So this is going to be one of his pieces where he challenges assumptions. What does he have?

Under Harris last season, Pitt ran the ball 52 percent of the time.

Under Wannstedt this season, Pitt is running the ball 50 percent of the time.

That’s right, Wannstedt is passing more than Harris.

Hmmm. Technically he is correct. According to the final 2004 stats, Pitt had 448 rushing plays out of 862. So far in 2005 in 5 games, Pitt has 176 rushing plays out of 348. Maybe we should look a little closer at the individual numbers for 2004:

RUSHING         GP  Att Gain Loss  Net   Avg  TD Long Avg/G

-----------------------------------------------------------

KIRKLEY,Raymond 10  154  595   35  560   3.6   6   36  56.0

MURPHY,Tim       8   88  349   15  334   3.8   1   37  41.8

PALKO,Tyler     12  129  469  330  139   1.1   3   43  11.6
FURMAN,Marcus   11   37  136   20  116   3.1   0   16  10.5

MASON,Brandon    5   17   52   12   40   2.4   0   12   8.0

GRAESSLE,Adam   12    1    7    0    7   7.0   0    7   0.6

CAMPBELL,Kellen  9    3    6    0    6   2.0   0    4   0.7

PHILLIPS,Mike   12    1    5    0    5   5.0   0    5   0.4

FLACCO,Joe       3    6   14   14    0   0.0   0    6   0.0

DELSARDO,Joe    12    1    0    0    0   0.0   0    0   0.0

ACIERNO,Justin  10    1    0    0    0   0.0   0    0   0.0

STRONG,Darrell  12    1    0    2   -2  -2.0   0    0  -0.2

McKILLOP,Chris  11    1    0    2   -2  -2.0   0    0  -0.2

McCRAY,Darren   11    2    0    5   -5  -2.5   0    0  -0.5

TEAM             9    6    0   25  -25  -4.2   0    0  -2.8

Total.......... 12  448 1633  460 1173   2.6  10   43  97.8

and 2005:

RUSHING              GP  Att Gain Loss  Net   Avg  TD Long Avg/G

----------------------------------------------------------------

KIRKLEY,Raymond       5   54  284   16  268   5.0   1   55  53.6

STEPHENS-HOWLING      4   30  163    5  158   5.3   0   30  39.5

MURPHY,Tim            5   20   96    4   92   4.6   1   43  18.4

JENNINGS,Rashad       2   20   73    3   70   3.5   0   10  35.0

PETTIFORD,John        1    7   51    0   51   7.3   0   26  51.0

FURMAN,Marcus         3    2    9    0    9   4.5   0    7   3.0

CAMPBELL,Kellen       5    2    8    0    8   4.0   0    5   1.6

TEAM-Pittsburgh       3    2    0    4   -4  -2.0   0    0  -1.3

PALKO,Tyler           5   39   84  161  -77  -2.0   1   10 -15.4
Total..........       5  176  768  193  575   3.3   3   55 115.0

As you can see, both also include Tyler Palko’s runs — which include sacks. Palko was sacked 40 times last year and 19 times so far in 2005, so let’s take those numbers out of the totals and add them to passing attempts. I’m going to make an assumption here based on the type of QB Palko is, that on about 2/3 of the remaining running plays from Palko in each season, he had dropped back to pass but was forced to scramble for zero or some positive yardage. I’m adding those to the passing attempts as well. The remaining numbers, I’ll keep in the rushing attempts. So, rather than go by passing attempts, I’ll go by what I’m calling passing plays versus running plays.

Passing plays (pp) = pass attempts + sacks + 2/3 of remaining QB rushes
Running plays (rp) = rush attempts – sacks – 2/3 of remaining QB rushes

Year —– total plays = passing plays + rushing plays
2004: 862 total plays = (414 + 40 + 59) + (448 – 40 – 59) [862 tp = 513 pp + 349 rp]
2005: 348 total plays = (172 + 19 + 13) + (176 – 19 – 13) [348 tp = 204 pp + 144 rp]

Interesting. Based on this in 2004 Pitt called pass plays 59.5% of the time and intentionally ran 40.5%. In 2005, Pitt is on pace to call for the pass 58.6% and run 41.4%. That is a very small difference between years. Admittedly, the sample size is very different for 2005. Maybe Smizik has a point?

Of course, statistics can be misleading, and Pitt’s passing numbers this season are a bit skewed because it got so far behind Rutgers last week and did almost nothing but pass in the second half.

Good point, maybe the numbers from Rutgers shouldn’t be counted. Here are the Rutgers numbers. Palko was credited with 10 rushes, 5 of which were sacks:

RU game: 84 tp = (59 + 5 + 3) + (25 – 5 – 3) [84 tp = 67 pp + 17 rp]

A whopping 79.8% of the plays were passing plays. How does that change things?

2005 (less RU game): 264 tp = 137 pp + 127 rp

Suddenly Pitt is a lot more balanced looking with only 51.3% of the tp being pp.

And I’m not saying, balance is a bad thing. I’m just saying that Smizik’s numbers don’t work — either deliberately or because of ignorance.

But that’s not the point.

“That’s not the point?” He throws out misleading numbers, implying that the offensive styles are the same, but that isn’t the point?

The point is this: Wannstedt has made no major offensive change at Pitt.

Harris ran a variation of the West Coast offense. Wannstedt runs a variation of the West Coast offense. The Harris offense and the Wannstedt offense might not be brothers, but they’re cousins.

Again, huh? Yes, the West Coast offense is a ball control offense — and Harris to be sure did not run the traditional version. But just because Coach Wannstedt runs a ball control offense, does not make it a WCO. Harris was pass first, he may have wanted to run more (and more effectively) but he was definitely of the tradition of pass to set up the run.

Coach Wannstedt is a run-first, power-running perspective. He may want balance, but the run is the more important thing to him. Don’t even pretend that they are similar offenses, philosophies or that the systems haven’t changed much.

In fact, Smizik offers no other proof of his assertion of “no major offensive changes.” In fact, he then goes into cataloging the problems Pitt has had on offense, and trying to allocate blame to players and coaches.

Or at least a nagging cold.

Pitt needs a win tomorrow. It’s personal. A loss and my wife, a Cinci alum, will have bragging rights in the house. Even worse, like most Cinci alum all she cares about is the b-ball team, so she would more likely feel bad for me. I just, I just can’t have that.

So, on the injury front, a couple good returns. Rashad Jennings will be back in the line-up.

“All he has to do is get the ball one time, and he’ll reintroduce himself to people with the way he runs,” Panthers running backs coach David Walker said.

“It’s good to see him back there. He adds something to the mix, and we need everything we can get right now. We don’t have much room for error Saturday and for the remainder of the season. We need a lot of guys to start of contribute a little bit more.”
…
During spring drills, Jennings was impressive with his size (6-foot-1, 240 pounds) and ability to slip between the tackles. He won the starting job in preseason camp, and had 20 carries for 70 yards in two games before going down with the injury.

“He’s a guy who’s going to wear down defenses,” Walker said. “How many people are going to be excited to tackle 240 (pounds) every time? He’s a smart kid, a good pass protector. And when he gets his shoulders squared, he’s a man when he has the ball in his hands.”

Kirkley is still expected to start the game. LaRod Stephens-Howling, while technically questionable, would appear closer to doubtful for the game based on the story

Josh Cummings is recovered from his surgery and will resume kicking duties this weekend on the field.

A day or two after Coach Wannstedt said he wouldn’t blow Freshman Conredge Collins’ redshirt, he is reversing fields.

After thinking about it and talking with Collins and his parents, Wannstedt said he will most likely get Collins ready for the Panthers home game Oct. 15 against South Florida and have him in the lineup the rest of the season.

“It is very doubtful that Kellen Campbell will be back this year,” Wannstedt said. “We’re looking at this as an opportunity to get a young guy in and get him some experience. He is a guy who is a possible starter next year and we’d like it not to be that the first time he is lining up, it is opening day vs. Virginia next year.”

There had been some question about whether Collins, who was one of the Panthers top recruits this year, would be a fullback or a halfback. Wannstedt said that Collins is a fullback but that doesn’t mean he won’t run the ball his fair share.

“He’s definitely a fullback and I think the guy has special talent to be really special at fullback,” Wannstedt said.

“He could be a four-year starter for us. And with his talent, we’ll get him the ball. This year, we have, [Starting fullback] Tim Murphy, and when we go to one-back sets, Murphy will carry the ball. So, as coaches we can and will make it work. He just wants to get his hands on the ball and we’ll make sure that happens.”

During preseason, Collins said he didn’t expect to redshirt. He probably won’t play tomorrow, since the decision to burn the redshirt was made so late in the week. Any chance of counting half of a redshirt?

I’m undecided about the “reading between the lines” meaning. Is it part of a conscious decision by the coaches to start playing the new kids more and get them ready for next year? Is it desperation to just get some wins? Were Collins and his parents getting loud about giving him a chance this year — threatening transfer or such? All? None?

Looking at the Big East stats, Pitt is ahead of Cinci in all but a handful of places. The only key stats where they are ahead of Pitt — Rushing Offense, Rushing Defense, Red-Zone Offense (perfect but only 9 times in the Red-Zone while Pitt is 12-17), Red-Zone Defense, and Time of Possession.

Cinci will also have issues at QB. The starter Dustin Grutza has been lousy in the last few games and Cinci Coach Dantonio has decided that if he stays lousy he will get yanked quickly.

“As we move through the game, we’ll make decisions,” UC head coach Mark Dantonio said following Thursday’s practice at Nippert Stadium.

Asked if that meant it would behoove the redshirt freshman to get off to a good start against the Panthers, Dantonio replied, “I guess it would. We’ll make that decision based not just on his performance, but there are other things that go into it.”

The back up is a JUCO Nick Davila would take over. Whether that would just further confuse a very young Cinci team or provide a spark probably depends on whether Pitt can make things difficult.

Cinci’s leader in all-purpose yards, Mike Daniels is doubtful with a sprained ankle. He handles punt returns, shares in kick return duties and sees limited action at RB (4-5 carries).