I’ve stated on many occasions I don’t gamble, despite my interest in betting lines. Pitt is getting a point in the game tomorrow against Rutgers. The thing that caught me off guard is the over/under is 48 to 48.5. Apparently others betting folk are curious about that.

“Oddsmakers most likely believe that the public will look at the history here, and overlook the fact that Pittsburgh stinks,” says Covers Expert Shawn Torrey. “Trend players will eat this stuff up, and don’t forget that very few people like to bet unders.

“Even with the last two meetings between these clubs sailing over the total, it is hard to figure where this number comes from.”

Of course, Covers, um seems to be hedging on the whole thing.

The Scarlet Knights haven’t covered a spread this season, largely because their defense has a minor problem: they can’t tackle.

“It’s just bad habits that return,” sophomore safety Ron Girault said. “You’re taught from when you’re little to tackle with your head, but the natural reaction is to turn away at the last minute. We also need be in better position and wrap up the runner.”

Wait a minute. They’re having trouble tackling? That’s like a hockey team admitting they’re having trouble skating.

A game against Illinois in the season opener was the only serious competition Rutgers has seen so far. Defenders flailed and floundered against shifty ball carriers in the open field, allowing Illinois to run for more than 200 yards in a close loss. Even though opponents have only scored 14 points a game, the Knights defense is ranked 82nd among Division I teams because of the 410 yards they’ve allowed on average.

So it seems the door is open for Pitt to put their ugly start behind them and build on the 41-0 whooping they put on Youngstown State last weekend.

“Rutgers defense is just what they need to get healthy on offense,” says Covers Expert Tony George. “With the current line, it is a slight advantage to take the team that has more speed and depth, and who has played on the road against stiff opponents.”

Ultimately, they give a slight edge to Pitt.

Here’s the AP story on the continuing Wannstedt-Schiano are friends storyline.

Pat Forde at ESPN.com puts Coach Wannstedt at the bottom of the rankings for new coaches thus far.

13. Dave Wannstedt (36): The good news for Miles, Harris, Orgeron and every other coach off to a rocky start: at least they’re not as bad off as Wanny. Maybe beating up on I-AA Youngstown State and heading into a weak Big East will purge Pitt’s pathetic 0-3 start. If not, some productive early recruiting will be the only positive for Wannstedt to cling to heading into 2006.

Anyone with a counter argument?

Courtesy of Big East Basketball Blog, this article that includes a list of what each BE team spent from their athletics department in 2004.

Total athletic expenses for Big East programs from the 2004 season, the last for which complete data is available. Figures are dollars reported spent on athletics on the Equity in Athletics Disclosure Act forms, which universities are required to file annually with the U.S. Department of Education. Athletic revenue for each school might be lower or higher than the amount spent.

1. Notre Dame	$43,119,402
2. Connecticut	$36,337,819
3. Louisville	$35,170,247
4. West Virginia	$34,454,851
5. Syracuse	$34,307,017
6. Pittsburgh	$31,769,592
7. Rutgers	$31,940,493
8. St. John’s	$24,072,910
9. Cincinnati	$22,908,842
10. South Florida	$18,566,177
11. Georgetown	$17,705,058
12. Villanova	$17,007,533
13. Seton Hall	$15,260,330
14. Marquette	$15,157,774
15. Providence	$14,010,397
16. DePaul	$13,497,690.

Final nugget that I present strictly for informational purposes. Courtesy of John Cole, blogger and WVU Communications Prof. West Virginia ranks #1 in the number of strip clubs versus population. It helps that the population of WV is only around 1.81 million. The article says nothing about overall quality. That is unless you go for meth whores.

Just because Pitt beat a Division 1-AA team this past weekend, doesn’t mean the national media isn’t still taking whacks at Pitt. Bruce Feldman on his ESPN.com blog (Insider Subs.) lists his ten biggest surprises so far, both up and down.

6-Pitt (Down): I was surprised when the Panthers got blasted at home by Notre Dame. I was stunned when they got beat by Ohio in the follow-up. (Girlfriend: You’re still watching that game? C’mon, does anyone really care about the outcome of that one? Me: Only one fool who thought Pitt was a top-15 program, and sadly, you’re dating him.) If they lose to Rutgers, I think you’ll start seeing Wannymustgo.com or at least Nomorestache.com spring up.

Stewart Mandel at SI.com wonders what happened to a bunch of players who ended last year as studs and this year to date have been duds.

Pittsburgh QB Tyler Palko: One year, you’re walking into Notre Dame Stadium, leading your team to a dramatic last-second victory and cursing on national television, the next you’re walking into Ohio’s Peden Stadium, throwing two interceptions that turn into touchdowns and getting cursed by your own fans. Man, can this sport turn on you in a hurry.

What fans are cursing him? Despite Palko’s problems so far this season, he’s been treated very fairly by the fans. But then, that would ruin the cursing parallel Mandel was shoehorning in there.

The Wannstedt-Schiano friendship/mentor-pupil meme continues apace. This article chronicles how they got to know each other.

They stumbled upon each other through a mutual friend nearly a decade ago. Wannstedt, head coach of the Chicago Bears at the time, had never met this 29-year-old hotshot assistant coach from Penn State. He needed to fill a defensive assistant vacancy. Nothing too complicated. Just looking for someone who could blend in with the rest of the staff and teach the players without causing a stir.

Bears defensive coordinator Bob Slowik knew that Schiano, a young defensive backfield coach for the Nittany Lions for five years, would be an ideal fit.

“Bring him in,” Wannstedt told Slowik. “Let’s talk to the kid.”

The meeting wasn’t exactly filled with fireworks.

“I remember going on the interview,” Schiano said. “Dave is such a low-key guy. They put a premium on the people that they know and people they can trust. The biggest part was to see if I could get along with the staff and add to the staff chemistry. Dave’s as good a guy to work for as there is. He’s demanding, but he’s fair and honest. I learned a lot from being around him.”

Maybe it’s just a different management style, but that bothers me. I’d like to think the premium is on ideas and ways to make the players better (and in college, add recruit like a fiend). The main criteria seems to be: gets along well with others. I am now deeply concerned about that regarding Pitt’s assistant coaches. Maybe I’m worrying over nothing.

The relationship is also part of the Big East Notebook on ESPN.com (Insider subs.).

Schiano owes a lot to Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt, who hired Schiano when Wannstedt was coaching the Chicago Bears and then recommended him to Butch Davis to become the defensive coordinator at the University of Miami.

“He’s been a real mentor to me,” Schiano said. “He gave me an opportunity to get in the NFL. I learned a lot of football, about handling players. I think that’s one of Dave’s strengths. Butch and he are good friends, and I didn’t know Butch at all. That certainly was a big help for me.”

Schiano worked with nickel backs when he joined the Bears, then was elevated to secondary coach. Wannstedt saw an eager young coach, which is why he recommended Schiano to Davis.

“He was outstanding — a great communicator, very smart,” Wannstedt said.

The notebook also suggests that Schiano could be on the hotseat if he can’t beat a vulnerable Pitt team at home. Otherwise, it just rehashes stuff already covered in the last couple days: injuries for Pitt; Rutgers working on fundamentals; Blades speaking well of Leonard; Pitt not losing any commits; Wannstedt accidentally naming recruits, etc.

Nervous about the Rutgers game? I am. It doesn’t matter that Pitt is 19-3 against them and has won the last 6.

I was starting to feel good about it. Thinking about how Pitt could exploit the Rutgers defense and shut down their offense. Now, I’m starting to worry that it will be another ugly Nebraska affair. It was reading the stories today.

The Scarlet Knights are susceptible to giving up yards because they bring a lot of pressure and play man coverage on the outside receivers. When they don’t get to the quarterback, the opponent has an opportunity for a big play by exploited a one-on-one matchup.

Quarterback Tyler Palko said the Panthers have success against Rutgers because they been able to pick up the blitzes and make big plays in the passing game.

However, that was in a system under Walt Harris that emphasized the passing game and utilized different blocking schemes with maximum protection. This year’s offense has more emphasis on shorter passes and a power running game.
…
Palko said the Panthers have used the Scarlet Knights’ aggressiveness against them in the past and expects a similar approach tomorrow. But don’t expect the Panthers will revert back to the pass-happy outfit they were for the past eight seasons.

“We have to stay balanced,” Palko said. “That’s a pretty boring answer, but you have to be able to mix it up, especially with teams that like to pressure so much. We were able to hit some big plays and score on them when they are in man coverage, but the downside to facing man coverage is, when they get to the quarterback they can force bad decisions, and that usually means the turnovers come and the points go the other way.”

In other words, Rutgers defense actually plays the correct style to beat Pitt’s offense. The O-line which hasn’t really shown any ability to pick up the blitz or slow down a D-line will be under continual pressure to protect Palko once more.

I’d like to type that it is just gamesmanship by Pitt coaches, to keep talking about being balanced on offense, and they are actually planning to exploit the Rutgers defense by stretching the field and provide Palko with some max protection. I don’t believe that however. I think they are being honest.

“We’ve got to be very, very balanced in what we do offensively to have a chance to move the ball,” Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said. “We’ve got to be efficient in the red zone and we’ve got to be efficient on third down. That’s going to be the difference in this game.”
…
“It’s important to get the running game on track,” Cavanaugh said. “We’re not good enough to be one-dimensional.”

The thing is, the running game is a little thin this week.

Tailback LaRod Stephens-Howling (ankle) missed his third consecutive practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt said he will be a game-time decision, but generally players who haven’t practiced during the week have been held out. … Marcus Furman (ankle) is out and Brandon Mason (ankle) is doubtful. Rashad Jennings (shoulder), though, has practiced the past two days and is probable. Tim Murphy (shoulder) returned to practice as well and could share time at tailback with Ray Kirkley and Jennings and at fullback with Kellen Campbell.

Losing Stephens-Howling really hurts not just because of his production, but the whole change of pace he brings to the running game.

This is where I find real fault with Coaches Wannstedt and Cavanaugh and their offensive strategy. It’s the same thing we faulted Walt Harris. A stubbornness about doing things one way, and not taking full advantage of what the defense gives and their weaknesses. So wedded to the “system” and not making adjustments.

Rutgers with the upfront pressure is designed to help the weak secondary. There’s a reason their #1 and #3 leading tacklers are safeties. They are playing them closer to or in the box. Well, also poor tackling. Something Rutgers has claimed to be working on during their bye week.

Last year, when Pitt crushed Rutgers for Homecoming, Pitt was able to jump out quickly thanks to 4 picks thrown by Rutgers and picking apart their pass defense. This year, Rutgers has only one interception and one fumble in 3 games.

H.B. Blades — and his family — gets a puff piece as Rutgers Coach Schiano recalls his time in Miami.