[Originally posted to College Basketball Blog.]
I did pretty well last year, in what to expect in the Big East Tournament (except for the outcome), so I’ll try again.
As tough as the Big East has been this year, there is not one team I see that plays on Wednesday that appears capable of making a deep run in the BET. The first round games should all be very good. Every game has deep meaning as WVU, Georgetown and ND are all playing to get in to the NCAA Tournament. Each team is a varying degree of close to making it. All need the win to get in. A loss means they have to wait for other conference tournaments to see if other bubble teams win or lose.
First Round, Wednesday
#8 WVU – #9 Providence, Noon. WVU won twice against Providence by a total of 6 points. Providence has been the hard-luck team all season. It only had 2 real blow out losses — to Pitt and Syracuse. They were 4-3 in their last 7 games including a win over Georgetown, a 1 point loss to ND and a double-OT loss to UConn. WVU was seemingly rolling into March after a 6-2 February. Then, with the chance to ice their NCAA Tourney bid against a severely undermanned Seton Hall team (suspensions and injuries) they gakked. Must win for WVU, but 3rd time is a charm for the Friars. Gomes takes out his frustrations of the season and not winning BE PoY on the Mountaineers. Providence with the minor upset wins, and WVU goes to the NIT.
#7 Georgetown – #10 Seton Hall, 7pm. Riding a 5 game losing streak. A bit deceptive, though, since they lost at ND and UConn and to Villanova. The losses to St. John’s and Providence are less easily explained. They needed to win one of those. Seton Hall gets a semi-home game, but I like Georgetown to win this one. Figure Jeff Green has something more to show with Gay getting Rookie of the Year (I’m betting) over him.
#6 ND – #11 Rutgers, 9 pm. Another semi-home game for the lower seed. The worst team in the Big East against the softest. ND needs this win. These 2 teams played last Wednesday with ND finally pulling away at the end. RU’s last conference win was a month ago. How bad is this RU team? They lost at home to Penn State. ND has far superior talent, and a loss definitely knocks them off the bubble — Rutgers’ RPI is 175. Can you imagine what a loss would do to ND’s RPI? ND wins this game.
Quarterfinals, Thursday
Providence – BC, Noon. Providence has battled well against BC. You give the advantage to BC, but this smells like an upset game. One team always makes at least a little run in the BET. Providence is the only team and match-up that seems likely to pull the second round upset. I’m hedging, though, because I don’t know how much of that is me talking myself into it with some anti-BC bias. Right now I have to pick BC, but I could flip-flop on this.
Pitt – Villanova, 2pm. I’m going with Pitt (big shock). I just think Pitt, in the game against BC, really showed some new wrinkles in dealing with a forward that can go inside and out. I think Taft and Troutman will be able to really be too much inside for Sheridan, Sumpter and Fraser. Of course if ‘Nova’s perimeter shooting gets hot, or Pitt’s perimeter defense sags — rather than step out on them, then Pitt will be in trouble.
Georgetown – UConn, 7pm. UConn will just overpower them. Shouldn’t be close.
ND – Syracuse, 9 pm. Syracuse has won 2 from ND already this season. The only way ND wins is if Falls, Quinn and Thomas go at least 50% from 3-point land. Warrick inside will be too much. ND has no will to play in the paint.
Semifinals, Friday
Pitt – BC, 7pm. It will not be the same game as last Monday. The ultimate outcome, though, will. Pitt is BC’s worst match-up. Pitt can match BC’s toughness, offense and defense inside. On the perimeter, Pitt has better guards who shoot the 3 better and can penetrate. BC is disturbingly too much like Pitt last year. Pitt wins a brutal game.
UConn – Syracuse, 9pm. UConn is the hot team right now. Syracuse hasn’t beaten the tough inside teams all season — Pitt, BC, UConn and Oklahoma St. ESPN can’t ask for a better game at this time slot. Both teams should have the Garden just about evenly divided. UConn just outmuscles Syracuse.
Championship, Saturday, 8 pm
Pitt – UConn. How could it not. Fourth time in four years. UConn will have the home court advantage, but the teams each won on the other’s court. An absolute dogfight. Talent clearly favors UConn. Toughness and experience to Pitt. Taft and Ramon will be Pitt’s X-factor. Big games from both will be needed (you know Troutman and Krauser will do their thing). For UConn it will be how Rudy Gay and point guard Marcus Williams react to the situation. Useless factoid that favors Pitt, in the previous 6 games the teams are 3-3 exchanging wins and losses — Pitt lost the last time they played. I’m following my heart and saying Pitt wins the Big East Tournament.
