So, the question of POY got tossed out there and I started thinking about it. Like the MVP in baseball, there is no real criteria. It isn’t just stats, and it tends to favor players on winning teams. This year in the BE is all about the power forwards. They dominated in the league this year. This is my short list of the 6 best candidates:

Ryan Gomes, Providence
Hakim Warrick, Syracuse
Craig Smith, Boston College
Jared Dudley, Boston College
Chevon Troutman, Pitt
Curtis Sumpter, Villanova

I’ll spare everyone the suspense and just say that I think the award will go to Hakim Warrick. If you want to know why, then you have to wade through the rest.

While it isn’t a rule, the performance in conference games probably gets weighted higher than in the overall numbers (as of March 1). At least, that is my theory. That is when the coaches see the other players, the games are more important, have a higher profile and get more TV airtime.

If the award was given out on overall statistics alone, Gomes would win hands down. He’s the leading scorer in the BE, 3rd in rebounds and is the only one of the group to rank in the top-15 in both assists (11th – 3.56/gm) and steals (14th – 1.54/gm). He is also one of the better 3-point and free throw shooters in the league. The problem for Gomes is that he is on a vastly underachieving team that has only 3 conference wins. He — fairly or not — is perceived as a guy who gets his numbers because he is the only good player on the team and has to do everything. That he will get the numbers but not the wins. That he is soft. Still, his numbers are so good, that he gets into the discussion.

But this award is about more than numbers. In the 2001-02 season, Caron Butler was the best player but ended up being co-POY with Pitt’s Brandon Knight. Knight earned it not for his stats, which were good but not eye-popping, but because he was the leader of a Pitt team picked to finish 6th in their division (out of 7) that won their division. Pitt so far exceeded expectations and Knight’s floor leadership was recognized, especially as the coaches were not yet aware of the importance of Page and Brown.

UConn doesn’t have a candidate this year, because Charlie Villanueva was offensively unproductive in the first half of the season. He came on very strong in conference play, but for POY it was too late. Josh Boone, also of UConn, faded as Villanueva ascended so he took himself out of consideration. The shear amount of talent on the UConn team is also why their point guard, Marcus Williams won’t be considered.

Troutman will get a lot of second and third place votes, but won’t win. His stats are just not quite good enough, and the late season slide by the team really cost him. I think he stood a good shot before Pitt lost 3 in a row. He has earned the grudging respect and admiration from all the coaches in the league. He is considered one of the most complete players in the BE.

In my view, Sumpter should get some strong consideration, but probably won’t. He has helped Villanova finally start living up to the potential on the team. He has played big in wins over Kansas, Pitt and BC. His numbers are most comparable (as is his game) to Jared Dudley of BC. What costs him, though, is that he is not a great defender and he has been very anonymous for most of the year.

Before the Pitt game, Jared Dudley was considered to be ahead of his teammate, Craig Smith for consideration for POY. His performance on national TV didn’t just cost him in terms of a loss and dropping him from 5th in scoring (16.5) to 7th (16.0). It cost him in perception. He came up small for everyone to see. If this game happened 2 weeks ago, Dudley would be the top candidate, because there was time to recover. Dudley is a great defender, 10th in steals, averages better than 3 assists in a game, and has the best assist to turnover ratio in the Big East for a non-point guard. Unfair or not, a bad game late has a lingering affect. Especially when his teammate, Craig Smith played so tough.

Smith has very good numbers. He is second in rebounds (8.4) and fourth in scoring (18.0). He plays a great defense, and benefits from the halo effect of how far BC exceeded preseason expectations. Two things work against Smith. His teammate, Dudley is also a candidate. That means there is a good chance of vote splitting that hurts him.

The other factor is that he is on BC. With BC leaving the BE that will cost him. Maybe not consciously, but I think several of the coaches will knock him down a point or two. Believe me, Al Skinner is going to win and deserves the Coach of the Year award, but if G-town hadn’t faded in February, it would have gone to John Thompson III.

This brings it to Hakim Warrick. Warrick has had a great season and has great numbers for one of the top teams. Second in scoring (21.1) and fourth in rebounds (8.3). Warrick has been named BE Player of the Week 5 times this season (PDF, page5). No one else has more than 2. Warrick has also had 12 double-doubles this season. He is the team leader on Syracuse.

It would be completely deserving.I just don’t see how he doesn’t end up winning it. About the only blight, is that he came up small in two late, back-to-back losses to Pitt and BC.