The ND-Pitt game is noon on ESPN, the crew is Dan Shulman and Len Elmore. Game Notes for Pitt (PDF) and ND (skip ND’s PDF game notes, it’s just one page and useless). Nothing too interesting in either.
Aside from their similar BE records, these teams seem similar in other ways.
Defensively, ND is ranked 7th in the country at allowing 60.3 points/game. Pitt is #32 at 61.7. Not even a point-and-a-half difference. On field goal % defense, Pitt is #45 at 40.6% and ND is 60th with 41.1%. 0.5% difference.
Assists and Steals are 2 other categories, where they aren’t too different. Pitt averages 15.9 assists/game (57th) and ND is 1.5 behind at 14.4 (124). In steals, ND has a 0.4 steals/game edge, 7.1 (183) to 6.7 (213).
College basketball stat guru, Kevin Pomeroy’s “Basketball Shrink,” shows that Notre Dame compares closest with teams like South Carolina and DePaul. Pitt has beaten South Carolina. In Pomeroy’s stats, Pitt and ND aren’t that far apart. Both teams prefer to control the pace and use the half court offense. Pitt is far more efficient on offense but ND has the edge on defensive efficiency.
In Big East games, ND has played 10 and Pitt 9, their defenses have allowed about the same number of points per game. ND has allowed 64.9 points/game and Pitt 65.1. Pitt holds an edge on offense as it has scored 70 points/game to ND’s 65.9/game.
Back to overall stats, Pitt has a much better field goal %, which is to be expected since ND takes many more 3s in a game than Pitt. Pitt shoots at 48.6% (23) while ND is down at 40.8% (279). Notre Dame, though, averages 8.3 threes in a game (24) while Pitt may average 6.6 (142). That number for Pitt is deceiving. In Big East play, Pitt has averaged 5.5 3s/game.
A key area of concern for Pitt should be free throw shooting. We know Pitt is at best unpredictable on free throw shooting. Maybe 45% (Bucknell), or perhaps almost 88% (Providence). Most likely, though, right around the season average of 66.3%. Notre Dame is 60th in the nation (2nd in the BE) at 72.3%. For this to be a wash, Pitt will have to get to the line far more than ND. Problem is ND doesn’t commit a lot of fouls. They only commit 14.5 fouls/game (6th in the country). This suggests even more evidence that Pitt needs to get it inside a lot. Pitt can get the position and force the issue, with ND’s big men who seem to shy away from too much contact.
As far as Turnovers, ND doesn’t. They are 9th in the country averaging only 11.7/game. Pitt averages 14.3 (120).
This should be a complete dogfight of a game.
