From the major sports sites regarding this Saturday’s game. I’m happy to say that Seth Davis at SI.com is once more picking against Pitt. He is 0-2 so far on Saturday Pitt games, so let’s hope the streak continues.

Yes, the Irish handed BC its first loss of the season, but it would be much more impressive if they can pull out this one on the road. Chris Thomas played his best game of the season by far — and maybe the past three seasons — against the Eagles, dishing out nine assists without a turnover while scoring 19 efficient points. We’re used to thinking of Pitt as a stout defensive team, but this group is actually better on offense. (The Panthers lead the Big East in 3-point percentage.) The problem for Pitt is you never know which Chris Taft is going to show up. I also thought they had found another perimeter scorer to complement Carl Krauser when freshman Ronald Ramon scored 21 in the win at Rutgers on Jan. 8. But Ramon hasn’t scored in double figures since, which underscores why, even playing at home, Pitt is vulnerable against a good team that’s just hitting its stride.
Seth’s Pick: Notre Dame 77, Pittsburgh 72

Greg Doyel doesn’t make a pick in the game, but sees it coming down like this.

The Panthers (16-4, 6-3) are no longer invincible at home, as Bucknell and Georgetown proved earlier this season. The Irish (14-6, 6-4) are playing awesome of late, sandwiching wins against Connecticut and Boston College around a loss at Syracuse — a game Notre Dame probably should have won. With third or fourth place in the Big East at stake, this game will come down to what games involving these two teams always come down to: inconsistent point guards Carl Krauser and Chris Thomas.

Personally, I’m with Troutman. I’ll take Krauser (also it notes that Aaron Gray has been ill this week as well). Right now, Pitt is a 5 to 5.5 point favorite.

Hopefully the game will not come down to officiating, because this has not been a great year for BE officials. Syracuse Hoops Blog notes how bad it was in just a few days — and when a Syracuse fan is wondering how the ND can get whistled for the technical during the ND-‘Cuse game you know it’s not a good scene.

The issue of questionable officiating is also a story in a Connecticut paper.

It’s a safe bet the telephone in Art Hyland’s office got quite a workout in the past week or so. Hyland is the coordinator of men’s basketball officiating for the Big East Conference and the impact his officials have had on conference games lately has certainly warranted a heated discussion or two about their competence.

Officials, naturally, always have an impact on the games they work, but good officials do not decide games, they allow the players to do so. But that hasn’t been the case in a number of conference games.
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Criticizing officials is a no-no for coaches and usually draws a reprimand from the league office, but these calls were so blatantly bad and unnecessary, it’s doubtful the coaches heard a harsh word from the Big East administrators.

Well, perhaps Providence coach Tim Welsh will get a little flak after his assessment following the Friars’ 67-65 loss to West Virginia on Wednesday. Providence took just three free throws, all in the first half, courtesy of officials Pat Driscoll, Will Bush, and Joe Lindsay.

I saw the second half of that game. Gomes was being mugged under the boards without any calls.

I try to avoid talking about how games were called because more often than not it comes off like sour grapes. Still, that will be another thing to watch in tomorrow’s game.

The ND-Pitt game is noon on ESPN, the crew is Dan Shulman and Len Elmore. Game Notes for Pitt (PDF) and ND (skip ND’s PDF game notes, it’s just one page and useless). Nothing too interesting in either.

Aside from their similar BE records, these teams seem similar in other ways.

Defensively, ND is ranked 7th in the country at allowing 60.3 points/game. Pitt is #32 at 61.7. Not even a point-and-a-half difference. On field goal % defense, Pitt is #45 at 40.6% and ND is 60th with 41.1%. 0.5% difference.

Assists and Steals are 2 other categories, where they aren’t too different. Pitt averages 15.9 assists/game (57th) and ND is 1.5 behind at 14.4 (124). In steals, ND has a 0.4 steals/game edge, 7.1 (183) to 6.7 (213).

College basketball stat guru, Kevin Pomeroy’s “Basketball Shrink,” shows that Notre Dame compares closest with teams like South Carolina and DePaul. Pitt has beaten South Carolina. In Pomeroy’s stats, Pitt and ND aren’t that far apart. Both teams prefer to control the pace and use the half court offense. Pitt is far more efficient on offense but ND has the edge on defensive efficiency.

In Big East games, ND has played 10 and Pitt 9, their defenses have allowed about the same number of points per game. ND has allowed 64.9 points/game and Pitt 65.1. Pitt holds an edge on offense as it has scored 70 points/game to ND’s 65.9/game.

Back to overall stats, Pitt has a much better field goal %, which is to be expected since ND takes many more 3s in a game than Pitt. Pitt shoots at 48.6% (23) while ND is down at 40.8% (279). Notre Dame, though, averages 8.3 threes in a game (24) while Pitt may average 6.6 (142). That number for Pitt is deceiving. In Big East play, Pitt has averaged 5.5 3s/game.

A key area of concern for Pitt should be free throw shooting. We know Pitt is at best unpredictable on free throw shooting. Maybe 45% (Bucknell), or perhaps almost 88% (Providence). Most likely, though, right around the season average of 66.3%. Notre Dame is 60th in the nation (2nd in the BE) at 72.3%. For this to be a wash, Pitt will have to get to the line far more than ND. Problem is ND doesn’t commit a lot of fouls. They only commit 14.5 fouls/game (6th in the country). This suggests even more evidence that Pitt needs to get it inside a lot. Pitt can get the position and force the issue, with ND’s big men who seem to shy away from too much contact.

As far as Turnovers, ND doesn’t. They are 9th in the country averaging only 11.7/game. Pitt averages 14.3 (120).

This should be a complete dogfight of a game.

Will it be the Pitt and ND teams that both lost to Georgetown at home? Maybe the Pitt team that beat UConn in Storrs and Syracuse at home? Perhaps the ND team coming off a win over unbeaten BC and that has also beaten UConn? That’s just it, we don’t know.

What we do know: it looks like a flu bug going around the Pitt team. Several articles mention different players as being ill in the end notes.

ND ended up with a more difficult schedule in the Big Eastt by virtue of their other 2 pair of home-away conference games. ND will face Villanova and Georgetown in home-away conference games in addition to Pitt, UConn and Syracuse. Pitt has WVU and St. John’s. ND actually needs that, considering their non-con strength of schedule was actually weaker than Pitt’s.

Something for Pitt to worry about: ND is the best shooting 3-point team in the Big East. Unlike WVU that hoists anywhere, anytime, ND can actually make their shots. They have 3 guys that can shoot well from outside: Colin Falls, Chris Quinn and Chris Thomas. Thomas can also drive to the basket. Pitt has been consistently bad against teams with more than one outside scoring threat. It also means that there will be longer rebounds from misses. Pitt, especially the guards, will have to get in better position to try and snatch them. Unfortunately, aside from Krauser, the other guards tend to stand around waiting for the inside guys to come out for them. This allows the opposing team’s guards to charge in to the ball. And it is always easier to come in to a ball than go out.

If Pitt is really lucky, then ND will have a hideous outside shooting game, like they did against UConn. UConn was unprepared to bang inside, despite the skilled players they possess in the paint, and it was how ND won. Pitt’s inside guys want to bang and don’t shy away. Teams that have tried to match physical play inside against Pitt have failed.

Pitt will need Ramon on the court because Graves has not been any good on perimeter defense. Ramon, though, is still bothered by his sore shoulder. (The article notes that DeGroat missed practice with the flu.)

Pitt has to work on a couple things that were lacking in their last two games. Finishing teams and limiting turnovers. Pitt had chances to put away WVU and St. John’s but couldn’t finish. It caught up with them in Morgantown. The turnovers were astronomical against St. John’s, limiting Pitt’s opportunities. Even against WVU, Pitt had 12 turnovers, and just didn’t take care of the ball. (Carl Krauser is mentioned as being sick during the week.)

The weekly Q&A with Ray Fittipaldo, the P-G Pitt basketball beat reporter. Lots of frustration being conveyed through the questions.

Q: Why can’t this team stay mentally focused for all games? Pitt is 16-4 with losses to Bucknell, St. John’s and now West Virginia. This is not the way to gain national recognition. I know how we’ll hear that West Virginia is our biggest rival. I don’t buy it. Pitt got lucky in the first half when WVU was 2 for 17 from 3-point range. Same shots in the second half, different results. This team is very disturbing. With all the hullabaloo about the improved shooting, the defense just is not there. Dixon needs to kick some butt. Pitt probably will be an NCAA because of its reputation, but at this point, Pitt should be a bubble team.

FITTIPALDO: I’m sure it’s very disconcerting for Dixon that his team underestimates less-talented opponents. Good teams never do that. Pitt is not on the bubble at this point. The Panthers are ranked No. 18 and are OK in the RPI. But they can become a bubble team in the coming weeks if they don’t stand up to what is a very difficult final seven games. Pitt must play Notre Dame, Syracuse (away), Villanova (away), West Virginia, Connecticut, Boston College (away) and Notre Dame (away). If Pitt is 9-7 or 8-8 in conference play after that stretch, then we’d be talking about the bubble. If they’re 10-6, they’d be OK because they’d be 20-7 overall. Remember, the NCAA tournament selection committee looks at how teams are playing over the final month of the season, and they also take into consideration bad losses. Pitt has three bad losses, so they had better be playing well the final few weeks.
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Q: I think it’s fair to say at this point Pitt plays to the level of its competition. What does that say about this group of players?

FITTIPALDO: I would agree with you, Phil. Pitt has showed that it can play great against ranked teams and horribly against the dregs of the Big East. While I won’t go as far as Jamie Dixon or some of Pitt’s players and say this is a young team, I will offer this excuse: Pitt is young at certain positions and the inexperience has hurt them in some instances. Two of Pitt’s top reserves are freshmen and another is a sophomore. Two starters are playing significant minutes for the first time in their careers. The team that advanced to the Sweet 16 last season had two senior starters (Julius Page and Jaron Brown), a two-year starter at power forward (Chevy Troutman), a sophomore at point guard (Carl Krauser) and a freshman (Chris Taft) at center. Krauser and Taft played above expectations and were big factors in Pitt’s success. The first-year players this season are not the impact players those guys were. Plus, we all know by now how important Page and Brown were to that team. They didn’t put up great statistics, but they made big plays on offense and especially on defense that carried that team to a Big East regular-season championship.

Also a little about why Julius Page left the ABA for a Russian team. Hint: money.

Finally a tongue-planted-firmly-in-cheek piece from Shelly Anderson about Western Pennsylvania myopia.

I’ve been agonizing over this for some time, and finally crossed over. I have put up some donation buttons in the upper corner. If anyone feels like making a contribution, it would be greatly appreciated, but there is no obligation.

All money donated will be used to pay for my season tickets. If, somehow, the amount goes over the football season ticket costs, I promise that the funds will be used only for my expenses relating to going to Pitt football games (mainly booze).