This is the expected line-up for the game tonight, and the players expected to come off the bench:

Pitt ——— Position —– Syracuse
Taft ———— C ———- Forth
Troutman —— F ———- Warrick
McCarroll —— F ———- Pace
Graves ——— G ———- McNamara
Krauser ——– G ———- McCroskey
—————BENCH————————
Ramon ———————- Edelin
Kendall ———————- Roberts
Gray ———————— Watkins
DeGroat ——————— Nichols
Benjamin

As far as minutes per game (in conference, as are all numbers used unless otherwise indicated), McNamara and Warrick rarely come out of the game. They are averaging 39 and 37.6 minutes respectively. Additionally, Josh Pace averages 36.3 minutes per game. Barring foul problems or injury, you can expect to see these 3 most of the game.

Billy Edelin is still not starting, but is up to averaging 18 minutes in a game. The last two games he played 26 and 30 minutes, so he can be expected out there more. Daryl Watkins had been limited because of an injury. He should be playing more minutes this game to spell Forth more. Roberts will go in for Pace and Forth, but could lose some now that Watkins is available. Nichols may be lucky to get in there for 5 minutes.

For Pitt, Krauser plays the most minutes at 36, followed by Taft (32) and Troutman (31.8). If Syracuse comes out hitting a lot of jumpers and Pace is able to get rebounds and score, Graves and McCarroll could see their minutes go down. Ramon is already averaging 31.6 minutes off the bench as either the 3rd guard or for Graves. McCarroll also has to contend with Coach Dixon’s recent realization that Kendall is a pretty good defender. Unless McCarroll comes out with more offense than he has shown, Kendall could be inserted fairly early for this game. Gray will be in for Taft and maybe Troutman at points. DeGroat and Benjamin might get 7 minutes combined for McCarroll. If they are in for more, then Troutman got in foul trouble.

Hakim Warrick should be the first order of business for Pitt. Obviously he is going up against Troutman. That should be a great battle. Two very different players that put up comparable numbers.

————– FG-FGA —– Field FG-FGA — FT-FTA —- Reb/gm — A – TO – Blk – Stls
Warrick (7) — 48-91 (.527) — 46-86 (.535) — 43-69 (.623) — 9.0 —- 11 – 13 — 2 — 6
Troutman (5) – 30-54 (.556) — 28-51 (.549) — 14-19 (.737) — 8.2 —– 2 — 6 — 5 — 5

Warrick puts up about 2 more shots per game than Troutman and gets to the free throw line significantly more often (9.9 versus 3.8). Warrick, though, has struggled at the free throw line in road games. He has gone only 20-39 (.512) in the 4 conference road games. Troutman isn’t great in the two home conference games — 5-8 (.625) — but since he doesn’t take nearly as many FTAs, it isn’t as scary a prospect.

McNamara will be the other major focus for Pitt. If he starts hitting early, expect Ramon to be in there for Graves a lot. Graves isn’t as good as keeping the player in front of him. Ramon has shown good speed and better defense. Krauser will probably try to help out if McNamara is showing touch.

For Syracuse, to take the pressure off of McNamara, Edelin and/or McGroskey will need to score on open looks. Pace, Forth and Roberts are all inside players, who generally look for their shots inside. Forth and Roberts, though, tend to have trouble with Fouls. Forth fouled out in 2 of the last 3 games. Roberts fouled out once in conference against Providence.

For Pitt, they have yet to play a complete game in conference. They have played good halfs, but are prone to prolonged lapses in focus — literally for half of a half. This could be very likely if Pitt is unable to bust Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. Syracuse is a veteran, patient team that will likely do what it did last February against Pitt. Collapse inside on Troutman and Taft. Clogging the passing lanes, and force Pitt to make shots from the outside.

So while the Pitt star players, Krauser, Taft and Troutman will be the one the announcers discuss, and the defense will focus attention. The key could be Ronald Ramon. Ramon is Pitt’s best outside shooter and can shoot off of screens and pulling up. He is not yet able to create his own shot, but unlike, Graves, does not need to be firmly set to get his shot to fall. If Ramon can drop a few early baskets it will force Syracuse to extend out further and creating opportunities for Troutman and Taft. Not to mention giving Krauser room to drive and penetrate.

I expect this game will be close. Free throw shooting may end up deciding this game. Pitt holds a slight edge here. Syracuse in conference has a large split on home versus away foul shooting. While converting at a .712 clip at home (47-66), they take a real tumble on the road down to (.570).

Pitt is actually worse at home than on the road shooting free throws in conference. The differences, though, aren’t as significant. At home, Pitt is shooting .636 (28-44), while on the road Pitt is at .697 (46-66).