What’s home court advantage worth in college basketball? 3 points? According to the latest line from the Stardust, Pitt is a 2 point favorite. On a neutral court, this would be a pick-em or Syracuse would be a slight favorite. As usual, the oddsmakers know.
Looking at the basic stats in conference play only, shows similar numbers, with an edge to Syracuse.
Avgs. per game — FG-FGA —- 3FG-FGA — FT-FTA —- Rebounds — Assists — Turnovers
Syracuse, 7 gms — 28.6-55.4 — 5.6-14.6 — 13.7-21.7 —— 34.7 ——– 15.9 —- 12.4
Pitt, 5 games —- 23.6-49.2 — 5-12.6 —– 14.8-22 ——- 34.2 ——– 11.8 —- 12.6
The edge is obviously in shots taken and made. Syracuse has averaged 76.4 points per game in conference, while Pitt is nearly 10 points lower at 67.
Defensively, Syracuse has allowed only a .394 shooting percentage on 159-104 shooting. What stands out, though, is that in those games, opponents averaged 24.3 3-point attempts in a game. Take out the 3-point shooting (a .324 average) and the shooting from the rest of the field was .444 (104-234). It should also be noted that in 3 of the last 4 games, Syracuse has allowed 70 points or more. On the whole, Syracuse has allowed opponents 66.9 points per game
Pitt’s defense has not been as good as the past couple years. The Panthers have allowed Big East opponents to shoot .430 overall. Pitt’s opponents have taken a significant number of 3-point shots, 18.6 per game, and once those are taken out of the mix, opponents have shot about .461 (88-191). Pitt though, has been more effective at limiting shot opportunities, hence why no BE team has scored more than 67 against them.
Then there are the deeper numbers. Ken Pomerory, has his own set of stats (explanation for them here) for all Division I basketball programs. Through games played on Wednesday, January 26, here are these numbers all are adjusted, except for the last one, the number in parenthesis is the overall rank amidst the 326 teams:
———- Tempo/Pace — Offensive Efficiency — Defensive Eff. — Shot Att. Diff.
Syracuse — 69.4 (121) — 114.6 (14) ———– 92.4 (46) —— 1.9 (115)
Pitt ——– 64.9 (289) — 112.2 (21) ———– 94.6 (69) —— 3.6 (77)
The overall edge goes to Syracuse. Both teams are very efficient in taking advantage of scoring opportunities, but Syracuse plays at a faster pace (though the Orange won’t exactly be confused with being a running team), and is slightly better on defense. Pitt, though, is better at denying more shot opportunities.
The pace issue may be the biggest factor. It’s really one of the major differences between the two teams. Pitt plays a very slow half-court game. Not just on offense, but on forcing opponents to work for their shots. Last week UConn became frustrated with trying to set the play and get the ball inside for good shots in the second half and started throwing up jumpers.
I’ll look at the individual players later.
