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January 26, 2005

Basketball Notes

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:13 pm

Some more love for Chevy Troutman and Pitt. Dick Vitale may not think Pitt has one of the top 5 front courts in the country, but others believe.

Chevon Troutman and Chris Taft (Pittsburgh)

The lowdown: Many would argue that the best Big East post combination resides in Pittsburgh, not Storrs, and they would have some potent ammunition, based on the Panthers’ victory over the Huskies Saturday night.

Troutman (14.1 ppg and 8.3 rpg) has been among the most dependable power forwards in the country over four seasons, playing on teams that reached the Sweet 16 in each of his first three years. There’s not much flashy about the way he plays — he’s a model of low-post economy who is an even better rebounder and defender than he is a scorer.

Taft (13.8 ppg and 6.9 rpg) hasn’t enjoyed, so far, the caliber of sophomore season that Josh Boone is turning in for Connecticut. It’s hard to dispute the notion that he and his Big East counterpart are pretty much on the same talent plateau, though.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Why it’s worth watching: The Orange is 7-0 in the Big East (and 19-1 overall). But its past five conference games could have all gone either way. The host Panthers came from 11 points down to win at Connecticut Saturday — easily their most significant victory of the season.

What to look for: Senior forward Chevon Troutman (29 points and 12 rebounds) played, arguably, the best game of his career for Pitt in the win over the Huskies. He’ll have his toughest defensive matchup of the season, though, in trying to check Hakim Warrick, who is having a possible John R. Wooden Award-winning caliber senior season for Syracuse.

Speaking of Troutman, here’s another little nugget

Stat stuffer:Chevon Troutman will easily surpass Patrick Ewing’s .608 career field-goal percentage in Big East games. But Pitt’s 6-7 post player with an 86-inch wingspan will not oust the Georgetown giant as the league record-holder. Why? Because the minimum required is five field goals made per game. Troutman (.666, 191 of 287 in 47 games) would need 99 FGs in 11 remaining conference games to average 5.0 per game. That won’t happen.

Further interesting factoid. While Pitt may be the worst free throw shooting team in the Big East, Syracuse only shoots .582 away from the Carrier Dome. Something to watch.

Football, Other Views

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:11 pm

Youngstown State is happy to be playing Pitt. The Penguins were 4-7 last year, and as noted in their local paper, this is the first game they are playing that is a “money game,” i.e., taking the guaranteed patsy cash payout. At least they are happy.

Speaking of happy, the University of Cincinnati is feeling good about its recruiting class. They beat Pitt for a local QB prospect, and have had their best recruiting class in years. They credit a lot of it to the move to the Big East.

Opportunities and Numbers

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:49 am

Slow day for news on Pitt.

A puff piece on Levon Kendall. His increased playing time has come, in part due to Demetris’ suspension. But also because McCarroll and DeGroat have failed to step up with the opportunity.

It was January 2002, and a little-known freshman with a lot of ability but little experience was thrust into a game against Georgetown. Having not played in the previous four games, this player scored 8 points and had 4 rebounds and 2 assists in a come-from-behind Pitt victory, prompting former coach Ben Howland to admit a mistake.

“I don’t look very smart not playing him more,” Howland said at the time. “I’m going to have to change my philosophy.”

That player was Chevon Troutman, and all he needed was a chance.

Three years later, a similar situation has developed for coach Jamie Dixon.

Kendall had a great summer, starring on the under-21 Canadian national team. But when the season began at Pitt, he was buried in the rotation.

The other story in the papers was one on Pitt’s improved 3-point shooting.

Pitt could escape neither its statistics nor its rankings after finishing 320th (out of 326 NCAA Division I teams) in 3-pointers per game last season.

The Panthers have nearly pulled a 360 this season.

Pitt is shooting 42.2 percent (103 of 244) from beyond the arc, fourth nationally and best in the Big East. If the season ended today, it would break the school record of 41.7.

Although the Panthers still rank in the middle of the pack nationally in 3s per game (157th, 6.4), their turnaround in 3-point shooting has been nothing short of astounding.

“Nearly pulled a 360?” They at least corrected the headline of the story. It had previously used the “360 turnaround” line.

The thing is, the numbers (PDF) on 3-point shooting are kind of deceptive to me. The story obviously focuses on the guards: Antonio Graves, Ronald Ramon and Carl Krauser. The 3 have combined to go 75-171 (.439), have taken about 70% of the teams 3-point attmpts (171 of 244) and are responsible for over 75% of the 3-point shots made (75 of 103).

The thing is, this includes the non-con schedule. And I think we all know by now about how bad that schedule and the competition was. Right now, and more importantly, the key should be how things are going in the conference. In the conference, Pitt is below 40% (25-63, .397).

Graves is an extreme example. He shot amazingly well in the non-conference portion. Overall he shot 29-50 (.580). He was remarkably consistent from anywhere. Shooting nearly the same % from inside or outside the arc. Once conference play began, though, it has been a different story. Obviously, Graves couldn’t keep shooting that well, and his 3-point shot is still a good percentage. He is shooting more in 5 conference games as compared to the 9 non-cons he played. Still, it is a hard drop and the rest of his shooting is absolutely abysmal right now. From inside the arc, he is well under .200. For Graves, I think the problem is he likes to have a set shot. He does not seem to feel comfortable driving or pulling up. An area he definitely needs to work on improving.

——————— FG-FGA ——- 3FG-3FGA — non3FG-FGA — Shots/Gm
Graves 14 games — 38-81 (.469) — 17-33 (.515) — 21-48 (.438) —– 5.8
Non-Con 9 games — 29-50 (.580) — 11-19 (.579) — 18-31 (.581) —– 5.6
Conference 5 games — 9-31 (.290) — 6-14 (.429) — 3-17 (.176) —– 6.2

Ramon, unlike Graves, has improved significantly on his 3-point shooting in conference play. He went from under 40% to just under 50%. The number of shots he takes in a game has remained steady at around 6 per game. Ramon has shown with his 3-point shooting to be comfortable setting for the shot or pulling up for it.

——————— FG-FGA ——- 3FG-3FGA — non3FG-FGA — Shots/Gm
Ramon 16 Games — 41-98 (.418) — 32-78 (.410) —- 9-20 (.450) —– 6.1
Non-Con 11 Games — 26-66 (.394) — 20-53 (.377) — 6-13 (.462) —– 6
Conference 5 Games — 15-32 (.469) — 12-25 (.480) — 3-7 (.429) —– 6.4

Krauser is an extreme example, but in a different way. His 3 point shooting is way down in % and attempts in conference, but his shooting from the rest of the field has improved. Krauser’s taken about 3 shots less per conference game than in the non-cons, mostly because he is taking about 2 less 3-point attempts in conference.

——————— FG-FGA ——- 3FG-3FGA — non3FG-FGA — Shots/gm
Krauser 16 games — 68-160 (.425) — 26-60 (.433) — 42-100 (.420) — 10
Non-Con 11 games — 52 -121 (.430) — 22-48 (.458) — 30-73 (.411) —- 11
Conference 5 games — 16-39 (.410) — 4-12 (.333) — 12-27 (.444) —– 7.8

I’m sure this is a shock to many who believe that Krauser is hoisting way too many shots in a game. The team averages 53.3 shots in a game overall (55.1 non-con and 49.2 conference). Krauser’s shot numbers have gone down in conference play in terms of real and as a percentage of the team’s shots. Obviously, with Pitt’s deliberate half-court offense, they don’t make a lot of shot attempts in a game. This is why the volume of Pitt turnovers loom so large.

Keep in mind that this is probably a bit unfair because of the sample size, especially for the conference schedule is very small. So, one game can easily skew the numbers. And there are other factors. Ramon is a Freshman, and improvement as he got confidence and familiar with the system and his role should lead to improved shooting. Conversely, Graves faced less pressure and attention early in the season, as his good shooting and became noticed, teams were playing him differently. Especially when teams realized Demetris was a complete non-factor on the offense. Krauser has had opposing defenses come out further on him as he showed more accuracy on shooting the 3 than he did last year, especially further into the season. His use of the 3-point shot is as much to decoy them to play out further on them so he has room to take his defender off the dribble.

Still, a deeper look at the numbers suggests that if Pitt is going to use the 3-point shot, they have to use it right. Graves shouldn’t be expected to take 3s off of screens or with some stop and pop. His shots need to come on open looks from crisp passing and ball movement to allow him to set up. Ramon, is a little more versatile. He can take the 3 off a screen, or in motion.

UPDATE: I see (via College Basketball Blog) that a college basketball beat writer in Philly is surprised about Pitt shooting 3s better as well. The simple explanation is the players change, as do their strengths and weaknesses.

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