As a fan, one of the more troubling thing about Pitt’s January slide is the fact that it has turned this game — a game I marked early as a can’t miss, send the wife and child somewhere, anywhere so I can focus fully on it — from one I was eagerly anticipating. Excited about the possibilities. Ready for a wild game. Now it is one I have a sense of dread over. Worried about how bad Pitt could end up looking. Scared they are going to be run out of the joint on the ESPN marquee game. That’s frustrating. This is the big game of the weekend, and everyone has it noted. From Greg Doyel at Sportsline.

No. 21 Pittsburgh at No. 16 UConn: Once one of the Big East’s marquee games, this is more a battle for survival, especially for Pittsburgh (12-3, 2-2), which has played five consecutive unranked teams and lost to three of them — and barely beat Rutgers and Seton Hall in between. The situation isn’t nearly as dire for emerging superstar Charlie Villanueva and UConn (11-3, 3-1), though the Huskies could fall two losses behind Boston College and Syracuse in the league standings with a slip here.

He is dead right for Pitt. Seth Davis at SI.com sees a UConn win:

It’s unusual to see at matchup of two teams whose strengths and weaknesses are so similar. Both squads use their big men to anchor their offense and defense. Both have lots of talent but limited experience on the perimeter. Their guards can make plays but are too loose with the ball. And neither squad is as good defensively as it was last year, but both have exciting freshmen who can score points in a hurry.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Huskies’ strengths are stronger than the Panthers’, and their weaknesses are not as weak. Yes, Pitt has a muscular, studly duo inside in Chevon Troutman and Chris Taft, but Taft has been inconsistent this season. They are sure to be outmatched by UConn’s Josh Boone and Charlie Villanueva, who once again have this team leading the nation in blocks. (Villanueva, incidentally, has broken out of his slump the past few weeks, mostly because he figured out he should use his inside skills to set up his outside game, instead of vice versa.) UConn has struggled while breaking in Marcus Williams (and his freshman replacement, Antonio Kellogg) at the point, but Pitt is actually having more trouble at that position as Carl Krauser has committed 26 turnovers in four Big East games — including eight in Wednesday’s loss at St. John’s. And while the Panthers have every reason to be excited that freshman guard Ronald Ramon has emerged as a scoring threat (his 21 points saved them in a win at Rutgers), he is no Rudy Gay. No freshman is.
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The fact is, Pittsburgh has, to no one’s surprise, had a hard time replacing the defensive expertise and toughness of graduated guards Julius Page and Jaron Brown, who combined to start more than 200 games in their careers. How else to explain why Darryl Hill of St. John’s was able to light up the Panthers for 26 points? If Anderson and Brown are hoping to recapture their shooting touch, Pitt represents a good opportunity. Meanwhile, Williams and Kellogg can run the Huskies’ halfcourt offense and transtion game knowing they won’t have to worry too much about facing ball pressure. The same cannot be said for Krauser, Ramon and sophomore guard Antonio Graves.

Pitt’s best chances at winning are to get Boone and/or Villanueva into foul trouble, or have Krauser put in an epic performance. Either is certainly possible, but the more likely scenario is that the sloppy ballhandling will help create a quicker tempo, which in the end will benefit the Huskies. This game, by the way, is being played not in the antiseptic Hartford Civic Center but in Gampel Pavilion on the UConn campus. The scoreboard that hangs over the court is where the similarities between these teams will end.

Seth’s Pick: UConn 72, Pittsburgh 60

Hard to argue right now. Pitt and UConn both had some struggles so far. The difference, was that UConn realized theirs first — the early upset loss to UMass — and Coach Jim Calhoun made started adjusting to his personnel. Now UConn is playing an inside game, not relying on the outside shots. Pitt didn’t realize the problems and then went into some denial over them, and now it could be too late.

Even at ESPN, where they have to hope for a very good game, Jay Bilas breaks down the game and picks UConn (subs. only).

However, this Pitt team has struggled, comparatively, on the defensive end. The Panthers are giving up 44 percent shooting to its Big East opponents, including almost 50 percent to St. John’s in the loss earlier this week. Overall, that ranks in the bottom half of the league, and Pitt’s 3-point defense is even softer (and soft is not a word associated with Pitt Basketball), allowing teams to shoot 40 percent from behind the arc.

Pitt also forces only nine turnovers per game in Big East play, and has to grind you in order to win. Carl Krauser is the Panthers’ best scorer and player, and has been facing more defensive attention than ever. Chevy Troutman and Chris Taft are quality big men, but Troutman is undersized and has to bull his way to the basket.

UConn has the best and most talented frontline in the college game. Josh Boone leads the league in double-doubles, blocked shots, rebounding and field goal percentage. Charlie Villanueva is one of the most improved players in the Big East, and has played his best basketball over the last five games. Rudy Gay is arguably the best freshman big man in the nation, and is the smoothest operator.
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Bottom Line: UConn is too strong. At home, the Huskies will be tough to beat. I like UConn in this one.

Still, if there is reason to hope, it is that this has become a rivalry game.

Pittsburgh has the responsibility to maintain its rivalry with Connecticut.

If the Panthers continue their free fall, not just this season, but beyond, then the new rivalry between the two schools will be over almost before it began.

That’s it. Goodbye.

Connecticut’s rivalry date book is pretty full. The Huskies might have room for one more, but it’s up to Pitt to keep that date.

UConn’s primary rival is Syracuse. Connecticut could start getting one going with UMass, according to coach Jim Calhoun, after the way the Minutemen beat the Huskies in Amherst last month. And don’t be surprised if Louisville doesn’t become the new rivalry for the Huskies when the Cardinals join the Big East next season.
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When the Huskies got started in the Big East, the rivals for them were Seton Hall and Boston College. Calhoun said they were all trying to climb out of the bottom. None were ready to challenge Syracuse, Georgetown, St. John’s and Villanova at the time.

Connecticut became the power and eventually surpassed everyone, except Syracuse, which genuinely is regarded as an equal. The two schools have won the last two national championships. But the past three seasons, Connecticut has had to get past Pittsburgh. The two teams have met in the last three Big East tournament title games.

Connecticut won in 2002 and 2004. Pittsburgh won in 2003. The overall series the past three seasons is split at 3-3.

A year ago, Pittsburgh was 18-0 when Connecticut beat the Panthers in Hartford. They play Saturday at Gampel Pavilion on Connecticut’s campus, the first time the two teams have met there since 1995.

Calhoun says the rivalry dates back to Dec. 12, 1998, when Ralph Willard was coaching the Panthers and the Huskies won at Pittsburgh. He said it began when Khalid El-Amin stood up on a scorer’s table after the Huskies came back to win and stuff was thrown at him and the Huskies. El-Amin was the recipient of verbal bashing from the fans, too.

I agree with Calhoun as to when the teams really started a bit of a rivalry.

I just hope to be proven wrong on my fears.