This may come as a shock, but I really don’t have much of a sense as to how this game will go at this point. I just have not seen much, nor read enough about Utah’s actual game (as opposed to just glowing praise of the team and the coach) to form an opinion. And I have to say, most of the stories talking about the game have been less than informative. They usually just talk about the coaches going to new jobs and the game will be on the QBs. Then without much explanation they just go with something like “Utah has too much firepower for Pitt” as if nothing further is needed.

There is a more trusted source this time. I find the writers at College Football News have actually watched the teams and know a little more about what they are writing. So, they have a preview and keys to the Fiesta Bowl worth reading in full. From the Preview portion:

Pittsburgh will win if… it avoids the early Utah run. Once the Ute offense gets on a roll, it’s impossible to slow down while the defense always seems to feed off the momentum of the moment. Pittsburgh has to strike early and strike heavy slapping the Ute defense in the mouth with a couple of big plays. The Utes are second in the nation in turnover margin taking away 29 and only giving up 13, but Pittsburgh is ninth with a solid ball-hawking defense. If the Panthers can force a few mistakes and capitalize, it’ll have a shot.

That’s the encouragement. Now from the keys, and what makes me worry:

One of the underrated aspects of Walt Harris’s career at Pittsburgh was his ability to get some ball players out of the state of Florida. That is no more evident than when looking at the Pittsburgh linebackers, HB Blades and Clint Session. The two south Floridians have combined for 188 tackles on the year and have improved significantly from last year, the freshman year for both of them. However, they’ll be under the microscope in a major way in Tempe against the vaunted Utah offense. Against West Virginia, there were a number of occasions where the two linebackers were caught out of position when WVU QB Rasheed Marshall ran the QB zone read trap. Marshall picked up chunks of yardage early as Blades, in particular, was chasing the running back after a solid fake. Um, bad news for the Panthers because that’s a staple in this Utah offense. So, against this offense one of the best ways to not get caught out of position is to cross key the potential ball carriers, especially when Smith is in the backfield with only one other back. Blades and Session run exceptionally well, but that speed can get them out of position, so reading their keys is huge in this game for this duo. They’re going to need some help from their defensive front, in that they’ve got to be able to run to the ball without having a lineman come free to hit them in the face. It’s going to be hard to enough to find the ball, much less to have to get free of a guy like Ute OL Chris Kemoeatu. Don’t be surprised to see the Pittsburgh defensive staff use either one of them in blitz packages if they’re not able to slow this offense conventionally. It’s a huge role of the dice to take your linebackers and put them on blitz missions against this offense, but with a pair of Floridians like this, you can take your chances.

That’s what I mean by guys who actually watched the teams play. Pitt, even in the last game against USF, was painfully burned at times when the D bit on the obvious fake to the RB. Read both pieces. It will at least give you an idea of what Pitt will be facing.

The Pitt web site has put out some of the quotes from player interviews. The defensive players were actually interviewed yesterday, and you can see their comments sprinkled in the articles (but Pitt only put the direct quotes up today). Later they added the quotes from members of the offense. From Rob Petiti:

On keys to winning:

“We have to score more. We have to control the ball. We can’t make mistakes, especially turnovers. If we’re going to win this game, I don’t want to say we have to play perfect, because you never do, but mistake-free. We don’t want to turn over the ball. We want to make their offense work for everything.”

On the Fiesta Bowl experience:

We’ve been here only two days. The hotel is awesome. It’s something I could probably get used to, except for the spider in the bathroom.

Must have been a hell of a spider.

Tyler Palko:

On Utah’s defense:

“They can do a lot of things and play fast. They do a lot and they’re good at all the things they do. They show a lot of things and they disguise well. It’s going to be a challenge for me because you have to prepare so much mentally for this game. I’m looking forward to the challenge, it will be my hardest game, mentally, that I have to face and I’m looking forward to that. It’s going to force me to prepare like I would against a pro football team. They can do so much and I’m welcoming that challenge. I’m really looking forward to that.”

On Pitt’s Approach:

“We’re not going to go into this game any differently. The big thing we have to realize is, it’s just a football game. Just like when we went into Notre Dame, we can’t be in awe. You’ve got to control the ball and take care of the clock. We’re up to the challenge. You can’t dictate how the game is going to go when so many things can happen. Everyone is talking about how good both offenses are, I thing the defense is going to come out with a little chip on their shoulder; with something to prove.”

Harris may not necessarily inspire the troops, but you have to believe they will follow Palko through a wall.

This is just some unfinished thought I had bouncing in my skull.

Louisville, which recently raised the salary of their head football coach Bobby Petrino, is going to have to sweat it out whether he will be spirited away to LSU. Doesn’t matter that his salary will be nearly $1 million per year. LSU can and will offer more if they decide he is their guy.

Why bring this up? Well, one of the big arguments everyone advanced for bringing in Wannstedt or someone like him (Cavanaugh, Sunseri) was that he was a Pitt guy. A guy from the area. Played at Pitt, coached at Pitt. And all of that is great.

But what if he does everything we hope he does in a few years? Gets Pitt back to national contention. Shows no signs of being a one season wonder. Recruiting is yearly top-15. What happens if Miami under Larry Coker continues to fall short of national title contention? Wanny was a top assistant and recruiter there. He won a national championship with Jimmy Johnson. Now at Pitt, he showed he can win at the college level. Think they wouldn’t make a run at him. Why wouldn’t he at least listen? He must have some feelings left over for the area and the school. And you know Miami would be perfectly willing to throw the money for a coach.

Arguably, even at his introductory press conference he left wiggle room to leave someday, by saying “I would plan on this being my last coaching stop.” It is the plan now, but things change later.

I’m not trying to be negative. I’m very happy with the hire. But lets stay realistic. His ties and roots may help, but they do not assure he will never leave. Just as they don’t assure success.

I know, I’ve been complaining about this years schedule since the summer. I complained about last year’s non-con as well. It’s mainly two things: 1. It’s embarrassing for a team and a program that has been in the Big East Tournament Championship game for 4 straight years, to play such a weak schedule; 2. It means people like me who live outside of the Pittsburgh region don’t get to see Pitt very much until sometime in January. Everyone talks recruiting as the big thing in college. How do you help recruiting? By winning and being seen on national TV. Pitt is doing one but not the other.

I’ve mentioned that Seth Davis of Sports Illustrated has blasted the non-con regularly. He leads with his mailbag on the issue again.

We’ll begin with Patrick from Pittsburgh, who is one of many Panthers fans who took umbrage with my criticism of their team’s weak non-conference schedule:

I just don’t get where all the anti-Pitt venom comes from. Certainly Pitt doesn’t play a tough non-conference schedule. But looking at today’s Sagarin ratings, Pitt plays three top-50 non-conference opponents in December. UConn, the defending national champion, plays a grand total of zero before February. I know that people do mention that UConn and teams like them are playing weak schedules, but there seems to be a special hatred for Pitt.

First of all, Patrick, hate is a strong word. Not only do I not hate Pitt, I think it’s very possible the Panthers will end up as the best team (and Carl Krauser the best player) in the Big East. But Pitt fans are constantly carping about a lack of respect from the national media, yet the team plays a non-conference slate that wouldn’t even test a Division III team. And to make matters worse, Pitt left the state of Pennsylvania just once (for the Jimmy V Classic at MSG) before the start of Big East play. Its only true non-conference road game was at Penn State on Dec. 11. Patrick cites the Sagarin ratings, but I can also direct you to the latest RPI numbers from Jerry Palm, which indicate that Pitt’s strength-of-schedule ranking of 260 is lowest among the top 70 teams in the RPI.

Yes, UConn isn’t much better in November and December (140th in strength of schedule), but at least the Huskies are playing at Oklahoma on Jan. 10 and at home against North Carolina on Feb. 13. You also said it yourself — UConn is the defending national champion. The Huskies hardly need to maximize their national TV exposure. Pitt, however, does. Given how good this team appears to be, it’s a shame the school is denying its fans and players the pleasure of playing more meaningful games this time of year.

[I don’t think it was the same Patrick who blogs here occasionally (we are expecting a full posted report on the Fiesta Bowl, BTW).]

Not to mention making it a question mark as to how good the team is or will be; and where it really needs to work on improving. Some things will be obvious, but other things don’t get exposed until late. Kind of like when Syracuse beat Pitt last February. The ‘Cuse went to a collapsing defense, that forced Pitt to make outside shots. Pitt couldn’t, and it cost them that game and was the blueprint followed by opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Mostly side stuff. The teams are practicing, but there isn’t much to report about it. Pitt is working on stopping Utah’s offense. Their practices have done well to stop the shovel pass, but that isn’t making Pitt feel good.

He figures that if the Utes have thrived on that play all season, the Panthers’ reserves who are imitating the Utes’ Paris Warren and others are not doing a very convincing job.

“Going against the scout team offense, we’ve been stopping that play left and right,” Crochunis said Monday. The Utes “must have the timing down so well for that – the speed and tempo; it’s so fast. It’s hard for us to prepare for, because for the scout team offense, it’s a very difficult scheme to run. It takes a couple of weeks to learn.”

Defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads described the Ute offense as “extremely unique,” although Pittsburgh faced spread-offense teams such as Temple, West Virginia and South Florida.

“They really make you work to stay disciplined,” Rhoads said. “Obviously, nobody’s been effective at [stopping] it all year. . . . You’ve got to have everybody in the right location and they can’t vary from that task.”

Rhoads’ defenses are known for basic, sound schemes without much risk. Like Utah’s defense under Kyle Whittingham over the years, the Panthers give up a lot of yards (388.9 per game) but not a lot of points (23.0).

Comments, Lee? Actually, the more I read about the Utah offense, the less I want to know. It makes my palms sweat at the thought of Pitt’s defense facing it.

And while their offense has been categorized in many ways — as a hybrid of a spread and wishbone, a cross between a spread and a pro-set, a spread with too many wrinkles to call it a mix — one word probably describes it best:

Unstoppable.
…
It was developed by coach Urban Meyer when he took over at Bowling Green in 2001. He took pieces of different offenses — the running game from option teams and the passing game from some wide-open teams such as Purdue — and combined them. He brought it to Utah in 2003.

The offense includes many wide-open formations, but it is not a pass-happy system.

In fact, the Utes were ranked higher in Division I-A running the ball than throwing it. And most of the pass routes are short, with receivers gaining a lot of yards after the catch.

Pitt defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads said it is a combination of three offenses that Pitt has faced this year — Temple, South Florida and West Virginia. It combines the quarterback running plays and options of the Mountaineers and Owls with the passing plays and five-wide formations of the Bulls.

If there two words that strikes fear into my heart regarding Pitt football, it is simply “spread offense.”

Sticking with defense and Paul Rhoads for a little longer. A column wonders whether the Utah game will be the deciding issue in whether Rhoads comes back as Pitt’s defensive coordinator under new head coach Dave Wannstedt next year.

Meanwhile the Duquesne head football coach is eyeing a place on the Pitt coaching staff. Well, at the very least the media keeps bandying his name about and asking him. Tells you all you need to know about the head job for the Dukes. Hey, at least he could pocket the moving expenses.

Speaking of pocketing the money, a bunch of the Pitt players decided to drive down to Tempe in rental cars. Each player gets $1400 dollars to use in any way they want for getting to the bowl game. They can keep whatever is left. I like the idea of a roadie, but you have to imagine the coaches were sweating it. 30+ hours driving. Hey, when you have more time than money…

Tyrone Gilliard is loving life in Tempe. Seems he could get used to being waited on constantly.

Perhaps Urban Meyer is looking to piss off the media, or just circle the wagons with his players early in the week. He did his best to keep the players from expected media interviews after practices yesterday. Well, he does have a lot of issues with the turnover of coaches including many who have already left or are assuming new duties in this game.

Utes offensive coordinator Mike Sanford was recently named the head coach at UNLV and he left Utah immediately after he was hired. He also took with him linebackers coach Kurt Barber and tight ends coach Keith Uperesa. Cornerbacks coach Chuck Heater, who is going with Meyer, already has left to start his position at Florida.

That means the staff was short-handed by four coaches.

To make up for the losses, Meyer promoted quarterbacks coach Dan Mullen to offensive coordinator and two graduate assistants, Lance Hunsaker and Garry Fisher, will take on the roles of full-time assistants. And volunteer assistant Jay Hill has been hired as a defensive assistant.

Here’s a longer piece on Dan Mullen. He’ll be leaving Utah for Florida after the Fiesta Bowl with Meyer, along with offensive line coach John Hevesy and receivers coach Billy Gonzales. Mullen will not be up in the booth, but stay down on the field. At least for Pitt, while the coaching staff may be sweating, they haven’t left.

Add in another Ute who is dealing with rumors of turning pro after the game. Wide Receiver Steve Savoy is giving it a serious thought.

A fairly interesting piece comparing the two QBs — Tyler Palko and Alex Smith.

In four days, Palko and Smith will ask a national television audience to strap on the seat belts. It could be an incredible ride. Both are capable of putting up monster numbers and neither takes kindly to losing.

“A Heisman finalist and a Heisman candidate for next year,” said Pitt linebacker H.B. Blades. “That’s what we got in this game. You’re talking about two really good quarterbacks. I’ll take Tyler, but I’m sure Utah will take (Smith). Both can play the game.”

And everyone expects big numbers on both sides.

To think, Pitt could have faced Texas in Tempe.