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December 21, 2004

The Vagaries of Polls

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 2:53 pm

B.B. asks in a comment:

…do you think Pitt impressed Coppin St. the other night? We moved up from 10 to 7 in the coaches poll after defeating Coppin St. Kentucky only moved up one spot (11 to 10) after beating Louisville. We passed Syracuse, who beat Drexel by 20 points last week in their only game. The difference? Coppin St.’s coach has a vote in the coaches poll. I’m guessing that he had Pitt pretty high.

Indeed, I was surprised we moved at all. Pitt didn’t move at all in the AP Writers’ Poll. Georgia Tech tumbled to #9 from #3 after losing on the road to Gonzaga. While my biases say the ACC is a bit overrated, that seemed fair.

Meanwhile the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll pushed Pitt up to #7. Kentucky winning a tough rivalry game in Louisville, a top-20 team, only got a one spot bump to #10. Yes, the Coppin St. head coach is a voter this year, but so is Dave Odom of South Carolina. Guess who Pitt plays next week? I’m guessing Odom also pushed Pitt a bit higher in his polls so that win or lose it can only help his team in the RPI. Not that we can prove it since coaches don’t release how they voted. Must protect the sanctity of their poll system.

Roughly, though, that would probably explain the jump for Pitt. Last week, Pitt had 479 vote points in the Coaches Poll. This week, they increased that to 545. A whopping 66 point increase. Kentucky had a 46 point increase. Pitt’s point total was only 2 ahead of #8 Syracuse and 9 ahead of #9 GT.

It simply points out one of the terrible problems/hypocrisy with the polls in both college and football where the coaches demand transparency from all except themselves and their program.





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