Where will Pitt end up?
Pitt cannot go to the Orange Bowl since they are nowhere near #1 or #2 in the BCS rankings. The Rose Bowl likely out too, since USC would automatically go if they lost this Saturday to UCLA. So it must be either the Sugar Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl.

It seems like each national sports publication that engages in bowl projections has Pitt going to the Fiesta Bowl and not the Sugar. Why?

Take a look at the actual BCS bowl selection process.

Basically, the Orange is the championship game this year, so they get #1 and #2.
The Rose has two host teams: the Big10 champion (Michigan) and the Pac10 champion (USC).
The Sugar‘s single host team is the SEC champ (Auburn or Tennessee). The Fiesta‘s single host is the Big12 champ (Oklahoma or Colorado).

When a host team is pulled out of their original spot into the Orange Bowl, then a replacement is selected from the BCS eligible teams. If all goes as expected this weekend and the BCS standings stay roughly the same, then the Rose will pick a replacement for USC (since they are higher ranked host team yanked away), then the Fiesta will replace Oklahoma. Those replacements must be among the following teams: the ACC champ (VaTech or Miami), the Big East champ (Pitt), any mid-major conference champ in the top 6 (Utah), and the next highest ranked team in the BCS rankings (California).
The Rose will no doubt pick California to replace USC.
Then the Fiesta will pick between Utah, VaTech-Miami and Pitt. Since Utah is higher ranked, and closer to Tempe, the Fiesta will likely pick Utah to replace Oklahoma.
That leaves one spot in the Sugar and one in the Fiesta. At this point, those two bowls rank their preferred teams from the remaining BCS eligible teams. All biases aside, both VaTech and Miami are preferable to Pitt for both bowls, so it is probable that both bowls would rather have the ACC champ than our Panthers. So which one “wins” in this battle?

According to the BCS web site:
Any BCS bowl game(s) still unfilled will submit a listing of its top three team selections to fill its at-large slot. Any conference champion not already placed in a bowl game must be listed among such bowl game’s first two selections. Each BCS bowl will then be given its highest available preference of teams. In a situation where two or more bowls select the same team(s) with their choices, the priority of selection goes initially to the bowl making the larger per team payment and then rotates to the other bowls not given first priority in a previous year.

So which bowl is that? The BCS site lists all bowls as paying between $14 million and $17 million. I can’t find any information payouts on any bowl web sites either.
What does “first priority” mean? Certainly the Fiesta did NOT have first priority last year, with also rans KSU and OSU playing in Tempe and producing the lowest Nielsen rating of all BCS bowls last year. The Sugar was the championship game last year, so one would think the Fiesta would get first pick between the two this year. Wouldn’t they rather have the ACC champ than lowly Pitt?

But there is also another proviso:
In certain situations, a host team for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, or Nokia Sugar Bowl may, but need not, be placed in another BCS game. Factors that are considered in making that determination include:
1. The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years.
2. Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season. 3. The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years. 4. An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

At the conclusion of these procedures, the pairings established by the BCS bowls may be adjusted by the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and interesting postseason matchups possible. The factors considered in adjusting the pairings are the same as those considered in determining whether to move a host team into a different bowl.

Factor #4 may be at work here. In fact, #4 worked to trump #2 last season, as Miami and FSU were paired in the Orange Bowl even though they played each other earlier in the season.
Would an Auburn-ACC Champ match up have greater appeal to college football fans? How about an Auburn-Utah match up? Either way, Pitt ends up in the Fiesta Bowl by that measure, unless Auburn is also pulled to the Fiesta (which is unlikely).

It seems the only way for Pitt to play in the Sugar, which is my preference, is if the Fiesta somehow puts its foot down and demands the better team between Pitt and the ACC champ.

Or…
one or more of the top teams loses on Saturday.

If USC loses to UCLA, but OU and Auburn win – that puts USC in the Rose, Auburn and OU in the Orange, and California (or Texas, if they jump) an at-large team that is VERY attractive to the Fiesta bowl to host – more so than Utah, Pitt or the ACC Champ; Auburn would go to the Orange, perhaps setting up a Pitt v. old Big East rival in the Sugar? One can only dream…

If Auburn loses (and OU wins), then Tennessee is the host of the Sugar; Cal could be out of the BCS, with Auburn possibly going to the Rose since they get first pick (Pitt could still end up in the Fiesta); Auburn could fall below Cal and thus be out themselves, leaving the Sugar as weak a match up as the Fiesta and thus no overriding football reason to take the Fiesta’s pick away from them (Pitt could go to the Sugar).

If OU loses (and Auburn wins), then Colorado goes to the Fiesta as the host, Auburn goes to the Orange, and OU would likely replace Auburn as the host of the Sugar – Pitt probably goes to the Fiesta, unless the Rose does something crazy like pick OU to replace USC – thus the Sugar may go after Cal or Utah, which again begs the question why shift teams around in the interests of college football?

If OU loses AND Auburn loses, OU may still be in the top 2, which means they still go to the Orange; Tennessee to host the Sugar, Colorado to host the Fiesta; either Cal or Auburn go out depending on how far Auburn falls; if Cal goes out, then Auburn to the Rose; if Cal ends up #2 because both OU and Auburn dropped below them, then the Rose could take OU or Auburn, OU, or possibly Texas, if OU and Auburn drop enough (hell, maybe even Utah!).

If all top three teams lose, then it’s a cluster: the computers will have to somehow pick the top 2 from between USC, OU, Auburn, Cal and possibly Texas and Utah (since schedule strengths would be altered due to the wins and losses on Saturday). Still, Pitt and the ACC champ would await, as well as Michigan, Colorado and Tennessee. None of the latter teams can make the Orange, so with USC still in the Rose if it’s not in #1 or #2, it will still be between the Fiesta and Sugar for Pitt – with the same factors at work.

Ugh…my brain hurts from all that hypothesizing. Right now, I’m rooting for the Bruins.

My updated projections:
Orange: USC v. Oklahoma
Rose: Michigan v. California
Sugar: Auburn v. VaTech
Fiesta: Utah v. Pitt

If dreams come true and UCLA beats USC, with Auburn and OU winning:
Orange: Oklahoma v. Auburn
Rose: USC v. Michigan
Sugar: Pitt v. VaTech
Fiesta: Utah v. California