Jeez, what an afternoon. Here in Cleveland, Butch Davis has apparently resigned. Snap theory — he knew this season was it and he couldn’t take the chance on hoping the Florida job stayed open to get fired to collect the rest of his contract money. Probably some settlement, but not nearly what Davis wanted. (Though, according to this report he did get all the cash.)

Then the news hit that ND fired Tyrone Willingham. That was a shock. Obviously ND has given in to its alumni and booster pressure and feels it must get soon to be former Utah Coach Urban Meyer before Florida.

Now, more importantly/selfishly, how does all of this affect Pitt? Well, Willingham is already rumored for the Washington job. No one know when the move on Meyer will come (he has a clause in his Utah contract allowing him to take the ND job for little or no buy out). One way or another this has to have an effect on the Utah team, that Pitt will face in a month. The “best” thing for Pitt is to have this whole thing be unclear for at least 3 weeks. Keep things in flux and distract Utah as much as possible. In an ideal world it would be like the news leaking that John L. Smith leaving Louisville for Michigan St. just before the Liberty Bowl — totally demoralizing the Cardinals.

As for the status of Harris and what the Pitt administration will do. It is pure speculation. My thought is that with so many higher profile jobs open — Washington, ND, Florida, Stanford (and maybe Cal, Iowa, and LSU if any of those coaches leave for a pro job) — not to mention the other schools with openings that Pitt may suddenly be looking at having limited options in who it could go after. They might realize that their best option is just to re-up with Coach Walt Harris, rather than try and compete for another hot coach or assistant.

After the Prosser/Dixon basketball coach hiring fiasco, I don’t have faith in the administration to have created an extensive list of candidates and to have prepared for these contingencies.

My feeling is that if Harris and Pitt takes care of USF, then the school and Harris might very well work to get an extension in place and announced in the intervening time between then and the Fiesta Bowl.

Again, this is just immediate, first impressions. I may completely change my mind in a little while. My underlying assumptions about much could be dead wrong, but that’s what I’m thinking right now.

It should be explained that I’m about the only one in PSB who has played golf on any sort of regular basis, and I haven’t even had time to pick up my clubs to get to the driving range since my daughter was born 2 1/2 years ago. So one of the oft-cited appeals of going to a bowl game in Arizona — golfing, doesn’t work for us.

Still it is a selling point for some. Anyhow, we invited JFC, who attends school at Arizona State to give us some reasons to travel to Tempe for the Fiesta Bowl, assuming that is where Pitt is going.

Here it is:

Well, it’s a tall order when you’re asked to convince people to spend
thousands of dollars to visit your city. I suppose it’s nothing new as
people often feel sorry for me when I say I am from Pittsburgh. Imagine
trying to explain Primanti’s, the O in Oakland, Station Square or the Strip
to an outsider. They just donÂ’t get it. So here is my valiant attempt at a
convincing argument for spending New Years in Phoenix.

As Patrick earlier said, one of the big drawing points for him was the
proximity of the Superdome and the French Quarter. Sun Devil Stadium is
right in the heart of Tempe. Our version of the Quarter is Mill Avenue.
Restaurants, Shops and Bars are right there. Mill is the main hangout for
any student at the University. I can only imagine the hordes of people who
will congregate there before, after and during the game. It was my Dad’s
favorite spot to hang out while he visited. It’s perfect for families,
singles and the occasional man having a mid life crises. Mill is of course
equipped with all the gimmicky bars that college campuses usually have. The
Library, Dos Gringos (which sells more Coronas then any bar in America) and
the Firehouse to name a few. Mill is maybe two blocks west of Sun Devil
Stadium

To the North is Tempe Town Park. Think Point State Park with a man made
lake instead of rivers. This is generally a family oriented area during the
Fiesta Bowl. They have petting zoos, concerts, boating, etc. It’s kind of
a carnival like atmosphere up there. ASU generally sponsors a portion of
the Lake activities so they are generally pretty tolerable. ItÂ’s a good
place to take the wife and kids for a couple of hours.

A common misconception is that Tempe is a city unto itself. Tempe is just
like Oakland. It’s not like we are out in the middle of the desert or
anything. Phoenix is set up on the grid system so it’s surprisingly easy
to navigate a city of 6 million. Ten minutes from the airport, 30 minutes
from downtown and 30 minutes from Scottsdale puts Tempe in a central
location.

Scottsdale is a definite hot spot. There are some unbelievable bars and
nightclubs up there that really make that community the best in town. There
are plenty of singles looking to steal married men from their husbands. For
what its worth, a lot of reality TV casting goes on up there.

I attend ASU on a golf scholarship so one of my biggest reasons for being
here is weather and golf. I probably haven’t seen a cloud in at least two
months. By late December it will be a more then comfortable 70 degrees.
Golf is everywhere out here. Phoenix is home to three PGA Tour stops and
there are premier golf courses at every turn. Where there is golf there are
5 star resorts. As I recall there are three within reasonable driving
distance and a slew of lesser resorts within the city. The state of Arizona
is also full of entrepreneurial Native Americans. Casino Arizona and Gila
River Casino are 5 minutes from Tempe via Highway 60.

I think this is the best I can do besides listing college kid type things
like Lake Havasu and $49 flights to Vegas. If I haven’t touched on anything
pertinent please leave a comment. Really, the only reason for coming to
Tempe is to see Pitt. Everything else is secondary. You guys are Pitt fans
and have waited a long time for this. The team held up their end of the
bargain by qualifying for the bowl. It’s time for us fans to do our part.
This is easy for me to say as I just have to pay for the plane ticket and
donÂ’t have to worry about family aspect but every time someone says Pitt
doesn’t travel well it stings a little. If you are not going to go and
enjoy your teams first BCS bowl when will you go and support them?

Thank you and well said, John.

Another one of our readers, Tony in Harrisburg sent his own contribution to why go to Tempe:

#10 Chest & Face Painting is the norm in Tempe
#9 You know the Utes Fans will be there & we need a counter Balance
#8 If you don’t go you give the media another reason to say Pitt doesn’t belong in a BCS Bowl
#7 You can fly Southwest for less then a Ben Franklin per person
#6 It’s warm in Tempe in January
#5 The rest of the country thinks Texas should be playing, and there will be No bigger stage for Pitt Fans to flip them off.
#4 Killer golf Courses!
#3 You know you want to be there for Walt & the Panthers @ the time of their greatest achievement.
#2 You won’t have to attend the same lame New Years Eve BS get together this year if your in Tempe.

& the number one reason on why Pitt fans should make the trip to Tempe

The Utes are an over rated, weak schedule playing, want-a-be, and PITT will kick their sorry ass program back to the WAC where they belong!

Anyone else care to E-mail us with reasons to go, I’ll post them.

Now if I had the discretionary income and the indulgence of the wife, I would make the trip. I’m in no position to do so, however. I hope many, many others will.

I feel like I should do something to point out when I get to a post pertaining to basketball. We’ve kind of drowned the blog in a sea of football posts and ruminations. The patsy game tomorrow against St. Francis – PA. Game Notes are here (PDF), but there isn’t much to them. I mean if you like to see what the suggested storylines are, that’s fine.

I think that has been an oddly fascinating thing about everything being on the net. The transparency with which athletic departments provide “suggested” storylines regarding a team for writers and game commentators. Stuff that has been going on for years, usually with the fans blissfully unaware of where some of those weird storylines or stats developed, now know it before the stories are written or the games are broadcast.

With the new mix of talent, Pitt has shown more of an up-tempo game at time. This has been much to the delight of Carl Krauser. For Pitt fans, mainly me, this has to be a little disconcerting. Pitt got burned last year whenever it tried to run. The team functioned best in its half-court set offense. Why would you change what worked so well? At the same time, it only took them so far. I believe the team can do better in the NCAAs and there is a lot of new personnel that you have to adapt the situation to fit. So, for now, I will not complain about trying to fast break and the team running — just as long as they don’t let themselves get burned too often on defense.

That is part of the reason, Coach Dixon has found himself playing 3 guards — Krauser, Ronald Ramon and Yuri Demetrius at times. It has met with success so far, but it remains to be seen if it still works when the competition improves.

[Editor’s Note: Blogger was acting up a bit yesterday. I just noticed that an entire post never made it. Annoying, because I had already deleted the file from my temp folder without realizing it. Essentially reconstructed and updated.]

Darrelle Revis has had a good few days. His interception helped Pitt win the Backyard Brawl, along with an excellent punt return on his first try this year, and it looks like he may get some more opportunities. Now he has also been named to the second team Freshman All-American squad by Rivals.com.

Josh Cummings won his second Big East Special Teams Player of the Week honors for going 3 for 4 on field goals and making the lone extra point attempt.

Also worth mentioning and giving much credit and love to is Diamond Ferri of Syracuse, who won both the Offensive and Defensive Player of the Week honors in the Big East. Ferri clearly earned it in leading Syracuse over BC. And of course knocking BC out of the BCS and sending Pitt.

Pitt’s game notes are available here (PDF). Nothing really jumps out from them. They contain a painful reminder of the 2001 USF game with the box score. And of course, the “Tale of the Tape.”

PITTSBURGH ——————————— SOUTH FLORIDA
27.5 ………………………………. Points ………………………………. 25.7
355.1 ……………………….. Total Offense ……………………….. 353.4
110.3 ………………………. Rushing Yards ………………………. 192.0
38.4 ………………………. Rushing Attempts ………………………. 40.6
2.9 …………………………. Yards Per Carry …………………………. 4.7
244.8 ……………………… Passing Yardage ……………………… 161.4
34.2 ………………………. Passing Attempts ………………………. 26.9
12.9 ……………….. Yards Per Pass Completion ……………….. 12.7
23.9 ………………………… Points Allowed ………………………… 30.8
392.6 ……………………….. Total Defense ……………………….. 390.8
139.7 …………………. Rushing Yards Allowed …………………. 160.2
252.9 …………………. Passing Yards Allowed …………………. 230.6
+9 …………………………. Turnover Margin ………………………….. -7

Definitely not much of a passing team, as they average more rushing yards than in the air. Also, they seem to turn the ball over a lot.

That’s what the stories are based on Coach Harris’ press conference. One report describes it as a bull’s eye. I won’t repeat a lot of the stuff that came from the press conference. Tyrone Gilliard, though, also remembers the Bulls:

Safety Tyrone Gilliard, who was a freshman when South Florida defeated Pitt, said the Panthers plan to avenge the loss to the Bulls.

“We still owe them. I have that feeling just like the rest of the seniors,” Gilliard said. “We still hold a grudge. It was embarrassing to us the way they came up here and beat us that way. We still have a grudge and that’s why even with all the other stuff going on we’re only concentrating on South Florida because we still owe them some payback.”

Yes. Yes Pitt does. Pitt is now a 7 point favorite for this game. Back in September, USF was a 3 1/2 point favorite.

The other story based on the press conference puts it in terms of “focus.” In one of the notebook stories, it is observed how much of a run-oriented offense the Bulls are. Very true. USF has a 1000 yard rusher, but no WR with more than 430 yards.

The other not ebook story takes a theme for a post I was hoping to save, if for no other reason then the fear of jinxing things. The recruits that bailed on signing day last year.

Pitt fans should be somewhat familiar with South Florida freshman wide receiver Johnny Peyton, who leads the team in receiving yards (430) and is second on the team with 19 receptions.

Peyton, who is from Dade City, Fla., verbally committed to Pitt but reneged on his commitment during a news conference on signing day and, at the urging of his mother, signed with South Florida.

He was one of four players who left the Panthers high and dry on signing day, including local stars Andrew Johnson (Miami) and Anthony Morelli (Penn State). The other was Florida prep star Alphonso Smith, who chose Wake Forest.

Peyton is in a run-first offense where the top two- receivers have combined for 40 catches and 687 yards. Pitt’s top two receivers of Lee and DelSardo have 88 catches and 1453 yards. Think Peyton ever goes back to his mother and points that out? As for Andrew Johnson, he got into 4 games this year, touched the ball 16 times for 41 yards. I would want to say something about how he would have gotten more touches at Pitt, but after seeing how Brandon Mason was wasted this year (12 carries, 35 yards), but it seems like he may have been wasted at Pitt this year. Morelli. He would have done nothing this year, just like at Penn St.

You know, I had to go back and look at some of the posts from September and October when Pitt was getting ready to play USF. USF was picked to finish 7th in C-USA by the coaches. If they were to beat Pitt, they would finish tied for 7th with TCU. Otherwise, they will actually end the season 8th.

Finally a column from Ron Cook, who decides it was better to be lucky than good. Rant coming on, bear with me.

From the beginning, Pitt was lucky.

It was lucky Walt Harris picked quarterback Tyler Palko in an 11th-hour decision before the start of the season. Here’s a name you don’t hear much around here these days: Luke Getsy. Either Getsy is going to be a tremendous quarterback at Akron or Harris knew exactly what buttons to push to bring out the best in Palko.

Isn’t revisionist history wonderful? In the beginning of the season, Palko struggled. He was horrible against Ohio U., and it took until the second halves of both Nebraska and Furman for him to show some consistency. Why does it seem that outrageous that Getsy was right there with Palko for the job? The beat writers covering Pitt during training camp and practices even said that the two QBs didn’t seem to have a lot of separation. Palko improved as the season went along. That was part of the reason he was heavily recruited and he got the starting nod. His perceived and apparent upside/room for improvement was much higher.

Pitt was lucky its opening game at South Florida was postponed by Hurricane Frances. It didn’t want to take a young team on the road for a Labor Day game in zillion degree heat and zillion percent humidity. Now, it gets South Florida Saturday. The Panthers are playing their best football. The weather won’t be a factor.

Fine. Maybe. I’m not that wild about saying Pitt was lucky to have a hurricane blow through, destroying people’s lives and property. Actually, I’m with Coach Harris on this one. It’s kind of useless to speculate. Yes, I wouldn’t have been shocked if Pitt lost, but I also wouldn’t have been shocked with a win.

Pitt is lucky it has wonderful senior leadership. Vince Crochunis. Dan Stephens. Malcolm Postell. Tyrone Gilliard. Rob Petitti. Justin Belarski. They wouldn’t allow the Panthers to lose despite being down 17 points in the third quarter at home against Furman and 10 points in the fourth quarter at Temple, which is being thrown out of the Big East Conference for — get this — incompetence. They wanted a chance to go out as winners. They earned it.

It’s luck to have seniors that are leaders on the team? Luck to have been recruited? I don’t get this one at all. Good players and good people. To quote from The Princess Bride, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Pitt is lucky its players didn’t give up on the season early the way Harris’ mouthpiece — agent Bob LaMonte — did. After the shaky wins against Furman and Temple and losses to the worst Nebraska team in 43 years and a Connecticut team in its first season in the Big East, LaMonte blasted the Pitt administration, Pitt fans and the Pittsburgh media for unrealistic expectations. “Pitt is not a major power,” LaMonte said, unconscionably. “It is not one of the top 20 jobs in the country. There are limitations. Nobody was fighting to get Pitt into their conference during the Big East shakeup last year. They were an afterthought. They were treated like a stepchild, so it is a little delusionary to believe the program is bigger than what it really is.” You think LaMonte believed then the Panthers would have any chance of a Fiesta Bowl bid? Do you really think Harris did?

Again, if his point is only that, “Pitt is lucky its players didn’t give up on the season early,” then no it isn’t luck. That was good hard work by the coaching staff, and a credit to the players themselves who stayed focused while the fans and the media were distracted. If his point is to engage in some gratuitous Harris bashing via proxy, then it’s a different issue.

Pitt is lucky chancellor Mark Nordenberg didn’t fire Harris on the spot after LaMonte’s absurd comments. How would you feel if you were Nordenberg, had invested so much in the program and then had your coach’s knucklehead agent go public to belittle it? Tempting as dismissing Harris might have been, Nordenberg had the good sense to realize midseason coaching changes are so messy.

Firing the coach for the agent’s words. Why? To tank the season completely? To ensure that Pitt has no decent recruiting for 2005? The last time Pitt fired a coach mid-season, it was Mike Gottfried. That begot Paul Hackett, and… [involuntary shuddering]. Again, not luck.

Pitt is lucky its coaches, including Harris, kept teaching, kept pushing the players through the turmoil. Lost in all of the speculation about Harris’ future is the uncertain futures of his assistants. They did a marvelous job keeping the team on track. New tackles/tight ends coach Bill Bleil deserves special mention for helping to turn the offensive line — once a weakness — into a strength.

You mean they did their jobs, worked hard and are now in a position to keep their jobs? Why is it luck? I’d go on, but you get my point. Things now appear to have broken well for Pitt and you can ascribe some things to luck — BC and WVU imploding when it mattered, the timing of Pitt’s run this year, and the state of the Big East; but the things Cook chooses to call luck are not even close. He is wildly dismissive of the individual talents and abilities of the people who made the decisions and did the work. As near as I can tell, the point of the piece was to dismiss and deflect any substantive credit that Coach Walt Harris may deserve for this season.

You stay classy, Ron.

Where will Pitt end up?
Pitt cannot go to the Orange Bowl since they are nowhere near #1 or #2 in the BCS rankings. The Rose Bowl likely out too, since USC would automatically go if they lost this Saturday to UCLA. So it must be either the Sugar Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl.

It seems like each national sports publication that engages in bowl projections has Pitt going to the Fiesta Bowl and not the Sugar. Why?

Take a look at the actual BCS bowl selection process.

Basically, the Orange is the championship game this year, so they get #1 and #2.
The Rose has two host teams: the Big10 champion (Michigan) and the Pac10 champion (USC).
The Sugar‘s single host team is the SEC champ (Auburn or Tennessee). The Fiesta‘s single host is the Big12 champ (Oklahoma or Colorado).

When a host team is pulled out of their original spot into the Orange Bowl, then a replacement is selected from the BCS eligible teams. If all goes as expected this weekend and the BCS standings stay roughly the same, then the Rose will pick a replacement for USC (since they are higher ranked host team yanked away), then the Fiesta will replace Oklahoma. Those replacements must be among the following teams: the ACC champ (VaTech or Miami), the Big East champ (Pitt), any mid-major conference champ in the top 6 (Utah), and the next highest ranked team in the BCS rankings (California).
The Rose will no doubt pick California to replace USC.
Then the Fiesta will pick between Utah, VaTech-Miami and Pitt. Since Utah is higher ranked, and closer to Tempe, the Fiesta will likely pick Utah to replace Oklahoma.
That leaves one spot in the Sugar and one in the Fiesta. At this point, those two bowls rank their preferred teams from the remaining BCS eligible teams. All biases aside, both VaTech and Miami are preferable to Pitt for both bowls, so it is probable that both bowls would rather have the ACC champ than our Panthers. So which one “wins” in this battle?

According to the BCS web site:
Any BCS bowl game(s) still unfilled will submit a listing of its top three team selections to fill its at-large slot. Any conference champion not already placed in a bowl game must be listed among such bowl game’s first two selections. Each BCS bowl will then be given its highest available preference of teams. In a situation where two or more bowls select the same team(s) with their choices, the priority of selection goes initially to the bowl making the larger per team payment and then rotates to the other bowls not given first priority in a previous year.

So which bowl is that? The BCS site lists all bowls as paying between $14 million and $17 million. I can’t find any information payouts on any bowl web sites either.
What does “first priority” mean? Certainly the Fiesta did NOT have first priority last year, with also rans KSU and OSU playing in Tempe and producing the lowest Nielsen rating of all BCS bowls last year. The Sugar was the championship game last year, so one would think the Fiesta would get first pick between the two this year. Wouldn’t they rather have the ACC champ than lowly Pitt?

But there is also another proviso:
In certain situations, a host team for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, or Nokia Sugar Bowl may, but need not, be placed in another BCS game. Factors that are considered in making that determination include:
1. The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years.
2. Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season. 3. The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years. 4. An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

At the conclusion of these procedures, the pairings established by the BCS bowls may be adjusted by the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and interesting postseason matchups possible. The factors considered in adjusting the pairings are the same as those considered in determining whether to move a host team into a different bowl.

Factor #4 may be at work here. In fact, #4 worked to trump #2 last season, as Miami and FSU were paired in the Orange Bowl even though they played each other earlier in the season.
Would an Auburn-ACC Champ match up have greater appeal to college football fans? How about an Auburn-Utah match up? Either way, Pitt ends up in the Fiesta Bowl by that measure, unless Auburn is also pulled to the Fiesta (which is unlikely).

It seems the only way for Pitt to play in the Sugar, which is my preference, is if the Fiesta somehow puts its foot down and demands the better team between Pitt and the ACC champ.

Or…
one or more of the top teams loses on Saturday.

If USC loses to UCLA, but OU and Auburn win – that puts USC in the Rose, Auburn and OU in the Orange, and California (or Texas, if they jump) an at-large team that is VERY attractive to the Fiesta bowl to host – more so than Utah, Pitt or the ACC Champ; Auburn would go to the Orange, perhaps setting up a Pitt v. old Big East rival in the Sugar? One can only dream…

If Auburn loses (and OU wins), then Tennessee is the host of the Sugar; Cal could be out of the BCS, with Auburn possibly going to the Rose since they get first pick (Pitt could still end up in the Fiesta); Auburn could fall below Cal and thus be out themselves, leaving the Sugar as weak a match up as the Fiesta and thus no overriding football reason to take the Fiesta’s pick away from them (Pitt could go to the Sugar).

If OU loses (and Auburn wins), then Colorado goes to the Fiesta as the host, Auburn goes to the Orange, and OU would likely replace Auburn as the host of the Sugar – Pitt probably goes to the Fiesta, unless the Rose does something crazy like pick OU to replace USC – thus the Sugar may go after Cal or Utah, which again begs the question why shift teams around in the interests of college football?

If OU loses AND Auburn loses, OU may still be in the top 2, which means they still go to the Orange; Tennessee to host the Sugar, Colorado to host the Fiesta; either Cal or Auburn go out depending on how far Auburn falls; if Cal goes out, then Auburn to the Rose; if Cal ends up #2 because both OU and Auburn dropped below them, then the Rose could take OU or Auburn, OU, or possibly Texas, if OU and Auburn drop enough (hell, maybe even Utah!).

If all top three teams lose, then it’s a cluster: the computers will have to somehow pick the top 2 from between USC, OU, Auburn, Cal and possibly Texas and Utah (since schedule strengths would be altered due to the wins and losses on Saturday). Still, Pitt and the ACC champ would await, as well as Michigan, Colorado and Tennessee. None of the latter teams can make the Orange, so with USC still in the Rose if it’s not in #1 or #2, it will still be between the Fiesta and Sugar for Pitt – with the same factors at work.

Ugh…my brain hurts from all that hypothesizing. Right now, I’m rooting for the Bruins.

My updated projections:
Orange: USC v. Oklahoma
Rose: Michigan v. California
Sugar: Auburn v. VaTech
Fiesta: Utah v. Pitt

If dreams come true and UCLA beats USC, with Auburn and OU winning:
Orange: Oklahoma v. Auburn
Rose: USC v. Michigan
Sugar: Pitt v. VaTech
Fiesta: Utah v. California