As the Syracuse-BC game approaches, thoughts turn to what bowl Pitt will be assigned, and what factors influence that decision.
Here is what we know:
If BC wins, they win the conference and go to a BCS Bowl.
If BC loses, Pitt most likely goes to the BCS, provided it beats USF next week.
If BC loses, and Pitt loses to USF, then WVU will likely be the BCS team.
Which BCS game? This year, the Orange gets the #1 and #2 teams.
The Fiesta gets the Big12 champ (if not in the Orange), the Sugar gets the SEC champ (if not in the Orange) and the Rose gets the Big10 and Pac-10 champs (again, if not in the Orange). The Big East and ACC champs, as well as 2 at-large teams, are among those eligible to be selected to fill out the remaining spots.
Pac-10: USC is the champ, and currently #1 in the BCS – likely an Orange Bowl team, unless they lose to ND on Saturday, which would probably land them in the Rose…but, if both Oklahoma and Auburn lose their championship games, and USC, Auburn or OU drops below California in the BCS rankings – then Cal goes to the Orange as an at-large #1 or #2 team, USC still goes to the Rose as the Pac-10 champ.
Big10: Michigan is on their way to the Rose Bowl.
ACC: if VaTech beats UVa, then VaTech is in the BCS. If UVa wins, then a complex tie-breaker kicks in (like the BigEast), which puts Miami as the likely BCS team.
Big12: Oklahoma is the favorite to win the championship game over Iowa State (if they beat Missouri on Saturday) or Colorado. If either of those two teams beat OU, then they get the automatic bid and would go to the Fiesta, but OU still would likely be an at-large selection.
SEC: Auburn is favored over Tennessee. If Tennessee beats Auburn, then the Vols go to the Sugar, with Auburn possibly being an at-large team.
At-large: Teams such as Boise State, California, Georgia, Louisville, Texas and Utah are still eligible for a BCS bid, provided some things go their way in the next two weeks. Cal is almost guaranteed a spot, and if Texas beats Texas A&M, they will likely go. Utah is rooting for A&M, and for the favorites to win the conference championship games.
Likely Scenario:
As of 4:30 pm on Friday:
Orange: USC v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: Texas (or Utah) v. Virginia Tech
Rose: Michigan v. California
Sugar: Auburn v. Pitt (or BC)
It’s pretty complicated, but after the Orange makes it’s selections, then the Rose and Fiesta would pick replacements for losing their “host” teams that are going to the Orange (and they can’t pick Auburn, since they are a host team of the Sugar).
Then the unfilled spots are filled by the bowl committees ranking their top three picks, with the requirement that conference champs of the ACC and Big East be in the top two. They get their top pick, unless another bowl picks the same team, then the bowl with the larger payout gets their pick. This year, teh Sugar is at the bottom of the totem pole, so the Fiesta would get the priority.
Since the Fiesta would get to pick their replacement, they would likely pick Texas or Utah (both potential at-large teams) due to proximity and potential of travelling fans. The Rose would naturally pick California to ensure a Big10-Pac10 match. Then, the Fiesta would pick between the ACC and Big East champs, and VaTech will no doubt travel better than either Pitt, BC, WVU or Syracuse. Surely the Sugar would want a southern team like VaTech, but it appears the Fiesta gets to go first. So Pitt to the Sugar!
Granted, this is still subject to everything falling into place…
What if Pitt doesn’t go to the BCS?
Then the Gator picks between the top teams in the Big East and Notre Dame. Only if ND beats USC could they end up in the Gator: WVU, and possibly Pitt would be 8-3, with ND finishing 7-4 if they beat the Trojans. There is a one-win rule, meaning the Bowl can pick the team that is not the highest ranked only if the lower ranked team is within one win of the higher ranked team. When comparing a BigEast team to ND, overall records are used (when comparing two BigEast teams, conference records are used).
Thus, if USC beats ND, then WVU and Pitt (if they beat USF) will be two wins higher than the 6-5 Irish. We must root for USC to beat ND.
A pick between Pitt and WVU would be difficult, but the edge would probably be with the Hoopies, since they are closer and Pitt hasn’t travelled well in the last couple of bowl games.
The Insight picks next, and the same rules apply: if ND loses to USC, then the team the Gator passed on would automatically go to the Insight. Pitt probably ends up here, provided we beat USF. If not, then ND goes to Phoenix.
The Tire Bowl, in Charlotte, picks last. We will end up here if we lose to USF.
