As the Syracuse-BC game approaches, thoughts turn to what bowl Pitt will be assigned, and what factors influence that decision.
Here is what we know:
If BC wins, they win the conference and go to a BCS Bowl.
If BC loses, Pitt most likely goes to the BCS, provided it beats USF next week.
If BC loses, and Pitt loses to USF, then WVU will likely be the BCS team.

Which BCS game? This year, the Orange gets the #1 and #2 teams.
The Fiesta gets the Big12 champ (if not in the Orange), the Sugar gets the SEC champ (if not in the Orange) and the Rose gets the Big10 and Pac-10 champs (again, if not in the Orange). The Big East and ACC champs, as well as 2 at-large teams, are among those eligible to be selected to fill out the remaining spots.

Pac-10: USC is the champ, and currently #1 in the BCS – likely an Orange Bowl team, unless they lose to ND on Saturday, which would probably land them in the Rose…but, if both Oklahoma and Auburn lose their championship games, and USC, Auburn or OU drops below California in the BCS rankings – then Cal goes to the Orange as an at-large #1 or #2 team, USC still goes to the Rose as the Pac-10 champ.
Big10: Michigan is on their way to the Rose Bowl.
ACC: if VaTech beats UVa, then VaTech is in the BCS. If UVa wins, then a complex tie-breaker kicks in (like the BigEast), which puts Miami as the likely BCS team.
Big12: Oklahoma is the favorite to win the championship game over Iowa State (if they beat Missouri on Saturday) or Colorado. If either of those two teams beat OU, then they get the automatic bid and would go to the Fiesta, but OU still would likely be an at-large selection.
SEC: Auburn is favored over Tennessee. If Tennessee beats Auburn, then the Vols go to the Sugar, with Auburn possibly being an at-large team.
At-large: Teams such as Boise State, California, Georgia, Louisville, Texas and Utah are still eligible for a BCS bid, provided some things go their way in the next two weeks. Cal is almost guaranteed a spot, and if Texas beats Texas A&M, they will likely go. Utah is rooting for A&M, and for the favorites to win the conference championship games.

Likely Scenario:
As of 4:30 pm on Friday:
Orange: USC v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: Texas (or Utah) v. Virginia Tech
Rose: Michigan v. California
Sugar: Auburn v. Pitt (or BC)

It’s pretty complicated, but after the Orange makes it’s selections, then the Rose and Fiesta would pick replacements for losing their “host” teams that are going to the Orange (and they can’t pick Auburn, since they are a host team of the Sugar).

Then the unfilled spots are filled by the bowl committees ranking their top three picks, with the requirement that conference champs of the ACC and Big East be in the top two. They get their top pick, unless another bowl picks the same team, then the bowl with the larger payout gets their pick. This year, teh Sugar is at the bottom of the totem pole, so the Fiesta would get the priority.

Since the Fiesta would get to pick their replacement, they would likely pick Texas or Utah (both potential at-large teams) due to proximity and potential of travelling fans. The Rose would naturally pick California to ensure a Big10-Pac10 match. Then, the Fiesta would pick between the ACC and Big East champs, and VaTech will no doubt travel better than either Pitt, BC, WVU or Syracuse. Surely the Sugar would want a southern team like VaTech, but it appears the Fiesta gets to go first. So Pitt to the Sugar!

Granted, this is still subject to everything falling into place…

What if Pitt doesn’t go to the BCS?
Then the Gator picks between the top teams in the Big East and Notre Dame. Only if ND beats USC could they end up in the Gator: WVU, and possibly Pitt would be 8-3, with ND finishing 7-4 if they beat the Trojans. There is a one-win rule, meaning the Bowl can pick the team that is not the highest ranked only if the lower ranked team is within one win of the higher ranked team. When comparing a BigEast team to ND, overall records are used (when comparing two BigEast teams, conference records are used).
Thus, if USC beats ND, then WVU and Pitt (if they beat USF) will be two wins higher than the 6-5 Irish. We must root for USC to beat ND.
A pick between Pitt and WVU would be difficult, but the edge would probably be with the Hoopies, since they are closer and Pitt hasn’t travelled well in the last couple of bowl games.

The Insight picks next, and the same rules apply: if ND loses to USC, then the team the Gator passed on would automatically go to the Insight. Pitt probably ends up here, provided we beat USF. If not, then ND goes to Phoenix.

The Tire Bowl, in Charlotte, picks last. We will end up here if we lose to USF.

First things first — I know I wussed out and left at halftime, but at least I have a real excuse (one that doesn’t involve meteorlogical conditions on the Allegheny Ridge, Lee). The excuse: my six-week-old son (whose mother went into labor a couple hours after the BC game). I haven’t had a full night’s sleep in five weeks. And anyway, by bolting just as the 2nd quarter clock ran down, I made it to my in-laws by the start of the 3rd and enjoyed the fantastic second half in front of a warm fire with a big plate of Thanksgiving leftovers. A great night.

Maybe it’s because I spent this season in Morgantown, but I didn’t feel that much surprise last night. The Mountaineers have been off-track for quite a while now, and at the same time that Pitt has been looking up. The sloppiness and lack of discipline have been on display for quite a while, and the Henry situation has been a major story/distraction around here ever since he was ejected from the WVU-Rutgers game a couple weeks ago.

By the way, Coach Rodriguez gave my favorite quote of the year when, after that Rutgers game, he was asked if he would bench Henry for getting ejected and giving the Rutgers fans the finger: “As a coach, you wish he would be disciplined, but who else do you have that makes that play?” Rodriguez took a lot of heat for his lack of team discipline after that, but his comment proved to be correct when he did bench Henry yesterday and discovered that yes, in fact, nobody else could make the necessary catch. You have to love the lack of coaching-cliche spin in that quote, though — I’ll play him, no matter how much of a thug he is, because he gives us a chance to win.

But then Rodriguez had to go and counteract his own savvy by benching Henry for “unspecified violations.” Wonder how he and the rest of the Mountaineer faithful (including those a-holes who set up a sound system in our parking lot, blasting the rest of us with country music and periodic chants of “eat s—, Pitt!”) feel about Rod’s tough attitude now?

Anyway, I haven’t enjoyed a game so much in a long time. Go Orange!

Admit it. When WVU QB Rasheed Marshall completed a 4th and 6 pass for 15 yards, after the Pitt should have intercepted it the previous play on the final drive, you were not thinking positive thoughts. If you were like me, you were hoping at best to hold them to a field goal. But not this time. This time Pitt didn’t give it up at the end. The defense let them get just outside of a long field goal attempt before coming up with the stop.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Box score here.

Thanksgiving with the wife’s family. Divorce means two meals and not being in the right place as game time nears. Force an early escape from her father’s so we can get back to her mother’s (where we are staying) so I can settle in to watch the game. Barely get upstairs with the notebook in hand in time to turn on the TV as the ESPN intro begins. The crew — Mike Tirico, Kirk Herbstriet and Lee Corso — tell me something Pat, Shawn and John (who made it to the game) told me before the game. It’s frickin’ cold.

Herbstriet and Corso both agree that it will be up to the quarterbacks and whether the defense can stop them. A kick back to the studio with Rece Davis, Trev Alberts and Mark May. In May’s time at Pitt, his team was 4-0 with an average score of 40-10. Mark May echoes earlier comments from Rob Petitti by saying “I didn’t like the West Virginia fans.” Alberts says Pitt has to stop the WVU run, and then picks Pitt. Crap. Cut to commercial and I run back downstairs for my bourbon. Toy briefly with the idea of taking the whole bottle with me, but decide that might look bad to the inlaws.

West Virginia starts with the ball. The get to about midfield before they are stopped. Looked like they were looking for the soft spots in Pitt’s line in the first series. They have to punt, and it only gets to the 21 yard line.

Pitt comes out running. Ray Kirkley follows Tim Murhpy (in the fullback position) for 10 yards. The Hoopies appeared to have been caught off guard. Expecting Pitt to throw first it seemed. Setting what would be an early tone, WVU then goes offside to make it 1st and 5. A quick pass to Greg Lee is an inch short of the 1st down. Kirkley gets the 1st. Palko drops to pass on 1st down, but pulls it down quickly and runs for 5 yards. Kirkley again, but is tripped as he runs for only a yard. Palko shook off the rush to roll out and thow the ball away on 3rd down. Pitt has to punt. Graessle, though is run into by a Mountaineer as he took an offcenter snap and was trying to kick for a sideline. The 5 yard penalty gives Pitt a first down (Corso questions whether Graessle was trying to be hit, but Herbstriet pointed out the bad snap and the angled kick).

Unfortunately, Pitt did nothing. Kirkley got 2 yards, then an incomplete pass over the middle. Receiver was hit just as the ball got there. Looked close to interference, but rather than see a replay, we got Palko highlights against ND. A screen to Murphy was incomplete as Palko threw a little too far in front of him — just off his finger tips. Pitt punts and it goes for a touchback.

During the series, the ESPN crew talks about the bad field conditions. Seems the high school playoff games played on the field in the last week or so has really ripped up the field.

Bothered that Pitt didn’t try anything for more than 10 yards. There wasn’t much attempt to stretch the field vertically. Almost like they were trying to play a short WVU-like offense. Worrisome if Pitt does that. Don’t outthink yourself, Walt.

In less than 2 minutes WVU scores. A rollout pass for 15 yards that surprised Pitt seemed to put the defense off the line a bit more. WVU had some quick runs and another pass that went for 26. Would have only been 10, but poor tackling allowed for 16 more yards after the catch. Colson for WVU ran the ball well in the drive and took it in for the score. WVU’s leading rusher Kay-Jay Harris hasn’t been seen yet. He must still be hurt. Colson seems like a solid fill-in. 7-0 WVU

Pitt starts from their own 21 after the kickoff. Murphy runs 3 straight times for 3, 11 and 1 yards. A short outlet pass to Kellen Campbell, the fullback, for 5 yards sets up a 3rd and 4. Palko dropped back, and WVU just got pressure right away. Palko tried to scramble away but was sacked for an 8 yard loss. Pitt also flagged for holding, declined, time to punt.

Apparently the punting unit for Pitt decided it was sick of WVU getting all the press for bad special teams. A late snap that was way offline. Graessle barely snagged it, but the punt was partially blocked by a Pitt player who was being driven back into the Punter. WVU ends up with the ball on the 17. Net -16 yard punt.

Harris for WVU out there finally. Gets the ball on a poorly executed reverse and loses 3 yards. Then Rasheed Marshall drops to pass and manages to get sacked for -4 yards. Harris gets the ball on a pass over the middle for 15 yards. He would have had the first down, but lost footing and slipped. WVU lines up for the fieldgoal, and Herbstriet questions why WVU isn’t going for it considering how well they were running with Colson. I have to agree. That series was just a classic example of a coach out thinking himself. WVU never gave itself a chance to do what it does best, and Pitt does worst — just run the ball. Fieldgoal is good. 10-0 WVU and Pitt should be happy about that.

Pitt puts together a nice answer to the WVU drive, with a 38 yard pass downfield to Greg Lee off of play action. Unfortunately the 1st quarter ends, WVU regroups and shuts Pitt down. Pitt settles for a 37 yard field goal. 10-3 WVU

Pitt continues to show why everyone was focusing on the wrong team regarding bad special teams by kicking off out of bounds allowing WVU to start at the 35. They show some numbers and Rasheed Marshall has 90 of 110 total yards for WVU. WVU, though, goes 3 and out — barely. A short 4 yard pass to Pennington on 2nd and 8, and Darrelle Revis missed the tackle allowing Pennington to get 3 more yards. Pitt is not tackling well.

WVU gets an acceptable punt of roughly 35 yards. Allen Richardson takes the ball at the 22 and busts it for all of 3 yards. Bad, bad, bad return. Leading Tirico to say, “This is just an awful punt return team.” Yep.

As they come out of the TV time out, the Pitt Dance Team is performing wearing black tights and white Pitt jerseys. I would prefer more formfitting attire overall. But that may just be me.

Palko impresses and disappoints. He has a great scramble on 3rd and 6 for 15 yards, including a leap over a diving Pac-Man Jones. Then on the very next play he makes a bad decision and pass attempt to TE Eric Gill that was tipped by one WVU defender and intercepted by another. The replays showed 3 WVU jerseys around Gill.

WVU goes 3 and out, though. Harris is stopped in the backfield for a loss of 2. He just isn’t right. Not getting a burst or able to cut like Colson was. Again, WVU passes two times in a row and gives up the ball. What are they thinking?

Pitt takes advantage. On 1st and 10, Murphy rips off a 37 yard run straight up the middle, through — through a hole. A gaping wide, offensive line generated hole. Pitt does the right thing, and has Palko go up top to Lee for the kill. Unfortunately, the defender Mims was able to make a last minute leap to knock away the TD. Herbstriet, though, notes that Lee slowed down too soon for the ball allowing Mims to catch-up and make a play. A screen to Furman goes for 15 and then nothing. Pitt has to settle for a 35 yard field goal — not a good kick, but it went through — 10-6 WVU.

WVU seems to finally remember that they can run the ball. They run a nearly 4 minute drive, that stalls out at the 27 when WVU gets too cute with pass attempts again. The 44 yard FG to the open end of the stadium misses. Still 10-6 WVU.

Pitt goes 3 and out. Palko’s throws are offline.

WVU takes over on their 30 and another WVU running back, Pernell Williams runs for 19 yards. Colson for 6. Marshall scrambles for 5. Williams for 13 through a big hole again. So, Pitt is on their heels. They have been run over for 4 straight plays and 43 yards, and WVU takes a time out??? The ESPN booth is stupified, and so am I.

The next play WIlliams is stopped for a 4 yard loss, but then Marshall runs for 18 yards. Maybe it didn’t matter. WVU now at the Pitt 15. The snap, though, is fumbled. Marshall falls on it for -2 yards. Marshall drops to pass, but has to throw it away. On 3rd and 12, they just run up the middle for 2 yards and call time out with 2 seconds left.

The field goal attmpt was no good. I didn’t see it on the play, but according to the play-by-play, Terrell Allen got a hand on it to partially block the 31 yarder. Not so sure. It just looked like he shanked it badly.

Halftime and Pitt is lucky to be down only 10-6.

Jill Arrington talks to coach Walt Harris and Harris talks about the team needing to relax a bit (presumably he means the offense). He actually says that they were “too giddy.”

Pitt gets the ball to start the second half. Poor return from the 3 to only the 16 by Furman. Pitt should have gone 3 and out. The first play was a deep pass to Greg Lee that went through his hands. Murphy ran for 2 and then another incomplete. On the punt, though, WVU got a 15 yard personal foul for roughing the kicker. I’ll admit it. Bad call. At best running into the kicker for 5, which wouldn’t have been enough for the first down.

Pitt looks like it won’t do anything with it, but off the play action, Palko hits Lee for 29 yards. Lee beat Mims again. Why is Mims covering Lee. Why isn’t their best defender, Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, on Pitt’s best receiver? I’m not complaining, I’m just wondering. The reception takes Lee over 1000 receiving yards for the season.

Murphy runs for 4 yards two plays in a row, but on the second one, add another 15 yards for a personal foul facemask penalty. That one wasn’t debatable. Murphy for 5 then 4 yards on carries. Then Pitt takes a timeout? With 10:01 left in the 3rd quarter. On 3rd and 1 from the 2 yard line. Why? Murphy is running straight ahead and well. You shouldn’t pass with Palko being off on his passes tonight.

So, of course a bullet pass to Darrelle Strong, the freshman converted to WR from QB then TE. The pass was just too hard, too close and bounces off of him incomplete. It looked like he never had a chance to get his hands up for it. Settle for a FG. 10-9 WVU

WVU gets the ball with excellent field position. The kickoff only got to the 36, returned to the 43. WVU looks like it is really starting to wear down the Pitt defense. Mixing good runs with some nice medium distance passing. Even Harris runs for 10 yards, though the ESPN crew points out a blatant hold by WVU WR Miquelle Henderson. WVU is knocking on the door with 1st and goal from the 3. Williams loses a yard, but then WVU is flagge for a personal foul — not identified as who did what, and once again, no replay to see what happened. WVU now has 1st and goal from the 18. The Pitt Defense actually rises on this occasion to stop them. WVU now using a new kicker makes the 31 yarder. 13-9 WVU

Neither team does much for the rest of the 3rd quarter. Rasheed Marshall makes his first costly mistake when H.B. Blades intercepts the ball and Pitt takes over at the WVU 40. Unfortuately Pitt goes 3 and out. Graessle, though, pins WVU on the 3 yard line with a perfect punt.

WVU goes 3 and out to start the 4th quarter. WVU’s punt is way short, and Revis fields it at the WVU 39 and takes it 19 yards. And Pitt goes 3 and out. Josh Cummings 35 yard field goal into the open end of the stadium is no good (after the 40 yard attempt made it, but was waved off because WVU was offsides). Still 13-9.

WVU takes over and goes backwards with a false start and a sack when Marshall keeps on the option. On 3rd and 17, Marshall at least helps for field position by scrambling for 13 yards. WVU fake punts. Perfectly. A ballsy call. Then WVU commits another false start penalty (9 for 81 at this point). 2 plays later, Revis comes up with an interception.

Pitt ball from their own 27. 10:08 left in the game. Pitt uses its second timeout. What? Well, apparently Coach Harris knew what he was doing. Palko just suddenly found his game. Scary drive, though. The bad reverse to have Strong throw a flea flicker was one of the worst attempts ever. Palko converted 4 straight 3rd down passes (Lee appeared to have trapped one, but hey). The last 3 3rd down passes were all to Greg Lee. The most impressive was a 15 yard strike in the face of the blitz as the left-hander had a paw on his right shoulder.

Pitt had 1st and goal from the 10. A scary pass to TE Gill in the endzone. 3 or 4 WVU defenders around him, but none of them even looked for the ball as Gill was dragged down. Blatant pass interference. 1st and goal from the 2. An incomplete pass to Lee, then Palko keeps and runs it in clean for the score. Extra point is good.

16-13 Pitt.

A 6+ minute drive of 73 yards. Palko was 6-10 for 55 yards plus another 7 yards running.

WVU still had 4:06, and a field goal was all they needed to tie it.

Finally a decent kickoff and WVU started from their 26. WVU looked out of sorts. Not prepared to play from behind in the 2 minute drill. On 3rd and 6, Marshall got flushed and threw along the sideline — right at a Pitt defender (I didn’t see who) that had the ball bounce off his numbers. Ugh. 4th and 6, they have to go for it. Complete! Right over the middle for 15 yards to Joe Hunter. His first catch all year! This drive was all on Marshall. Either passing or running. He got them to the Pitt 32 on 3rd and 5.

WVU then runs a double reverse with Dwayne Thompson — back-up QB, filling in at WR for the game — throwing a deep pass to (who else) Marshall. He was covered, but it still hit his fingers before falling incomplete. Phew!

WVU calls TO with 55 seconds left. They try to pass downfield and it falls incomplete. Pitt Takes over on downs!!

Palko runs for 13 yards on the first play to ice it. WVU calls its obligatory remaining timeouts, but it doesn’t matter! Pitt Wins!!! PITT WINS!!!!!

This was the kind of game Pitt doesn’t win. A team about equal, maybe a little better, but Pitt just doesn’t do it. This time they do. They broke through for the second straight game. Something they have never done under Coach Harris before. This was huge.

Yes WVU clearly gakked the season and the game. Coach Rodriguez got too cute at times. He got too far away from the run. Yes they ran 49 times for 213 yards, but they threw 27 times. Just too much for the Hoopies. It has to be better than 2-1 for them, not close to 2-1.

Pitt didn’t make crucial mistakes. Only 1 turnover. The Defense was just good enough. I do not feel the same effusive praise I heard from the ESPN crew for the job by Paul Rhodes. I just don’t understand the raving everyone gives about Rhodes. He must have a fantastic personality and be a great interview, because he has managed to escape being tarred for the poor job of the Pitt D the entire year. I have not seen substantial improvements over last year, nor during the course of the year.

Still, enough with the negative. This was huge. Harris got an ice bath at the end. His postgame interview was high comedy as he desparately ran through a series of cliches: Great game; fought hard by both sides; Proud of the way the team came through; Finally got it done. And then Jill Arrington asked him who he was rooting for in the Syracuse-BC game, and Harris let a little of the emotion leak out when he practically screamed, “Go Paul!”

Hopefully, more later.