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November 25, 2004

Everyone is picking Pitt. It started as a little trickle. But I keep finding more and more predictions going to Pitt.

Why West Virginia might win: Pittsburgh has admittedly been distracted all week about talk of head coach Walt Harris being fired. Will the lack of focus prove costly in one of the biggest games of the year? The Panther pass defense has been lousy all season long currently last in the Big East allowing 265 yards per game. West Virginia is all about running the ball with a passing attack that rolls up the fewest amount of yards in the league, but Rasheed Marshall can be effective as the Mountaineers lead the league, and are tenth in the nation, in pass efficiency.
Why Pittsburgh might win: As good as West Virginia might be, it hasn’t been all that impressive on the road losing to Virginia Tech and struggling a bit too much against Rutgers. Pittsburgh’s run defense isn’t a brick wall, but it’s strong enough to keep the Mountaineer machine in check with a surprisingly decent front seven that doesn’t generate much pressure. However, it makes plays against good running teams.

What will happen: This is a nearly dead-even battle which will come down to the West Virginia ground game vs. the Pittsburgh passing attack. At home and with more fire after a week of dealing with rumors about its head coach, Pittsburgh will come away with a close win.
Must See Rating: (5 lock yourself in a room to watch – 1 Home movies with the family) … 3.5
Line: West Virginia -4
Fearless Prediction: Pittsburgh 34 … West Virginia 30

Then Scouts Inc./ESPN.com does a similar evaluation:

When West Virginia has the ball: The Pittsburgh defense has risen to the challenge in big games recently. It will need another strong performance against a versatile Mountaineers’ rushing attack that averages 258 yards per game. QB Rasheed Marshall triggers a spread offense that uses a lot of read options, with the quarterback and running back adjacent to one another in the shotgun. RB Kay-Jay Harris rushed for 112 yards on 19 carries, and he should be as healthy as he’s been all season following the week off. The Mountaineers’ passing attack already ranks last in the conference in terms of yards per game. The suspension of star WR Chris Henry, who was responsible for 811 of the team’s 1,657 total passing yards, won’t help matters. That’s a huge break for a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 109th nationally, allowing 264 passing yards per game. Without Henry to worry about vertically, SS Tyrone Gilliard can become much more involved near the line of scrimmage to keep Marshall and Harris in check.
When Pittsburgh has the ball: QB Tyler Palko has emerged as one of the most dangerous passers in the nation. After getting off to a slow start as a first-year starter, Palko has thrown for 994 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception in the team’s last three games. Palko’s top two receivers, Joe DelSardo and Greg Lee, continue to improve with each start. DC Adam “Pac Man” Jones has the man-to-man coverage skills to take one of the two out of the game, but the other receiver will create matchup problems against DC Anthony Mimms, who has struggled with his consistency this season. The Panthers have all but aborted their running game and will look to simply spread the field with multiple receiver sets. If the Panthers’ improving offensive line can keep the Mountaineers’ pass rush at bay, Palko can pick this defense apart.
Bottom line: The 97th meeting of the “Backyard Brawl” features two teams headed in opposite directions. West Virginia has failed to live up to expectations. It is coming off a demoralizing defeat to Boston College, and Henry has since been suspended. Pittsburgh rebounded from a slow start and has won four of its last five games. With Palko leading the charge against an inconsistent Mountaineers’ defense, West Virginia simply doesn’t match up well enough to beat a surging Pittsburgh team at Heinz Field.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, West Virginia 27

Now I know you may be sick of reading about my worries of Pitt being in control of its own destiny being bad, but it makes me even more nervous when everyone is picking Pitt for the upset. Especially after last year’s post-Thanksgiving debacle where eveyone expected the upset.

If Pitt can avoid repeating history, I will happily be on the bandwagon to bring back Walt.





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