[Blogger went down again, but I saved this post from last night.]

Damned if I know, but there is going to be a lot of pointless speculation for the next week and a half.

The big speculation will be regarding Coach Walt Harris. Look, it is no question a big, important win for him and the program. It is the one of the few times a Pitt team under Harris has won a game they weren’t expected to win (not counting Virginia Tech the last 3 years). Usually Pitt has, at best, just played a game close but still loses — like at Miami 2 years ago.

So, yes, ND is not a great team, but this is the first time Pitt has one in South Bend in almost 20 years. It is only the second win over ND in the Walt Harris era. There will be plenty of people looking to denigrate this win. You have to expect that. Just as they would have denigrated a win over Nebraska if it had happened. Doesn’t matter. This was a big win. A great win for Pitt.

Getting back to Harris. Right now, it just means he has a little breathing room. Fact is, though, he still has to win. Pitt is now 6-3. They technically have a shot at the BCS bowl, with help from Syracuse if they can beat BC, but realistically it is at best the Gator Bowl or the Insight Bowl.

It comes down to the Backyard Brawl (and then winning that make-up game in Tampa against South Florida). Pitt, under Harris, is 3-4 against WVU. The last win came in 2001. WVU is coming off a bad loss at home to BC. They will be pissed. Much the way Pitt couldn’t handle the expectations placed on it last year, the Mountaineers have spit the bit twice this season. They are definitely beatable by Pitt, but the match-ups tend to favor WVU a bit. They also have extra time to prepare and WVU under Rodriguez is 2-1 against Pitt.

Now even if Pitt loses to WVU but wins against USF and wins their bowl game. Pitt would end the season 8-4. You almost have to say that Harris earned another year, but it isn’t that simple. He would also be looking for an extension. Pitt couldn’t delay that decision any longer. It would have to be at least a 2 year extension, but maybe a 4 year. Not sure how common option years are in college coaching contracts, but any extension for Harris practically screams for those.

This was a rebuilding year, and the team has visibly improved from the start of the season on offense. Yes the Temple and Furman games were ugly, but they were wins. Big wins over BC and ND.

The negatives — the defense has shown no signs of improvement. In some ways, it seems to be getting worse (reality is that as the competition has improved it has exposed the D more). Disturbingly hard times winning against Furman and Temple. Bad losses to Syracuse and UConn — the “slide right” call still burns. Appears to have alienated the local coaches and hurting for recruiting.

In Walt Harris’ tenure at Pitt this is his record by year (PDF, page 228), and how close to expectations

1997: 6-6 — far exceeded expectations, same team that went 4-7 the year before beat Miami and WVU
1998: 2-9 — met expectations, what talent there was graduated; a very bad team
1999: 5-6 — met expectations, the team improved; minor disappointment of not beating WVU at end of season to get bowl eligible
2000: 7-5 — met expectations, more steady improvement; beat Penn State; lost Insight.com Bowl to Iowa St.
2001: 7-5 — did not meet expectations; expected to be 2nd or 3rd in Big East, and ranked; lost 5 straight games including to USF; recovered after junking the spread offense (Walt Harris overdoing the tinkering on offense)
2002: 9-4 — slightly exceeded expectations; 4 losses by a total of 24 points. Beat the teams it was supposed to, lost to teams it was supposed to — excepting the beating of VT and losing to WVU, a wash.
2003: 8-5 — well below expectations; Pre-season top 20. Popular dark horse BCS team. Cracked the top 10, then crashed hard. The senior heavy defense collapsed. Could not win meaningful games (excepting for VT); ended year losing 3 of 4.

This year, Pitt is 6-3. The big wins over BC and ND are offset by the bad losses to UConn and Syracuse. You can make a really good case that Coach Walt Harris’ tenure as Pitt head coach comes down to the Backyard Brawl in a week and a half. Pretty much as Paul Zeise called it at the end of October.