I know. I’m setting myself up for even greater disappointment. Everything all but screams a Pitt loss. Hell, I picked them to lose yesterday. I know better. Still when it’s Saturday, and I’m trying to figure out a way to avoid clearing out the rain gutters, I start constructing scenarios in my head of a Pitt upset. What can I do? Pitt’s my team. So what if the line is ND -11 1/2.

Let’s start with some obvious game analysis for Pitt to have a chance.

To win today, the Panthers will have to do two things that they didn’t do in a loss to Syracuse last week — and they failed miserably at last year when they faced Notre Dame: Run the football and stop the Irish from running the football.

It sounds simple, but both tasks have been difficult in recent weeks.

The past two games, Pitt has averaged only 90 yards rushing and, perhaps more telling, just 2.3 yards per carry. The Panthers have not had a running back rush for more than 90 yards since the Furman game in the third week of the season when Ray Kirkley ran for 108 yards.

Running the football is important on two fronts — it helps the Panthers control the clock and keeps its defense fresh, and it also helps slow down the Irish’s formidable pass rush. Last year against Notre Dame, the Panthers ran for 8 yards on 27 carries, which enabled the Irish to rush quarterback Rod Rutherford mercilessly and sack him eight times.

The run game is only half the equation, however. The Panthers can win if they get their passing game going. In fact, if the Panthers can run enough to keep the Irish honest, quarterback Tyler Palko and his receivers could have a big game because, unlike last year when the Irish had one of the best secondaries around, the Irish are vulnerable against the pass.
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Defensively the Panthers looked very ordinary last week in allowing the Orange to run 52 times for 239 yards. Players indicated that the problem wasn’t that the Panthers were getting physically dominated up front — as was the case last year against Notre Dame — but rather it was a number of breakdowns and missed assignments.

It may be true about the defense, but we heard that excuse a lot last year, so I’m skeptical.

One thing that could help Pitt, is if ND happens to be looking past them to the game with USC in two weeks. ND says that won’t happen. I have trouble believing that as well. They have a bye after Pitt, so it’s not like they would be looking that far forward. Especially in their home finale. Senior day. A win for ND would just about lock up the Gator Bowl for them. Even if BC were to pull the upset over WVU.

As for the Pitt defense, they know the pressure will be on them to be better than last year and last week.

Go ahead and laugh at the Pitt defense. Crack jokes about how Notre Dame made it look like a second-tier pee-wee outfit last year.

Sophomore linebacker H.B. Blades encourages it.

“What can we really say?” said Blades, who seeks redemption at 2:30 today when the Panthers (5-3) face the Irish (6-3) at Notre Dame Stadium on Senior Day. “The numbers don’t lie.”
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“I know people made fun of us for the way we played – we all heard it,” Blades said. “I’ll say it right now: That was horrible.”

And painful.

“We have a lot of pride, and it was taken away,” Blades said. “It’s payback time now. We have to get our respect back.”

Well, there’s the talk. It’s almost time for the walk. Of course, H.B. Blades had plenty to say about some of the critics.

Pitt sophomore linebacker H.B. Blades hopes the Panthers can pull off an upset at Notre Dame today for a number of reasons, not the least of which is to silence recent critic and Pitt alum Mark May of ESPN. “He’s clowning us all the time,” Blades said. “But he wants us to win and it just motivates us to do better.” May has seen the program stagnate in recent years and Blades wants to change all of that. “It hurts when an alumnus is dogging us like that. We have to go out and make those guys proud, prove them wrong.” Asked if he’ll phone May should the Panthers win today, Blades said no. “I’ll wait until after we beat Notre Dame, West Virginia and all those other guys.”

I do like the fact that Blades seems to care about what the alum and people are saying. I hate that, “we don’t care what others say about us,” line of crap.

The Q&A with Paul Zeise, this week is most interesting.

Q: You said Pitt should have a big year next year. How do you define that? Do you think they should be favored against Notre Dame in the opener?

ZEISE: How do I define a big year? Well, I think Pitt fans would not be delusional to believe the Panthers should win the Big East and perhaps even go undefeated. They do have to visit Nebraska, but who knows how good the Cornhuskers will be in year two of what is shaping up to be the colossal mistake known as Bill Callahan. And yes, Pitt should be favored to beat Notre Dame to open the season. The game is here, Pitt will have about 17 returning starters, including its entire offense (except for Rob Petitti and Justin Belarski). The Panthers other tough spots will be playing West Virginia in Morgantown and Louisville, regardless of where that game is. Still, given the talent returning at Pitt and the fact that there very well could be a lot of energy surrounding the program with a new coach – there is no reason to expect anything less than 9-2 or 10-1 and a trip to the BCS.
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Q: Paul what do you think about Pitt returning to its script Pitt to its helmets?

ZEISE: It is one of the best ideas I’ve heard. Those old helmets are a classic, one of the true symbols of greatness in college football. I don’t mind the Panthers logo on the helmet, although it reminds me of an Arena League team. That scripted Pitt, now, that is a thing of beauty. So it has my vote, but of course, my vote doesn’t count.

Q: Does the resignation of Dave Wannstedt impact his consideration for the Pitt job?

ZEISE: OK, I’ll bite because this is an easy one. His resignation affects his consideration for the Pitt job in that he is now available and Pitt doesn’t need to ask anyone’s permission if they want to talk to him. As far as whether that makes him more or less of a candidate, only time will tell. From what I understand, his desire for the job is not what it once was, so his candidacy may never materialize.

Interesting. My “source” for the Wannstedt to Pitt rumor was that it was all but a done deal, brokered by some of the boosters. Of course, this source also told be back when the Penguins were in bankruptcy that it was all but official that they were moving to Kansas City, so…

He also has some interesting things to say about AD Long. Not to mention another coaching rumor/possibility.