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September 17, 2004

More Prognostications

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 9:02 pm

Yesterday seemed to be the optimism of predictions. Today, the pessimism.

CollegeFootballNews (via Fox Sports) picks Nebraska 27-13.

Stewart Mandel of SI.com doesn’t think Pitt scores a TD, losing 24-3.

From SportsAdvisors.com (also via Fox Sports) comes this commentary about betting the game.

Nebraska is 1-1 SU and 0-1 ATS after losing at home last week to two-touchdown underdog Southern Miss. The Cornhuskers are only 4-6 against the number on the road the past two years, but have covered seven of their last 11 overall.

Pittsburgh beat Ohio 24-3 as a 17-point home chalk in its season opener last week. The Panthers have covered eight of their last 11 as a home pup, but are only 5-8 against the spread at Heinz Field the past two years.

Pitt is still a 4 point underdog. I take those comments to mean they just don’t know about this game. I do know that SportsBook.com has the over/under at a whopping 42.5. I’d bet the under if the wife would actually let me, and I had money, and an online account.

The Unknown

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 8:22 am

That’s really what this game is, isn’t it? We just don’t know what we are going to see from Pitt tomorrow? What about Nebraska? Crowd size and make-up? The game conditions?

The weather has shifted again. The previous few days, it looked like there would be rain for the game, now they are saying it all hits Pittsburgh today and tonight, but nothing on Tuesday. We don’t even know about the weather. For Pitt, it would seem that a rainy game would be best, keep either team from throwing too much, see what the running games could do on offense. Count on the defense to step up. Make it a low scoring affair. (Of course on a personal level, since I have to get up at some ungodly hour to drive from Cleveland, tailgate really early and sit in the stands no rain isn’t a bad thing from that perspective.)

As previously posted, Nebraska will be looking to blitz and bring pressure on Palko and the entire offensive line. That means that the offensive line will have to play its best game. Ever. They know it, but they still have to do it. This is especially true for the guy protecting Palko’s blind side, right tackle, Dale Williams. For Palko, though, he must not to be so ready to rabbit out of the pocket the minute the pressure starts coming. A difficult thing, to be sure, given how well he knows the O-line, but he was a little too willing to run rather than stand in there. Nebraska thinks Palko and the Pitt offense will try to open things up more in this game. That they didn’t show much of the playbook in the Ohio game.

The defense, which isn’t really being talked about too much, will also face the difficult task of battling the Nebraska O-line. Nebraska’s offense has mostly adapted well to the new offense, except for making 11 turnovers in the first 2 games. It was what cost them against Southern Miss.

Mike Prisuta of the Trib. is a bit late on his column about the negatives of former walk-on Joe DelSardo being a starting WR. Yes it’s a sad commentary on the depth and issues of talent and desire at the position that he could win the job. The problem is, the issue of walk-ons and depth was discussed by the beat writers back in training camp, when Walt Harris lost his cool. It’s a little late now to just notice.

In an amusing/embarrassing sidebar, Pitt had an online auction to be the “ultimate fan” for the game. Watch the teams warm-up on the field, go out for the coin toss, sit in a club seat and have food and drink brought to you. The winning bid was nearly $1200. Problem is, the guy who bid the highest for it was a Nebraska fan. Pitt is refusing to let him wear his red gear out for the game, so they turned down the bid.

The Pitt basketball teams (men and women) will be signing autographs before the game. At halftime the men’s team will be introduced and they will receive their Big East (regular season) Championship rings.

Final thing, the weekly Q&A with P-G Pitt beat reporter, Paul Zeise, is out. He gave a very candid and truthful answer that bears reprinting:

Q: Why does Pitt continue to struggle with recruiting in its backyard?

Bob Lichtenfels of Robinson

ZEISE: There are a number of reasons, but one of the biggest is the Panthers haven’t capitalized by winning games when they had momentum. The 2001 season could have been a real turning point as Pitt had just returned to the national dialogue, had brand new facilities, it was the first year in Heinz Field and the Panthers were involved with some of the best kids around. Then Pitt went out and lost to South Florida and fell to 1-5. They did rebound and make it to a bowl but by then, the damage was done. Last year was another chance for Pitt to show it had truly made strides into the big time and we all know what happened there.

Kids want to play at big-time programs and the few windows that Pitt had to prove it was one have closed. There are also a number of Western Pennsylvania high school coaches who have lost confidence in Walt Harris and the program. Once that happens, it is very difficult to have much success. The scary thing for Pitt fans should be that among the top seniors in the WPIAL this year, I can’t think of one who has Pitt among his top two and many don’t even have Pitt on their radar.

All of that being said, let’s not forget that both Tyler Palko and Darrelle Revis were arguably the top players in Western Pennsylvania in their respective classes, so there have been some successes as well. And while I realize that both Andrew Johnson (Miami) and Anthony Morelli (Penn State) were rated higher than Revis, I’m fairly certain Revis is the best player of the three.

Winning makes recruiting a lot easier.

Quick Keys and Some Predictions

Pitt O-line has to be better than last week, just to look as bad.
Kirkley needs to have a big game on the ground.
Receivers have to actually go to the ball, give Palko a little help.
Defense needs to get pressure up front, and stop the run early.
Secondary needs an early interception, and can’t play too far off the receivers.

There will be a pooch punt.
Any booing by the fans at the offense will not be directed at Palko so much as the ineptitude of the O-line and Walt Harris.
One of our group will “fall asleep” during the game from being up too early and tailgating too quickly.
Pitt wins 13-10.

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