First off, I’m actually OK with Oklahoma quarterback Jason White’s beating out Pitt wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald for the Heisman Trophy last night. Sure, Fitzgerald is the better player. But you can’t expect a sophomore to get a fair shake for that award, even if seniority really shouldn’t matter. Still, it would have been great for recruiting if Larry had won.
Second, let me pick six bowl games against the spread, like real men do. So far this season, my record against the spread is 23-24-1. In chronological order, the bowls that I’m most interested in this year are…
THE GMAC BOWL (December 18), LOUISVILLE (+13.5) AT MIAMI OF OHIO: This game is being billed as a battle of quarterbacks: Miami’s future NFL star Ben Roethlisberger vs. Louisville’s mobile Stefan LeFors. I think that anybody would take Roethlisberger over LeFors anyday. But it is Miami’s significant advantages in receiving and tough defense that should make this game get real ugly, real fast. I’ll take another dose of the MAC attack and give the points, please.
THE CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL (December 27), VIRGINIA (-3) AT PITTSBURGH: I only got to watch the Virginia Cavaliers once this season, and only then while being constantly interrupted by my wife and mother-in-law. So take my analysis for what it’s worth. On November 29th, the Cavaliers pasted Virginia Tech 35-21 by scoring 21 unanswered points in the second half. What really stood out to me about that game was Virginia’s line play and short/underneath passing game. Tech couldn’t get off the line to pressure Cavaliers Quarterback Matt Schaub at all. Schaub, subsequently, went 32-for-46 for 358 yards on the day — usually in front of the safeties and in the flats, and frequently (13 times for 145 yards) to tight end Heath Miller. Josh Crockett has a much more knowledgeable and in-depth analysis of this game here. In any case, if Tech’s defense couldn’t stop Virginia, I sincerely doubt that ours can — especially given our inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks or to stop short, underneath passes (remember Toledo?).
So what happens when our offense is on the field as opposed to Virginia’s? Well, Josh Crockett gave us this insight in a comment under here.
One advantage you guys will have against Virginia is the presence of a vertical passing game. They didn’t even bother covering the deep ball against us, because (a) the VT coaching staff doesn’t trust Randall to throw it, (b) he’s inconsistent on the rare occasions they do, and (c) our receivers can’t catch it anyway, with the occasional exception of Wilford. Pitt, with Rutherford and Fitzgerald, doesn’t have that kind of problem. Stacking the box, they held Jones to 25 for 75, and I partially blame predictable playcalling for that (we lost a ton of yardage on stupid-ass delayed handoffs). With a balanced offense, you guys should get your points.
Given what little I saw of the Virginia-Virginia Tech game, Josh’s comment makes sense. So on offense, I do think that we’ll do better against Virginia than Virginia Tech did (given our more balanced offense and deep threats). But I just don’t think that we’ll be able to keep within three points of the Cavaliers with our porous defense. Remember Al Groh, all you have to do is run Wali Lundy… a lot…
I’ll take Virginia to cover, and hope to be wrong.
THE TOYOTA GATOR BOWL (January 1), WEST VIRGINIA (+3.5) AT MARYLAND: I still don’t understand how Maryland just destroyed West Virginia 34-7 way back on September 20 (no, I didn’t see that game… I was busy getting married). In any case, that was a different Mountaineer team than the one that completely destroyed Pitt last month. By New Year’s Day, Rich Rodriguez will have had more than enough time to make his typically high quality adjustments (you know… adjustments… those things that Walt Harris DOESN’T do), and he will have the Mountaineers nicely pissed off over the asskicking they took when the leaves were still on the trees. Even though I got burned by this same pick back in September, I’ll take the Rodriguez-coached, red-assed, revenge-seeking Hoopies again. Gimme the 3.5.
THE ROSE BOWL (January 1), MICHIGAN (+6.5) AT USC: Pete Carroll is too good of a coach to let the Trojans overlook the toughest opponent that they’ll see this year. The way I see it, Michigan and USC have equally dominating defenses, but USC has a slightly better offense and a much better quarterback. So I’ll take the Trojans to barely cover the 6.5 (if the spread were 7.5, I’d probably pick the other way).
Besides, Ohio State and Michigan always suck in the Rose Bowl.
THE TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL (January 2), KANSAS STATE (-7) AT OHIO STATE: As I’ve said before, nobody gets overrated as frequently as Kansas State does — not even Virginia Tech. That being said, the Wildcats match up particularly well against the also overrated (without Clarett, anyways) Buckeyes. Sure Ohio State has one of the best run defenses in the country… but not against speed backs like Chris Perry and Darren Sproles. Add in a good dose of Ell Roberson’s mobility and quick-release arm, and I think that the Wildcats can paste at least seven over OSU’s lethargic offense.
THE NOKIA SUGAR BOWL (January 4), LOUISIANA STATE (+6) AT OKLAHOMA: Bob Stoops humiliates opposing teams when he has the motivation (see Oklahoma State and Texas A&M earlier this year). Bob Stoops now has more motivation to humiliate LSU than he has ever had before: nobody, not even me, thinks that a team which didn’t win its conference deserves to be in the “official” national title game. Better grab an NFL job while you can, Saban. I’ll take the Sooners to cover and share the national title with USC.
So for the 2003-04 bowl season, I got the Red Hawks, Cavaliers, Mountaineers, Trojans, Wildcats, and Sooners: five to cover and one dog. Hopefully, this will put me over .500 for the year.
Real men also make quiche, not chili.
Hail to me stopping the flood of junk mail that I get every day from Sonic’s hamburger joint now… well, from there and from penis enlargement scams…
