Thank God we do have the Backyard Brawl this Saturday, because there just doesn’t seem to be that many other games worth watching on tap. Of course, I’ll probably be too busy dodging flaming debris in Morgantown to watch many games anyways…
PITTSBURGH (no line yet) at WEST VIRGINIA: It’s nice to see the new brothers-in-arms spirit between West Virginia and Pitt due to all of the Big East defections this summer. It’s nice to see that West Virginia still cares more about this rivalry than we do. But it’s especially nice to see Walt Harris and his staff taking this game so seriously. However, closing off practices to the media does make me nervous, in that John Cooper (Harris’s mentor) used to do that right before he’d get the team too tight and blow another Michigan game.
Let’s break my analysis down into “football for idiots” format once again…
When West Virginia has the ball: The Mountaineers have a much more balanced offense than Virginia Tech had. But like the Hokies, the Hoopies clearly prefer running to passing. And they can run well: they ran for 264 yards against Virginia Tech (in comparison, we ran for only 143 against the Hokies). West Virginia’s star running back, Quincy Wilson, is not nearly as fast as Virginia Tech’s stud Kevin Jones (who scorched us for 241 yards last Saturday). However, West Virginia’s offensive line is perhaps even stronger than Virginia Tech’s. Thus, our defensive front must do a far better job of handling the opposing offensive line, closing gaps, not overpursuing plays (which we did FAR too often last week), and stopping the run in general. Otherwise, the Mountaineers will be able to establish the same ground-based, clock-chewing, ball control offense that Virginia Tech came within a few turnovers and other gaffes of successfully imposing on us.
But make no mistake, the Mountaineers can pass too. Starting quarterback Rasheed Marshall (I keep wondering if he looked at any other West Virginia colleges), who sat out last week’s Boston College game with a concussion, will be back for the Backyard Brawl. Marshall threw for a respectable 162 yards against Virginia Tech’s fast secondary. Plus, Marshall is a constant threat to dart out of the pocket and run for a few yards of his own.
To me, this game will be decided, first and foremost, by how well our defensive front can handle WVU’s offensive line, slow down Quincy Wilson, and contain Rasheed Marshall. If we can go one step further and pressure Marshall into making some bad throws every now and then, great. But slowing down Wilson is mandatory. Panther Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads has a tremendous amount of preparation to do this week, as his defense must be much better than it was against Virginia Tech and Kevin Jones. His seemingly cavalier attitude towards his defense’s piss poor performance last week is some cause for concern.
When we have the ball, we will have some trouble running against West Virginia’s unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. Virginia Tech certainly did: they only got 65 yards on the ground against WVU (in comparison, they got 269 yards on the ground against us). Even scarier, the Mountaineers absolutely dominated Tech’s offensive line all game long. Thus, our offensive line will have to work hard to provide any run support at all. And protecting Rod Rutherford may be even harder than it was last week.
Nevertheless, we should be able to pass against WVU’s defense: Boston College did for 326 yards and Virginia Tech did for 146. However, we have to be wary of the Hoopies’s secondary. The Mountaineers intercepted Boston College four times last Saturday, including two picks from Big East Defensive Player of the Week, free safety Brian King. King has grabbed five picks in the last three games, and will be watching Rod Rutherford’s eyes closely.
West Virginia will have a clear advantage on special teams. Big East Special Teams Player of the Week Adam “Pac Man” Jones is a dangerous punt returner who took two to the house at Boston College last week.
So the Mountaineers (like the Hokies) will try to use a ball control offense featuring Quincy Wilson to keep our high-powered passing game off the field. We will, once again, be forced to pass to set up the run. For us to win, we have to (1) slow down Wilson, (2) pass effectively without turnovers, and (3) avoid special teams mistakes — all in the midst of the loudest crowd that Pitt will see this year.
In Mountaineer Field, I feel it is more likely that our team will make mistakes than theirs. Virginia Tech gave us a lot of breaks last week. I’m not so sure that the Hoopies (and their fans) will. I’m waiting for the spread to make my final, official pick. But for now, I’m leaning towards going Bob Smizik (the archetypical self-loathing Panther alumnus) and picking the Mountaineers outright. But cheer up, Pitt fans! Remember that I’m only 19-21 against the spread so far this season. Worse yet, I’m only 3-6 against the spread when picking Pitt games. You didn’t want me taking the Panthers anyways.
PURDUE (+3) at OHIO STATE: Earlier this season, Purdue and Michigan State were the twin Cinderellas of the Big Ten. Each stood on top of the conference, temporarily (as I predicted). Each was built on a high-powered passing game staring an especially talented quarterback and receiving corps.
Then the Michigan Wolverines quickly and efficiently decapitated both of them with a solid defense. Last week, Ohio State dominated Michigan State, slowly shutting down quarterback Jeff Smoker and the Spartan receivers. I can’t see one reason why the Buckeyes shouldn’t be able to do the same to the other Cinderella. I’ll take the Buckeyes to cover.
INDIANA (+19) at PENN STATE: After Penn State put forth a valiant and competent effort against archrival (if not the other way around) Ohio State (or as Penn State players strangely insist on calling it, “O-State”… Can we call you “P-State?”), the Lions went right back to their bumbling ways last Saturday against Northwestern. For three quarters, the Wildcats tried to hand the game to the Nittany Lions, and the Lions steadfastly refused. Finally in the fourth quarter, Penn State went completely Keystone Kops on us and blew the game in truly comic fashion (the deflected pass for a Northwestern touchdown was on SportsCenter’s “Bottom Ten” for the week).
So Penn State seemingly can’t motivate itself except when it’s playing a rival (better get Pitt back on the schedule). Why should they be motivated against the lowly Hoosiers? Why should I believe that PSU can hang 19 on Indiana when they could only hang 13 on Temple? I’ll take the Hoosiers and the points, please.
So I got the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers, and potentially the Mountaineers (I’ll post again on that when Vegas finally gives me a freakin’ spread already).
Hail to my continued complete incompetence in picking Pitt games.