There’s only one game that I’m really interested in this week, as many teams (e.g., the Big Ten) have already packed it in until their bowls. But let me put my disappointing 23-23-1 season record against the spread on the line and discuss that game.
#10 MIAMI (-3.5) AT #20 PITTSBURGH: Since October 11, 2003, the University of Miami has played five real opponents (sorry, Temple). The main thing that stands out about these five games is the appalling number of turnovers committed by the Hurricanes: they were intercepted 9 times and fumbled the ball 18 times — 8 of which were lost. These turnovers cost the Canes games that they otherwise might have won (e.g., against Tennessee and Virginia Tech) and made some victories seem closer than they otherwise would have been (e.g., against Syracuse and Florida State). However, the Hurricanes greatly reduced their turnovers last week (admittedly against Rutgers) by emphasizing the run and tailback Jarrett Payton far more than usual (43 rushes to 17 pass attempts). Given Pitt’s pathetic run defense, I can’t imagine why they won’t emphasize the run again this Saturday.
Miami Quarterback Brock Berlin, as was noted above, has been interception-prone. However, Miami’s aerial attack is still lethal. Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr. is the best in college football, if not exactly the brightest (eh, soldier boy?). Winslow nearly carried the error-prone Hurricanes through the 2003 Fiesta Bowl (against my Buckeyes) all by himself. Wide Receiver Ryan Moore is almost as fast and tall as Larry Fitzgerald. Our secondary will have to keep these burners in front of them while our front pressures Berlin into some of his typical mistakes.
I think that the most important key to this game will be whether or not we can stop the Canes’s ground game. If we can, I suspect that we will be able to pressure Berlin into tossing at least two picks. If not, I can’t imagine why Miami couldn’t drop at least as many points on us as West Virginia did. Thus, our defensive front must do a far better job of handling the opposing offensive line, closing gaps, and not overpursuing plays. Given that Miami’s offensive line is not as physically strong as West Virginia’s (although perhaps faster), I think we can partially accomplish that. I predict that Miami will score about 35 points on us.
On defense, Miami’s main asset is, as always, speed. The Canes limited Syracuse, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech to less than 85 yards through the air each. However, against Florida State’s speed receivers (who are probably more akin to Fitzgerald than anything the Orangepeople, Vols, or Castrated Turkeys have), the Canes gave up 235 passing yards. Furthermore, they gave up 213 passing yards to lowly Rutgers last Saturday (although they also picked off the Knights three times). However, Miami will be able to increase its odds against Fitzgerald and Company by dropping their linebackers into coverage or simply using a nickel or dime set… which they will do if we cannot run the ball.
To me, the second most important key to this game is whether or not we can run the ball enough to keep Miami’s defense honest. We couldn’t do that against West Virginia in the second half. But now we have Brandon Miree back. Being an Ohio State fan, I’m more than aware of how much a great running back can inspire an otherwise average offensive line (look at the difference between OSU’s offensive line with Maurice Clarett and without, even though not one lineman graduated). Besides, Miami has been more than a little suspect against the run versus the Hoopies and Hokies. So I’m predicting a revival of our ground game via Miree. If we can get close to 200 yards on the ground Saturday, opportunities will open up for Rod Rutherford, Kris Wilson, Princell Brockenbrough, and Larry Fitzgerald that have never been there before.
I say we score at least 35 points on the Hurricanes due to Miree’s return and the unique motivation of this truly do-or-die game. Thus, I’ll take Pitt and the 3.5 points, please. And remember that I’ve picked three of the last four Pitt games right against the spread.
Hail to Thanksgiving football games that enable me to avoid direct conversation with relatives.
